2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Bullpen

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow, so I figured I'd better wrap up this segment - with a few disclaimers: despite the fact that we now know Daniel Bard is preparing to be a starter, he will be listed here, as James projected his numbers as a reliever; this is also true of Alfredo Aceves, who has expressed interest in starting again but might be more valuable in the bullpen.

RHP Alfredo Aceves:
2011: 10-2, 114 IP, 42 BB, 80 SO, 2.61 ERA, 2 saves
2012 projection: 8-5, 118 IP, 43 BB, 85 SO, 3.43 ERA, 0 saves
Aceves had some success last season as a starter, but when he was plugged into the bullpen he couldn't get back out.  He has made it clear that he prefers starting, and with the glaring holes in the rotation, he just might get his chance - it looks like James projected him as more of a starter, anyway.

RHP Matt Albers:
2011 projection: 3-5, 73 IP, 34 BB, 51 SO, 4.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 4-4, 64.2 IP, 31 BB, 68 SO, 4.73 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-4, 65 IP, 30 BB, 49 SO, 4.57 ERA, 0 saves
Albers was an acceptable middle reliever for the Sox last season, and it looks like we can expect a comparable performance this season. It's not a fantastic line, but there's a reason that middle relievers aren't closers or starters.


RHP Andrew Bailey:
2011 projection: 4-2, 58 IP, 21 BB, 56 SO, 2.64 ERA, 30 saves
2011: 0-4, 41.2 IP, 12 BB, 41 SO, 3.24 ERA, 24 saves
2012 projection: 4-2, 50 IP, 14 BB, 48 SO, 2.34 ERA, 26 saves
Bailey slightly underperformed last season with the A's, but James is predicting a rebound in 2012.  A word of caution: James' numbers are calculated for Oakland, where Bailey pitched in the AL West... it's possible we see a backslide.  We knew we were saying goodbye to near-certainty in the ninth when Paps shipped off to Philly, but hopefully Bailey can live up to his reputation.

RHP Daniel Bard:
2011 projection: 6-3, 76 IP, 34 BB, 90 SO, 2.72 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 2-9, 73 IP, 24 BB, 74 SO, 3.33 ERA, 1 save
2012 projection: 6-2, 70 IP, 25 BB, 79 SO, 2.31 ERA, 2 saves
We know Bard is coming into camp to be stretched out as a starter, and if he can be half as effective in the rotation as he's been in the eighth inning, that will be one less thing to worry about there - but who will fill the eighth?

RHP Michael Bowden: 
2011: 0-0, 20 IP, 11 BB, 17 SO, 4.05 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 2-2, 30 IP, 12 BB, 24 SO, 4.20 ERA, 0 saves
Bowden is a mystery here. The reason he hasn't been shipped off in a trade is because no other teams know enough about him to risk giving up something of value.  This line suggests a middling performance out of the pen, and if he can eat up some innings, that would be helpful.


RHP Bobby Jenks:
2011 projection: 3-2, 49 IP, 17 BB, 48 SO, 3.12 ERA, 32 saves
2011: 2-2, 15.2 IP, 13 BB, 17 SO, 6.32 ERA, 0 saves
[No 2012 projection]
I'm not sure why there are no numbers for Jenks in 2012 - James does projections for players who have said they're retiring (hello, JD Drew) and those who have been injured far longer than Jenks (like Daisuke Matsuzaka).  In any case, Jenks has already arrived in camp, looking much fitter than last year, so perhaps we'll see him slide into that eighth inning vacancy if he gets his pitching act together.


RHP Mark Melancon:
2011 projection: 2-2, 37 IP, 16 BB, 36 SO, 3.89 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 8-4, 74.1 IP, 26 BB, 66 SO, 2.78 ERA, 20 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 75 IP, 31 BB, 71 SO, 3.84 ERA, 13 saves
These numbers are projections for Houston, so it stands to reason they might not be as impressive in Boston.  I don't know much about Melancon, so I'm excited to see his performance in Spring Training.


LHP Andrew Miller:
2011 projection: 3-5, 65 IP, 43 BB, 54 SO, 5.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 6-3, 65 IP, 41 BB, 50 SO, 5.54 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 70 IP, 47 BB, 58 SO, 5.40 ERA, 0 saves
 Miller was right on his projected numbers last season, so it stands to reason that could happen again. It's not an impressive line, but every bullpen needs a mop-up guy, right?

LHP Franklin Morales:
[No 2011 projection]
2011: 1-2, 46.1 IP, 19 BB, 42 SO, 3.69 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-3, 51 IP, 26 BB, 42 SO, 4.41 ERA, 0 saves
Morales has a good BB/SO ratio, and acceptable innings and ERA - he's another one to watch in the next few weeks.


Other options for the pen who don't have numbers in James' Handbook include LHP Felix Doubront, RHP Clayton Mortenson, RHP Stolmy Pimentel, and RHP Junichi Tazawa.  Doubront is intriguing since there aren't too many lefties on the above list - but he came to camp last year out of shape.  Tazawa could be a starter or come out of the pen - or not make the team at all. He's finally coming back from Tommy John surgery, so it will be interesting to see how he performs.  The bullpen is in a state of transition from end to end: for the first time in years we don't have a set closer or eighth inning an or long reliever or anything else. A challenge for Manager Bobby Valentine, and we'll get to see this started tomorrow!

Tough luck, Timmy

 [Cartoon from Boston Dirt Dogs - I'm unsure of the date.]

Tim Wakefield was yet again denied his 200th win - despite leaving the game with a comfortable 8-5 lead.  Once again, the bullpen just couldn't do it for the iron man knuckler.

Unsurprisingly, in public Wakefield downplayed the personal importance of a 200th career win with the Red Sox, instead emphasizing the team angle, that the important thing now is for the RED SOX to win games, and get to the postseason: “If it happens, it happens.  If it doesn’t, it doesn’t change what I’ve done. I’d like it to happen. But more importantly, I think, is for us to get into the postseason. … That’s our ultimate goal.”

He's correct, of course, that not reaching 200 wins wouldn't change what he's done for the Sox in his nineteen-year career (seventeen years in Boston).  The fans (including yours truly) will still love and respect him, and I think we can all agree that we'd rather see a Pennant and a World Series win than Wakey's 200th W.

That said, I would REALLY like to see Tim Wakefield reach this milestone.  Over the course of his career he's been a team player (with a few notable, passive-aggressive exceptions in the last couple of years), and a perennial contributor to charity endeavors of all kinds. The cool thing about a team like the Red Sox is that not only are the fans all pulling for Wake, the players are, too. Judging by Daniel Bard's reaction to blowing the lead last night, I think we can safely say that he might have been more upset that Wakey was.

Personally, I'm not giving up hope, yet. The season has a few more weeks to go - and even if Tim Wakefield gets moved to the bullpen for the duration of the postseason (not unlikely), he has a good sporting chance of reaching his milestone.

Five Minute Musings

The theme for this edition of Five Minute Musings is "Things I loved last night" (yes, yes... "That's what she said").

1. Starting pitching: Though we had $68 million dollar man Josh Beckett going for us, I had essentially conceded the game before it started, due to the fact that the Royals had Mr. Cy Young himself, Zack Greinke, warming up in the next bullpen. Despite Don and Jerry's stat that Greinke gave up just two runs all season in the fifth inning last year, he gave up back to back homers to, of all people, Jeremy Hermida and Jason Varitek. And speaking of...


2. Bench players: Honestly, when I saw the lineup included Varitek, Hermida, and Lowell, it looked to me like Tito was conceding the game, as well. However, all three men acquitted themselves admirably. Hermida bashed his first ever homer in a Sox uniform, to tie the game in the fifth inning, while the much maligned Captain homered TWICE, including the initial go-ahead run, and Lowell went 1-for-4 with some plays in the field.

3. The Sox bullpen: After meltdowns in the last few games, the bullpen crew finally got back on track, as Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez each pitched a scoreless inning of relief last night. I have to admit, I was thisclose to writing a post bashing the bullpen yesterday afternoon. I'm glad I abstained.


4. MORE home runs: Kevin Youkilis notched his first homer of the young season, while Dustin Pedroia went yard for the first time since the Opener. Youk's homer led off the eighth inning, while Pedey's came in the ninth, with Ellsbury on base. Pedroia's was particularly impressive, as it came after he was nailed by a Greinke fastball in the fifth inning.

5. The Royals' bullpen: This might sound mean, but I LOVE the sight of someone warming for the Royals (with the possible exception of closer Soria). I Tweeted the following thought during Friday's contest: "I love the Royals bullpen. This is beyond infatuation. This is BEYOND BASEBALL." Yes, it's a bad play on the MLB ads, but it's true all the same. Let's see if we can get back into that pen this afternoon, shall we?