2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Bullpen

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow, so I figured I'd better wrap up this segment - with a few disclaimers: despite the fact that we now know Daniel Bard is preparing to be a starter, he will be listed here, as James projected his numbers as a reliever; this is also true of Alfredo Aceves, who has expressed interest in starting again but might be more valuable in the bullpen.

RHP Alfredo Aceves:
2011: 10-2, 114 IP, 42 BB, 80 SO, 2.61 ERA, 2 saves
2012 projection: 8-5, 118 IP, 43 BB, 85 SO, 3.43 ERA, 0 saves
Aceves had some success last season as a starter, but when he was plugged into the bullpen he couldn't get back out.  He has made it clear that he prefers starting, and with the glaring holes in the rotation, he just might get his chance - it looks like James projected him as more of a starter, anyway.

RHP Matt Albers:
2011 projection: 3-5, 73 IP, 34 BB, 51 SO, 4.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 4-4, 64.2 IP, 31 BB, 68 SO, 4.73 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-4, 65 IP, 30 BB, 49 SO, 4.57 ERA, 0 saves
Albers was an acceptable middle reliever for the Sox last season, and it looks like we can expect a comparable performance this season. It's not a fantastic line, but there's a reason that middle relievers aren't closers or starters.


RHP Andrew Bailey:
2011 projection: 4-2, 58 IP, 21 BB, 56 SO, 2.64 ERA, 30 saves
2011: 0-4, 41.2 IP, 12 BB, 41 SO, 3.24 ERA, 24 saves
2012 projection: 4-2, 50 IP, 14 BB, 48 SO, 2.34 ERA, 26 saves
Bailey slightly underperformed last season with the A's, but James is predicting a rebound in 2012.  A word of caution: James' numbers are calculated for Oakland, where Bailey pitched in the AL West... it's possible we see a backslide.  We knew we were saying goodbye to near-certainty in the ninth when Paps shipped off to Philly, but hopefully Bailey can live up to his reputation.

RHP Daniel Bard:
2011 projection: 6-3, 76 IP, 34 BB, 90 SO, 2.72 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 2-9, 73 IP, 24 BB, 74 SO, 3.33 ERA, 1 save
2012 projection: 6-2, 70 IP, 25 BB, 79 SO, 2.31 ERA, 2 saves
We know Bard is coming into camp to be stretched out as a starter, and if he can be half as effective in the rotation as he's been in the eighth inning, that will be one less thing to worry about there - but who will fill the eighth?

RHP Michael Bowden: 
2011: 0-0, 20 IP, 11 BB, 17 SO, 4.05 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 2-2, 30 IP, 12 BB, 24 SO, 4.20 ERA, 0 saves
Bowden is a mystery here. The reason he hasn't been shipped off in a trade is because no other teams know enough about him to risk giving up something of value.  This line suggests a middling performance out of the pen, and if he can eat up some innings, that would be helpful.


RHP Bobby Jenks:
2011 projection: 3-2, 49 IP, 17 BB, 48 SO, 3.12 ERA, 32 saves
2011: 2-2, 15.2 IP, 13 BB, 17 SO, 6.32 ERA, 0 saves
[No 2012 projection]
I'm not sure why there are no numbers for Jenks in 2012 - James does projections for players who have said they're retiring (hello, JD Drew) and those who have been injured far longer than Jenks (like Daisuke Matsuzaka).  In any case, Jenks has already arrived in camp, looking much fitter than last year, so perhaps we'll see him slide into that eighth inning vacancy if he gets his pitching act together.


RHP Mark Melancon:
2011 projection: 2-2, 37 IP, 16 BB, 36 SO, 3.89 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 8-4, 74.1 IP, 26 BB, 66 SO, 2.78 ERA, 20 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 75 IP, 31 BB, 71 SO, 3.84 ERA, 13 saves
These numbers are projections for Houston, so it stands to reason they might not be as impressive in Boston.  I don't know much about Melancon, so I'm excited to see his performance in Spring Training.


LHP Andrew Miller:
2011 projection: 3-5, 65 IP, 43 BB, 54 SO, 5.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 6-3, 65 IP, 41 BB, 50 SO, 5.54 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 70 IP, 47 BB, 58 SO, 5.40 ERA, 0 saves
 Miller was right on his projected numbers last season, so it stands to reason that could happen again. It's not an impressive line, but every bullpen needs a mop-up guy, right?

LHP Franklin Morales:
[No 2011 projection]
2011: 1-2, 46.1 IP, 19 BB, 42 SO, 3.69 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-3, 51 IP, 26 BB, 42 SO, 4.41 ERA, 0 saves
Morales has a good BB/SO ratio, and acceptable innings and ERA - he's another one to watch in the next few weeks.


Other options for the pen who don't have numbers in James' Handbook include LHP Felix Doubront, RHP Clayton Mortenson, RHP Stolmy Pimentel, and RHP Junichi Tazawa.  Doubront is intriguing since there aren't too many lefties on the above list - but he came to camp last year out of shape.  Tazawa could be a starter or come out of the pen - or not make the team at all. He's finally coming back from Tommy John surgery, so it will be interesting to see how he performs.  The bullpen is in a state of transition from end to end: for the first time in years we don't have a set closer or eighth inning an or long reliever or anything else. A challenge for Manager Bobby Valentine, and we'll get to see this started tomorrow!

Royal Pedigree?

Though I didn't take this photo, I was present at Felix Doubront's MLB debut in June, and he struck out Manny Ramirez during his first return to Fenway Park.

It's always about the pitching. Despite two rain delays totaling two hours and forty-three minutes (according to the estimable and meticulous Peter Abraham), Clay Buchholz went six innings and allowed no runs, scattering five hits and three walks.

Daniel Bard relieved then Buch in the seventh inning, and stumped the Jays; despite a wild pitch and a walk, the presumptive close-in-waiting got through the frame with two strikeouts, and without letting up a run.

However, for me, the most interesting pitching performance was by youngster Felix Doubront, who came in to pitch the eighth inning while the Sox were leading by just three runs. As we have come to expect from the young southpaw, Doubront got through the inning with a small hiccup of an infield single.

The Red Sox would score two runs in the bottom of the eighth, and so the warming-Papelbon sat back down and allowed Doubront to finish the contest.

Despite a triple(!) by David Ortiz, I think the most exciting aspect of the game was the pitching of Felix Doubront, who proved (once again) that he is capable of pitching in important situations. Sure, this wasn't the World Series, or even a particularly high-stakes game, but it wasn't a blowout, either.

According to SoxProspects.com, Doubront

"utilizes a 91-94 mph fastball, a very good 79-81 mph changeup with screwball action, and an impressive-but-inconsistent mid-70s curveball. Flawless and fluid downward pitching motion with excellent control. Deceptive delivery, hitters don't pick up the ball until late, causing his fastball to look a little faster. Used to struggle against left-handed batters, but seemed to fix this issue in 2009. He has a reserved and modest demeanor, but is aggressive and poised on the mound. "

Well, we're certainly seeing all that, and I think Doubront's promise extends far beyond being a poised reliever. If so, I think he needs a nickname... Prince Felix, anyone?

A study in contrast

Friday night, Beckett was the deer...

The last two games in Texas have been polar opposites. Friday night, we had a heartbreaker: Josh Beckett was handed a six-run lead early in the game, and he couldn't hold on. Last night Jon Lester pitched a masterful 8 innings of shutout ball.

On Friday, the offense absolutely exploded, scoring nine runs on thirteen hits, including five homers, but the pitching was a mess, though the bullpen managed to hold on for a few innings until Tim Wakefield gave up the game-winning home run in the bottom of the eleventh.

Yesterday, the offense was somewhat anemic, only managing one run until the top of the ninth, when they scored two additional insurance runs. However, the pitching last night was phenomenal. Jon Lester was masterful, and though Scott Atchison got into a spot of trouble in the bottom of the ninth, Felix Doubront came in with the tying run at the plate and closed out the game without allowing a run.

Given my druthers, I would like to see a combination of the two performances going forward: sparkling pitching performances coupled with explosive run production for the rest of the season would be great. Daisuke Matsuzaka goes this afternoon, so we'll see if my wish gets granted.

I think I can...

The Red Sox are... dare I say it... turning things around. They picked up a game on New York last night - something they failed to do while IN New York - and while the Rays won, I think this team still has a shot.

Call me an optimist (it might be the first time), but I still believe this team can make the playoffs, and do well there. Dustin Pedroia is tentatively expected back next week, and while Kevin Youkilis is not coming through that door, Pedey could provide the spark they need to go on a tear.

Last night's game was a bit of an oddity, as Daisuke Matsizaka was brilliant in the first inning, and fell apart later on, but his teammates had his back, scoring seven runs, and the bullpen was pretty good. Youngster Felix Doubront was particularly impressive, working out of a sixth-inning bases-loaded jam by striking out Travis Snider.

Doubront did allow Jose Bautista to tie the game in the seventh inning with his 35th homer of the season, but again the bats came through (!), with a Mike Lowell home run and a Jed Lowrie RBI double. Papelbon closed it out with limited theatrics, and the Sox notched their sixty-fifth win of the season.

Clay Buchholz is currently going for number sixty six... Let's go, boys!