Expansion was inevitable - and it's not the end of the world

 I'm taking a class this semester called "History of U.S. Sports," and we actually had a discussion of playoff expansion a few weeks ago.  The professor broke it down for us: who benefits from playoff expansion, and who loses? First the beneficiaries: owners - with more games, they make more money, and cusp teams will be playing meaningful games deeper into the season; players - more players will get the chance to show their stuff in the postseason, and since many of them have playoff series MVP reward triggers in their contracts, they like this; agents - they benefit when their players do; Major League Baseball - more games is more hype, more advertising, and more money; small-market cusp teams - if you're a perennial second- or third-place finisher, this is going to energize your team and your fanbase; networks - more high-stakes games means more viewers, more advertisers, and more money.

So who loses? Big market playoff shoe-ins - teams like the Yankees or Phillies, who nearly always make the playoffs, don't want to see more competition in their way; fans - the more diehard, nostalgic fans see this as an affront (just as they did with the advent of divisional play in 1969 and the Wild Card in 1995 - fans always pine for the good old days, which tend to be whatever was happening when they became a fan).

You can see why the expansion will always win out: most of the beneficiaries are backed by the potential for big bucks, while the losers don't have much sway - diehard fans aren't going to boycott the expanded playoffs in large enough numbers to make up for all the casual fans who will find a one-game playoff infinitely more exciting and digestible than actually paying attention for 162 games (we should face it, as a culture, we love the potential for heroics and heartache in a high-stakes situation).

I actually like this new format (I know, I'm upsetting you, but hear me out): yes, one-game playoffs are inherently unfair, as any fan knows than an inferior team can beat a superior team in one game. But the format SHOULD BE UNFAIR to a Wild Card team who, by definition, is not as good as the Division winner. [I'd actually much rather see a balanced schedule, but that's a rant for another day.] 

The fact is that this will make winning the Division actually mean something - and it hasn't for quite some time.  Teams with the Wild Card locked up have coasted through September for years now, resting up their regulars and rendering the last month of the season essentially meaningless (thus cheating fans who buy tickets).  Under the new system, teams will want to avoid a one-game playoff at all costs, and will play meaningful baseball for longer.

At the end of the day, Major League Baseball is a business, and they will do anything that makes them more money. Playoff expansion has been profitable (in every American sport) every time it has happened. So love it or hate it, it's here to stay.

[And yes, I actually get college credit for discussing these things every week. Last class we discussed playoff expansion, Linsanity, Tim Tebow, and Teddy Roosevelt. I love you, Trinity College.]

The end of an era: Jason Varitek retires

I thought I could hold it together, I really did. And then, about a dozen words into his speech, Jason Varitek began to cry - and all of Red Sox Nation (including yours truly) followed suit.  Tek has been playing for the Boston Red Sox since I was seven years old - I literally cannot recall what any of the catchers who came before him look like.

Jason Varitek is the only Red Sox player I've ever met in real life, and some of you might remember this post, where I posted my favorite pictures of Jason Varitek's Celebrity Putt Putt and gushed about how my life was made complete when I handed the Captain his runaway golf ball.

Over the lifespan of this blog (about three years), I have posted about Varitek forty times (not including this one) - accounting for almost ten percent of all my posts. Though not my current favorite player (if you don't know who that distinction belongs to, you must be new here), Jason Varitek means a lot to me.

Tek is a Red Sox stalwart, a Dirt Dog, a leader. His teammates respect him, and the fans love him. He reduced Red Sox Nation to tears several times over this evening at his retirement press conference with sentiments like thanking Terry Francona for "letting me sail with you and captain your ship," and "The hardest thing to do is walk away from your teammates, and what they meant to you.''

Varitek has received tons of praise from teammates past and present (and some non-Sox) for his loyalty and work ethic (quotes gathered by @Jared_Carrabis):

• "He showed me how to be a player with honesty, hard work and integrity without ever having to say one word." - Jonathan Papelbon
• "He taught me how to be a leader & showed me how to be a champion... It was a honor and a pleasure to have been his teammate." - Johnny Damon
• "In my 23 years of professional baseball I never played with or against a more selfless and prepared player than Jason Varitek." - Curt Schilling
•  "I’ve always admired the way Jason played the game, and I appreciated the opportunity I had to get to know him throughout the years." - Derek Jeter
• "His first care was that his teammates succeeded even before himself. I have never seen a player so prepared for every game." - Mike Timlin
• "Although his leadership will be missed, his legacy in Red Sox history will be forged forever." - Tim Wakefield
• "Tek was hands down one of the best teammates I ever had... he was a true captain in every sense of the word." - Mike Lowell

Jason Varitek was always the consummate professional, even if he's declined offensively in the last few years. He always came prepared, even catching four no-hitters from four different pitchers (and might have had a fifth if Schilling hadn't shaken him off).  And, even though he refuses to autograph the picture, Jason Varitek did this:

 And if nothing else, we'll always love him for that.

Jon Lester: Right-handed?

Jon Lester bats, throws, and golfs lefthanded. But he signs autographs (and so presumably writes) righthanded. It's relatively common for baseball players to bat lefty and throw righty (sometimes the only glove around when they're learning is righthanded, while bats are obviously ambidextous), but I have never heard of someone who writes with their right hand, and does everything else with their left.

Check out the video on Boston.com (Lester starts autographing at about 30 seconds).

 Signed with Jon Lester's right hand.

Pedroia ready to rip

Red Sox or rednecks?

As a native New Hampshirite, I'm well acquainted with what some people might call rednecks. The kind of people who not only like to hunt, they live to tell the tale of the one that got away.  Normally, these types of people are not millionaires, but in recent years the Red Sox have boasted more than a few legitmate rednecks as part of their roster.

First, there's the photographic evidence:

And then we have the terrifying stories, like this one about JD Drew from last Spring Training (courtesy of Boston.com's Extra Bases blog):

Drew said he was in a boat with his son once when they hooked an alligator with a fishing lure. He had his son hold the pole and took position to try and leap on the alligator.

"I figured I could get him myself," he said. "He was about five or six feet."

"With your bare hands?" I asked.

J.D. gave me his best "no, you stupid city boy" look.

"I had a knife," he said.

But the line snapped and the gator got away. J.D. missed his chance.

So next time you read about J.D. missing a game with a bad hamstring and consider complaining, consider that this is a guy who was willing to jump out of a perfectly good boat and attack a man-sized alligator with a knife. 

And now we have an anecdote about panthers, courtesy of Clay Buchholz (and Boston.com's Extra Bases blog):

A Fort Myers resident told me that the woods beyond the practice fields are known to have panthers and wild hogs.

According to Clay Buchholz, who knows of such things, panthers can be five or six feet long. "I'd want to shoot it before it could hunt me," Buchholz said.

New Hampshire would be proud to have them.

No, not THAT Chris Carpenter...

You can follow Carpenter on Twitter: @ccarp37

So we finally know who we'll be getting in exchange for letting Theo head out to Chicago... Chris Carpenter, Cubs pitcher. Our new Chris Carpenter even has the same middle name (John) as the other Chris Carpenter, but ours is ten years younger.

Hopefully he can live up to the other Chris Carpenter in time - he seems to have had a promising start. Just twenty-six years old, Carpenter broke into the bigs at the end of last season, and tossed 9.2 innings over ten games, recording a 2.79 ERA, 7 walks, and 8 strikeouts.

Unsurprisingly, he does not have an entry in the 2012 Bill James Handbook, and he's yet another righthanded option for the bullpen.

The Red Sox and Cubs will each owe the other a player to be named later as part of the compensation deal.

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Bullpen

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow, so I figured I'd better wrap up this segment - with a few disclaimers: despite the fact that we now know Daniel Bard is preparing to be a starter, he will be listed here, as James projected his numbers as a reliever; this is also true of Alfredo Aceves, who has expressed interest in starting again but might be more valuable in the bullpen.

RHP Alfredo Aceves:
2011: 10-2, 114 IP, 42 BB, 80 SO, 2.61 ERA, 2 saves
2012 projection: 8-5, 118 IP, 43 BB, 85 SO, 3.43 ERA, 0 saves
Aceves had some success last season as a starter, but when he was plugged into the bullpen he couldn't get back out.  He has made it clear that he prefers starting, and with the glaring holes in the rotation, he just might get his chance - it looks like James projected him as more of a starter, anyway.

RHP Matt Albers:
2011 projection: 3-5, 73 IP, 34 BB, 51 SO, 4.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 4-4, 64.2 IP, 31 BB, 68 SO, 4.73 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-4, 65 IP, 30 BB, 49 SO, 4.57 ERA, 0 saves
Albers was an acceptable middle reliever for the Sox last season, and it looks like we can expect a comparable performance this season. It's not a fantastic line, but there's a reason that middle relievers aren't closers or starters.


RHP Andrew Bailey:
2011 projection: 4-2, 58 IP, 21 BB, 56 SO, 2.64 ERA, 30 saves
2011: 0-4, 41.2 IP, 12 BB, 41 SO, 3.24 ERA, 24 saves
2012 projection: 4-2, 50 IP, 14 BB, 48 SO, 2.34 ERA, 26 saves
Bailey slightly underperformed last season with the A's, but James is predicting a rebound in 2012.  A word of caution: James' numbers are calculated for Oakland, where Bailey pitched in the AL West... it's possible we see a backslide.  We knew we were saying goodbye to near-certainty in the ninth when Paps shipped off to Philly, but hopefully Bailey can live up to his reputation.

RHP Daniel Bard:
2011 projection: 6-3, 76 IP, 34 BB, 90 SO, 2.72 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 2-9, 73 IP, 24 BB, 74 SO, 3.33 ERA, 1 save
2012 projection: 6-2, 70 IP, 25 BB, 79 SO, 2.31 ERA, 2 saves
We know Bard is coming into camp to be stretched out as a starter, and if he can be half as effective in the rotation as he's been in the eighth inning, that will be one less thing to worry about there - but who will fill the eighth?

RHP Michael Bowden: 
2011: 0-0, 20 IP, 11 BB, 17 SO, 4.05 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 2-2, 30 IP, 12 BB, 24 SO, 4.20 ERA, 0 saves
Bowden is a mystery here. The reason he hasn't been shipped off in a trade is because no other teams know enough about him to risk giving up something of value.  This line suggests a middling performance out of the pen, and if he can eat up some innings, that would be helpful.


RHP Bobby Jenks:
2011 projection: 3-2, 49 IP, 17 BB, 48 SO, 3.12 ERA, 32 saves
2011: 2-2, 15.2 IP, 13 BB, 17 SO, 6.32 ERA, 0 saves
[No 2012 projection]
I'm not sure why there are no numbers for Jenks in 2012 - James does projections for players who have said they're retiring (hello, JD Drew) and those who have been injured far longer than Jenks (like Daisuke Matsuzaka).  In any case, Jenks has already arrived in camp, looking much fitter than last year, so perhaps we'll see him slide into that eighth inning vacancy if he gets his pitching act together.


RHP Mark Melancon:
2011 projection: 2-2, 37 IP, 16 BB, 36 SO, 3.89 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 8-4, 74.1 IP, 26 BB, 66 SO, 2.78 ERA, 20 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 75 IP, 31 BB, 71 SO, 3.84 ERA, 13 saves
These numbers are projections for Houston, so it stands to reason they might not be as impressive in Boston.  I don't know much about Melancon, so I'm excited to see his performance in Spring Training.


LHP Andrew Miller:
2011 projection: 3-5, 65 IP, 43 BB, 54 SO, 5.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 6-3, 65 IP, 41 BB, 50 SO, 5.54 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 70 IP, 47 BB, 58 SO, 5.40 ERA, 0 saves
 Miller was right on his projected numbers last season, so it stands to reason that could happen again. It's not an impressive line, but every bullpen needs a mop-up guy, right?

LHP Franklin Morales:
[No 2011 projection]
2011: 1-2, 46.1 IP, 19 BB, 42 SO, 3.69 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-3, 51 IP, 26 BB, 42 SO, 4.41 ERA, 0 saves
Morales has a good BB/SO ratio, and acceptable innings and ERA - he's another one to watch in the next few weeks.


Other options for the pen who don't have numbers in James' Handbook include LHP Felix Doubront, RHP Clayton Mortenson, RHP Stolmy Pimentel, and RHP Junichi Tazawa.  Doubront is intriguing since there aren't too many lefties on the above list - but he came to camp last year out of shape.  Tazawa could be a starter or come out of the pen - or not make the team at all. He's finally coming back from Tommy John surgery, so it will be interesting to see how he performs.  The bullpen is in a state of transition from end to end: for the first time in years we don't have a set closer or eighth inning an or long reliever or anything else. A challenge for Manager Bobby Valentine, and we'll get to see this started tomorrow!