I'm betting on Lester

Lester will target the strikezone just like he targeted the deer/boar/whatever on this hunting trip.

After two fantastic starts that sadly ended in Red Sox losses, Jon Lester will take the mound tonight at friendly Fenway, looking for his first win of 2012.  Meanwhile, the 2011 American League Champion Rangers will trot out Colby Lewis, who has a win and a no-decision so far this season.

You all know my opinion of the "win" statistic: it's kind of like the cubic zirconia of baseball stats, shiny, pretty, but mostly worthless.  A lot of wins look nice, but since you can be charged for a loss while giving up one earned run in nine innings (or an unearned run, for that matter), and earn a win after giving up fifteen runs in five, wins and losses aren't a great way to test a pitcher's caliber.

That being said, Colby Lewis is a talented pitcher, with 15 strikeouts and a sparkling 1.42 ERA so far this season (stats accrued against the White Sox and Mariners, but still impressive). Last year Lewis helped to anchor a pennant winning rotation after the departure of Cliff Lee (with the help of new-Angel CJ Wilson).  However, Lewis does have a history of struggling against the Red Sox, with just 2 wins and three losses with an ERA of 5.01 in his career against Boston.

On the other hand, Lester's one loss and 2.40 ERA  so far this season come at the hands of the Tigers (against AL Cy Young and MVP winner Justin Verlander, no less) and the up-and-coming Blue Jays.  Over the course of his career, Jon Lester has a 3-1 record with a 3.48 ERA against the Rangers.

Add to these statistics the fact that Lester has been pretty dominating so far this season - even if the number in the "win" column doesn't back that up.  I also think it's safe to say that Lester's teammates are itching to get him a win after failing to do so in Detroit and Toronto.  Lester is a popular - if reserved - man in the clubhouse, and it's clear his teammates hold him in high esteem.

I see an early hook for Lewis tonight - the Sox took the weekend and teed off against the Rays (with the exception of yesterday morning) scoring 31 runs to the Rays' 12 in four games.  The bats have been heating up in Boston, and the way Lester has been going, he won't need that much run support to come out victorious.

A look on the bright side.

I'm tempering my alarm, using every ounce of logic I can come up with to keep the hot bubble of panic from rising up inside me. It's only six games. It's one more win than we had last year at this time. We'll lose 5-of-6 in July and no one will notice.  Sometimes it works. More often, I get more creeping thoughts encroaching on my logic: The bullpen is in shambles. Bobby V is a nutcase (though admittedly nowhere near as nutty as Ozzie Guillen - but that's another post). Youkilis is falling apart. And on and on and on.

But enough of those crazy voices in my head (is it just me, or do you guys have them too?). There is plenty to be excited about so far this season, and if you - like me - sometimes have difficulty bringing these to mind, here they are in a convenient list.

1. Jon Lester is in mid-season form, and seems to be taking the whole "make up for September" thing very seriously. Lester has traditionally struggled in April, but he has absolutely dominated in his first two outings, and the fact that he doesn't have a win yet is just more evidence for how useless a stat the win can be.
2. Daniel Bard's first start was promising, though the surface numbers (5IP, 5 earned runs, and a loss) are less than ideal. Bard recorded six strikeouts, allowed just one walk, and induced eighteen swings-and-misses at his pitches. His BABIP was way above average (a fancy way of saying more balls fell in for hits than is normal - the law of averages should make up for that over a full season).
3. Dustin Pedroia looks ready, willing, and able to carry this team on his back all the way to the playoffs. The sparkplug second baseman began late rallies multiple times this week, seemingly willing the Red Sox to score runs. I don't think the Red Sox will be awarding a "C" to a player any time soon, but we all know who the leader is inside that clubhouse.
4. Adrian Gonzalez seems to have come to understand us. Last year he was calling for fans to relax after the 0-6 start.  Not so this year, after an off-season of Sox mea culpas, Gonzo was out there claiming that the first game in Toronto was a must win. Gonzo came prepared - he has six RBIs so far this season.
5. [This one is more personal, so I apologize in advance.] I am in the United States of America, in Red Sox Nation, where I can watch baseball on my TV.  At this time last year I was in Dakar, Senegal, praying that the power/WiFi wouldn't go out, and paying a classmate 10,000 CFA (about $20) to use his mlb.tv account. This is much better.

It's all going to be okay. This team is solid (though the bullpen is more suspect than I would prefer), and over the course of 2012 they are going to win a lot of games. There will probably be more drama than we've been used to since Manny took off, courtesy of Bobby V., but what's Boston baseball without a few shenanigans?

Red Sox Photo Day Outtakes

As Mike Aviles says to open the video, "I love this part of the year:"



From Youkilis making fun of Pedroia's Alma mater (Arizona State), to Jon Lester proclaiming that he's not an English major, to Darnell McDonald claiming he can't read, this video is sure to have you laughing. And, in case you were wondering, Clay Buchholz is not a morning person.

Now I will never get that image out of my head

When asked about the differences between being a starter and a reliever, Daniel Bard cited the pre-game routine. Relievers hang out and mess around, while each starter has his own ritual he'll follow every five days.

"Every guy has their own thing. [John] Lackey walks around with no pants on, bounces a baseball, eats peanut butter and jelly. Jon Lester got his headphones in, but he's still walking around, talking to guys. Curt Schilling was a guy that nobody could talk to 'til the last pitch was thrown. I just try to be me whatever that is."

The latter two I can live with - in fact, they are exactly what I imagined Lester and Schill doing before their starts. As for the revelation about Lackey? THAT was an image I NEVER needed in my head. So as my apology to all of you for putting it in YOUR head, here's a video of Philly Jonathan Papelbon impersonating Terry Francona:

Jon Lester: Right-handed?

Jon Lester bats, throws, and golfs lefthanded. But he signs autographs (and so presumably writes) righthanded. It's relatively common for baseball players to bat lefty and throw righty (sometimes the only glove around when they're learning is righthanded, while bats are obviously ambidextous), but I have never heard of someone who writes with their right hand, and does everything else with their left.

Check out the video on Boston.com (Lester starts autographing at about 30 seconds).

 Signed with Jon Lester's right hand.

Red Sox or rednecks?

As a native New Hampshirite, I'm well acquainted with what some people might call rednecks. The kind of people who not only like to hunt, they live to tell the tale of the one that got away.  Normally, these types of people are not millionaires, but in recent years the Red Sox have boasted more than a few legitmate rednecks as part of their roster.

First, there's the photographic evidence:

And then we have the terrifying stories, like this one about JD Drew from last Spring Training (courtesy of Boston.com's Extra Bases blog):

Drew said he was in a boat with his son once when they hooked an alligator with a fishing lure. He had his son hold the pole and took position to try and leap on the alligator.

"I figured I could get him myself," he said. "He was about five or six feet."

"With your bare hands?" I asked.

J.D. gave me his best "no, you stupid city boy" look.

"I had a knife," he said.

But the line snapped and the gator got away. J.D. missed his chance.

So next time you read about J.D. missing a game with a bad hamstring and consider complaining, consider that this is a guy who was willing to jump out of a perfectly good boat and attack a man-sized alligator with a knife. 

And now we have an anecdote about panthers, courtesy of Clay Buchholz (and Boston.com's Extra Bases blog):

A Fort Myers resident told me that the woods beyond the practice fields are known to have panthers and wild hogs.

According to Clay Buchholz, who knows of such things, panthers can be five or six feet long. "I'd want to shoot it before it could hunt me," Buchholz said.

New Hampshire would be proud to have them.

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Rotation

I've waited long enough to see if we'll be getting any new and exciting pitching additions - Spring Training is fast approaching (and Lester is already in camp!), so it's high time to finish out the 2012 projections.

LHP Jon Lester:
2011 projection: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA, 82 BB, 193 SO
2011: 15-9, 31 starts, 191.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 75 BB, 182 SO
2012 projection: 15-9, 31 starts, 192 IP, 3.61 ERA, 74 BB, 180 SO
I thought James was being too pessimistic about Lester in his projection for 2011, and he turned out to be pretty much right on the nose.  Hopefully Lester can top this, but these numbers certainly aren't anything to scoff at.

RHP Josh Beckett:
2011 projection: 10-9, 26 starts, 168 IP, 3.86 ERA, 49 BB, 155 SO
2011: 13-7, 30 starts, 193 IP, 2.89 ERA, 52 BB, 175 SO
2012 projection: 12-9, 29 starts, 186 IP, 3.63 ERA, 53 BB, 169 SO
James underestimated Beckett last year, and I think there's a good chance he's done so again. Beckett came into camp last year with something to prove after his injury-marred 2010, and this year he'll have a chip on his shoulder about the way last year ended.


RHP Clay Buchholz:
2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO
2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO
2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO
A lot of things went wrong in 2011, but losing Buchholz for the entire second half should not be overlooked: a healthy Clay and we probably would have been playing in October. That said, Buchholz has the Sox counting on him to be healthy, and he'll want to show that they were right to trust him - I think James is spot on.

Now comes the guesswork: will Alfredo Aceves be starting in 2012? How about Daniel Bard, who has also expressed interest? Will Tim Wakefield get invited to camp, or will we finally be saying goodbye? For the purposes of this post, I'll only be doing the projections for players James projected assuming they were starters (this means Aceves and Bard will be in the bullpen post - even if Valentine has them in the rotation).

RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka:
2011 projection: 10-9, 27 starts, 173 IP, 3.85 ERA, 73 BB, 158 SO
2011: 3-3, 7 starts, 37.1 IP, 5.30 ERA, 23 BB, 26 SO
2012 projection: 4-4, 12 starts, 74 IP, 4.14 ERA, 37 BB, 66 SO
If you're like me, when Matsuzaka underwent Tommy John surgery last June, you were probably thinking "good riddance." I'd had enough of Matsuzaka, who has never been the pitcher for the Sox that he seems to be in Japan.  But on the bright side, he can't get much worse, and maybe after TJ he'll be better for his presumptive midseason return.

LHP Andrew Miller:
2011 projection: 3-5, 14 starts, 65 IP, 5.68 ERA, 43 BB, 54 SO
2011: 6-3, 12 starts, 65 IP, 5.54 ERA, 41 BB, 50 SO
2012 projection: 3-5, 12 starts, 70 IP, 5.40 ERA, 47 BB, 58 SO
Obviously James isn't expecting Miller to start too much this year - and with those projected numbers, hopefully he won't.


RHP Tim Wakefield:
2011 projection: 6-6, 14 starts, 115 IP, 4.07 ERA, 37 BB, 72 SO
2011: 7-8, 23 starts, 154 IP, 5.12 ERA, 47 BB, 93 SO
2012 projection: 4-4, 12 starts, 80 IP, 4.16 ERA, 24 BB, 48 SO
Obviously, Wake's not even signed right now, and it would be putting Valentine in a rough position if they invited the 45-year-old knuckleballer to Spring Training. But for some reason, James thinks Wakefield's ERA will fall by nearly a run, but that he'll throw barely half the innings he did last year. We'll see.

After the top three (37- 27 combined), the dropoff is pretty steep. Though I wasn't sad to see the back of John Lackey for Tommy John surgery of his own, his absence really exposes how shallow this rotation is. Hopefully Cherington can pull something out of thin air.  In-house possibilities include Junichi Tazawa, Stolmy Pimentel (though he's just 22 and needs some more seasoning), Felix Doubront, Aceves, and Bard (though the latter two would leave GAPING holes in the bullpen). None of these players were included in James' 2012 Handbook as starters, so their numbers aren't in this post.

(Not so) Bold Predictions

Erik Bedard's first attempt at a win in a Red Sox uniform was thwarted yesterday by his own bullpen and former Sox pitcher Justin Masterson.  The game wasn't pretty if you were rooting for the local nine, especially since it means we're in a tie for first with the Yankees, who are (conveniently) at Fenway RIGHT NOW for a three game set.

This man is pitching tonight - I think he can take them.

I'm going to go on record here and predict that the Sox take two out of three, with the Bronx Bombers taking the middle game (CC Sabathia over John Lackey).  Jonny "K" Lester should have no problems taking care of Bartolo Colon (remember that time he swung the bat so violently he was on the DL for the rest of the season, and then didn't want to come out 'pen so he ran home early? Good times.). 

Sabathia is likely to be his brilliant self, and since I've learned to not expect much from Lackey, I'll concede that game (CC is on my fantasy team, so at least there's that).  I'm counting on Josh Beckett to take his recent excellence to the mound to take on Freddy Garcia - no slouch himself at 10-7.

If the Sox can take two of three, it puts them one game ahead of New York in the East - and every game counts.

Flirting with .500

Just when you think they're going to turn it around for good, and reach .500 for the first time since Opening day in Texas, they go and hand in a heartbreaker like last night's.  Jonny Lester wasn't himself last night,and he would be the first to say so, admitting that he let his emotions get to him during a first inning where he gave up three runs and the calls just weren't going his way.

Red Sox pitching gave up three home runs in last night's game, and the bats just couldn't keep up, despite homers from Adrian Gonzalez (2), and David Ortiz.  This was not the way the Sox wanted to open the series, with a loss, and Lester only able to pitch 5.1 innings, meaning that the bullpen was more heavily taxed than they would have hoped.

Tonight we have John Lackey going against Jesse Litch, before the Sox head south to New York for a three-game set.  There's an off-day in between, and the rotation has been shuffled so that Clay Buchholz,Josh Beckett, and Lester will pitch against the Bronx Bombers, and Daisuke Matsuzaka won't go until we face the Orioles next week.

Someday the Red Sox will get back to .500.... Maybe it will be this Friday.

Jon Lester is a BOSS.

The offense exploded for seven runs last night, as Jon Lester notched his fourth win of the young season.  The game seemed to go off without a hitch, and everything went as if scripted by Theo during the offseason: the starter threw 7 fantastic innings, and handed the ball off to the bullpen who finished the job.  All the while the lineup was performing well, as everyone but JD Drew and Dustin Pedroia had at least one hit.

So how good was Lester? Since MLB.tv seems to hate me in Argentina, I didn't actually get to watch him pitch, but the stat line is quite impressive.  Lester went seven full innings, scattered six hits, gave up just a single run (a homer from Trumbo), one walk, and eleven strikeouts. Yes, eleven strikeouts.

Peter Abraham of the Globe stated in the Extra Bases blog that Lester could be among the best of his generation, and I can't find many reasons to disagree.  The man is only 27 years old, and he owns a career winning percentage of of .714 (65-26).

Despite traditionally struggling mightily in April, Lester managed to win three games last month, and continued his dominance last night.  It's right about now that I'm wishing I had managed to draft him for my fantasy team - that was a failure on my part.

I suspect this isthe year that Lester finally gets his due, even among the more casual fans.  Of course, even the Cy Young winner can get ignored when he pitches for a small-market team (somewhere, King Felix weeps).  But Lester looks to be building a strong resume for the award (though it's very early), and the Red Sox are anything but small-market.  More than one sports periodical picked Jon Lester as the 2011 AL Cy Young winner, and he's not taking any prisoners along the way.

I'm guessing he's also really fun to watch during this stretch - it's too bad MLB.tv won't let me.

Lester is a champion (especially against the O's)

The Red Sox were just 9-9 against the Baltimore Orioles last season, 4-4 against the Cleveland Indians, and 1-6 against the Chicago White Sox.  Beyond the 2010 Parade of Carnage, this poor performance against mediocre and bad teams was a large part of the reason that the Red sox missed the playoffs.

Thus far, the 2011 Sox are 1-2 against the Orioles, and 0-3 against the Indians (they are 10-8 against everyone else), and they need to do better. Jon Lester set the tone by turning in a 2-run, eight inning performance even when, according to Adrian Gonzalez, "his command was not quite there, but he still goes out there and gives us eight innings and two runs. He’s definitely a Top 5 pitcher in the league."

 Interestingly enough, Jon Lester has never lost to the Orioles, owning a 14-0 record with a 2.33 ERA.  You could chalk this statistic up to the Orioles now being a very good team while Lester's been in the league, but he certainly has notched losses to other mediocre teams, so it's likely an anomaly.  The southpaw did note that he enjoys playing at Camden Yards, but that's hardly reason for his ridiculous run of success against the O's.

I had to monitor the game on ESPN Gamecast last night, since MLB.tv was busy hating on me, and worked only for a very short time during the bottom of the second inning.  However, it was clear that Lester was battling, and he was finally supported by the bats.  Dustin Pedroia's RBI squibbler in the seventh inning to score Carl Crawford put the Red Sox on top for good, and then RBIs by Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jacoby Ellsbury (2) settled the final score at 6-2.

The Sox head home starting tonight, and will play the Mariners, Angels, and Twins, before heading out on the road again.  I see the turnaround starting now... for real this time.

Off day thoughts...

Since I've last blogged, a lot has gone down in Red Sox Nation, most of it bad (I'm sorry for neglecting my duties here, but I'm on Spring Break on a beach in Africa, and internet is hard to come by). The Sox have yet to win their third game, and they currently have the worst record in baseball.  I know we all keep saying that they're too good for this, that something's gotta give eventually... but when is "eventually"? And how do we get it to come faster?

Sadly, I don't have any answers for you (other than this fantastic list of suggestions compiled by Peter Abraham over at the Boston Globe), but at this point we have no other recourse but to keep believing in this team.  We know they're better than this. THEY know they're better than this.

What needs to happen immediately, though, is for everyone to start hitting.  Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez, JD Drew, David Ortiz, and, strangely enough, Jed Lowrie, are all hitting at an acceptable clip (Lowrie is leading the team at .438 in 7 games).  As for the other members of the team? They need to get their act together - soon, and preferably with runners in scoring position.

Champion.

The pitching rotation can take a lesson from Mr. Joshua Patrick Beckett on how to be a badass who beats CC Sabathia by stymieing a Yankees lineup that might be aging but is still formidable.  Jon Lester did a passable job the other night, holding the Rays to just three runs, but if the bats aren't going to get it done, three runs is too many.  Perhaps a rainout and day off will get things back in order: John Lackey will be skipped this time through the rotation, so he has extra time to get his act together while the other hurlers stay (mostly) on schedule.

They will snap out of this skid. They HAVE to snap out of this skid.  If it were possible to will a team to victory, Boston's devoted fans would make sure the Red Sox never lost a game, but we live in the real world.  The games have to be played, and the players have to prove themselves.  We're 4.5 games out of first with 151 left to play. I'd day it's definitely doable.

The Adventures of Josh 'n' Jon: Opening Day Starter Edition

In the least shocking news since the third reelection of FDR, Jon Lester has officially been named the Opening Day starter for the Boston Red Sox. As Manager Terry Francona said, after the first game, the rotation order is sort of a non-issue until the playoffs, but I'm sure it's nice for Lester to get that recognition.

In case you were concerned about 2009 and 2010 Opening Day starter Josh Beckett getting jealous, there's no need to fret; the big Texan is here to assure you that there are absolutely no hard feelings: "It's a really big honor and he should be proud of it. It's something he has earned."

How much of this is genuine, and how much is just for the press/team unity/warm fuzzies? It's difficult to say. Beckett has never been one to censor his feelings about his own performances, or even to hide his disdain when reporters ask him redundant questions. There's no doubt that he was extremely disappointed by his injury-marred 2010, and it's probably true that he believes Lester deserves it more this year.

However, that's not to say that the righthander isn't a little jealous, or even a bit bitter. Just a few years ago, Beckett was the young phenom who made fans excited with every pitch. He was a World Series Champion at a young age, just like Lester, with the added exhilaration of being a leader on a young and talented team, and then being a centerpiece of the trade that sent Hanley Ramirez to Florida.

Now, despite the shiny new contract extension Beckett inked last year, he's all but forgotten. All the press about Boston's rotation is the 1-2 punch of young guns Lester and Clay Buchholz, or the well-documented struggles of the enigmatic Daisuke Matsuzaka. I'm quite certain Josh is absolutely aching to be the big-game pitcher he was only a few years ago, with all the respect and accolades that comes with that.

I don't see this causing any discord in the clubhouse. For one, I really don't imagine Lester and Beckett to be the kinds of people who sit around and talk about their feelings - they strike me as more of the "act first, question later" types. Mostly, both pitchers (along with the rest of the staff) are too professional to let something like this affect their performance - but here's hoping Beckett uses it as motivation to return to the form he had just a few years back.

* * *

For those of you interested in my travels, I am currently in Dakar, Senegal. There's a lot of random MLB gear around here, and sadly, much of it says "NEW YORK" on it - and it's not usually the National League team, either. So far, I've seen jerseys and/or hats for the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Rangers, and Nationals (who knows?), as well as quite a few Celtics and Lakers jerseys. I'm having a great time so far, and trying to spread Red Sox Nation across the globe.

Red Sox, wine, and charity - a perfect combination

The last time that Red Sox players partnered with Charity Wines, I had to ask my mother to buy them so that I could keep the bottles. Now, at the glorious age of twenty-one, I will proudly drive myself to the store and buy a bottle each of ChardonClay and CabernAce.

Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester are just the latest in a line of Sox stars to put out wines for charity with the aid of Longball Cellars/Charity Wines. Their predecessors include Manny Ramirez, Curt Schilling,Tim Wakefield (2007), David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, Kevin Youkilis (2008), Jacoby Ellsbury, and Josh Beckett (2010).

Buchholz's vino will benefit the Jimmy Fund, while the proceeds from Lester's will go to the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. Neither slugger will get a penny of the proceeds - they all go to charity - so there's no reason not to go out and buy a few of each (the bottles themselves are pretty cool, if you ask me).

Both varieties will be available in the New England region starting in May, after a May 5th Wine Tasting and Launch Party at the House of Blues - sorry kids, members of the media and wine community only. [Those of you living outside the geographical confines of Red Sox Nation can purchase your bottles via the Charity Wines website.]

The press release from Charity Wines contained the following information about the two charitable foundations:

The Jimmy Fund
Clay Buchholz can be untouchable, proven by the no-hitter he tossed in just his second big league start. Yet, he reaches back and connects with those in need across the community. Buchholz is a Co-Captain of the Jimmy Fund, an official charity of the Boston Red Sox, and a portion of proceeds from ChardonClay support the Jimmy Fund in the fight against cancer at Boston's Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, helping to raise the chances of survival for children and adults with cancer locally and around the world. Cheers. Learn more at www.jimmyfund.org.

Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
Jon Lester knows the importance of overcoming barriers in life and on the diamond. Less than two years after being diagnosed with lymphoma, he pitched the biggest game of his life, helping his ballclub win a world championship. That's why proceeds from Jon Lester's CabernAce support Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the development of targeted immunotherapies. This pitch helps researchers maximize the body's own ability to strike out disease so lymphoma patients can win their own games in life. Learn more at www.fhcrc.org.

[Thanks to Charity Wines for emailing me the press release!]

10 minute musings [Live from Delhi!]

A free morning for me = a blog update for you:


1. Indian cricket fans are just as crazy as Red Sox Nation. I know I said in the last post that the match I went to was poorly attended - and it was. However, it was the West Indies playing the Netherlands, in Delhi, so it wasn't surprising that there weren't too many Dutch or West Indian fans in attendance... it's sort of a long trip from Europe or the Caribbean. There were lots of India fans there, chanting "IN-DIA! IN-DIA!" and it sort of reminded me of Red Sox fans chanting "Yankees suck!" while we're playing the Blue Jays.

2. I'm very heartened by David Ortiz's spring thus far. I know it's silly to count spring performances as indicators of what's to come, since many players have torn up Spring Training only to flop over the course of the season, and vice versa. But it still seems like a good sign that he's swinging the bat well, especially given how lost he looked in the opening months of 2009 and 2010. Here's hoping we skip the struggle this year - though if Papi falters, we have a few more big bats to fall back on.

3. Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez seem to be adjusting well. Though it's possible that Crawford is still creeped out by the whole private investigator/due diligence/much ado about nothing fiasco of a few weeks back, he seems to be at home with the rest of his teammates thus far. Quick to assure the media that no, he and Jacoby Ellsbury are NOT in competition, that they'll be great TOGETHER, Crawford is a team player (who wouldn't bet against himself in a footrace). Gonzalez is ahead of his schedule for recovery after last season's shoulder surgery, but in his case I think no news is good news... I can't wait to see them both in a game.

4. The Lester-Buchholz show is back - hopefully with some more reinforcements. Jon Lester is giving a strong showing so far this spring, and Clay Buchholz is determined to replicate (or surpass) his last season's results. Besides the little hiccup when Josh Beckett got nailed in the head shagging fly balls, the pitching staff looks to be gearing up for a strong season. They have a lot to prove after last year's poor performances - and they know it. Here's hoping they're up to the challenge.

5. I very much admire Jed Lowrie. This is a bit off-topic, since it's hardly baseball-related, but Lowrie is doggedly completing the last few requirements for his degree in political science from Stanford. Lowrie left in 2005 to play baseball, and though it would be easy to decide that he could go back when his playing career is over, he's opting to get it done now, even as he's fighting for playing time in a camp full of All-Stars. Full disclosure: one of my majors is poli-sci, so I have a soft spot for fellow students of politics.

6. I don't buy the whole "Yankees are the underdogs" thing. No, the Yankees did not have the high-profile acquisitions that the Sox did this offseason, but they are NEVER the underdogs. All you need to do is read their lineup to understand that, and though they are most definitely getting old, they are also a roster full of superstars. Add to that the ever-present potential for Brian Cashman to go out and make a big splash with Yankee dollars and prospects, and I'll most definitely be keeping an eye on the Bronx Bombers this season (hopefully in the rear-view mirror).

7. The kids are alright. Okay, so I didn't much like that movie, but the Sox prospects are performing well this spring. Though Lars Anderson is most likely trade bait, and Felix Doubront is destined for the bullpen for the time being, I'm always excited to see some young kids do well. Jose Iglesias is making me long for 2012 despite the enormous potential for this season's squad. According to more than a few people, he has the potential to be a star AND the solution to the revolving door at shortstop.

8. I'm [more than] slightly concerned about Daisuke Matsuzaka. Hardly groundbreaking news, but Matsuzaka's spring has been less than inspiring, and he's as much of an enigma as ever. Luckily, no one is counting on him to be anything more than a serviceable fifth starter - hopefully he can live up to that, at least.

9. No news is good news on Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis. I was always a believer in the Sox last season, but when Pedey and Youk were officially down for the count I started to lose hope. Both are back for 2011 with no limitations, and we haven't heard much from them, which to me must mean that they are going to be A-OK - hopefully that's the case.

10. I'm both excited for and dreading April 1st. I'm going to be in Dakar, Senegal when the Red Sox open up their season against the Texas Rangers, and internet there is a great unknown. If I have a fast, reliable connection (and time - unlikely, but I'll try to make some) I'm going to buy MLB.tv and try to watch as many games as possible. If not, I'll be reliant on sporadic emails and access to internet cafes. Here's hoping it's the former!

[All factual info in this post was gathered from boston.com - fantastic coverge, especially for a baseball-starved student stranded in Delhi, India.]

2011 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Rotation

Yesterday we established that the 2010 version of the Red Sox performed at a poorer than expected level because of pitching, and not (exclusively) injuries. This was particularly surprising because the rotation was the one thing we all figured we wouldn't have to worry about: Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, and Matsuzaka - and we even had Wakefield, who, despite his age and lack of consistency, is a hell of a sixth man.

However, there were injuries to Beckett and Matsuzaka, and Lackey was rather less productive than we'd collectively hoped (I suppose you could say he was LACKing - get it?!?). The bullpen was a volitile mess, especially if you look at their performance without counting the stats from Bard and Paps (who had his worst season, but still superior to most relievers).

So what's in store for next year? No one can know for sure, but the Bill James Handbook at least offers predictions based on math I don't really understand, rather than total guesses pulled out of thin air.

So, without further ado, here are James' predictions for members of the presumptive pitchers for the 2011 Sox (accompanied by their 2010 numbers):

Josh Beckett:2010: 6-6, 21 starts, 127.2 IP, 5.78 ERA
2011 prediction: 10-9, 26 starts, 168 IP, 3.86 ERA
Beckett's lost season was a HUGE part of the reason the Sox missed out on the playoffs in 2010, and even a reasonable bounce back like the one James is predicting would give the Red Sox a fantastic edge.

Clay Buchholz:2010: 17-7, 28 starts, 173.2 IP, 2.33 ERA
2011 prediction: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA
I'm going to go on record here and guess that James is underestimating Clay. The dominance we saw last season was not a fluke, and I'm confident Buchholz can be consistent in 2011. There's a reason Theo hasn't accepted any trade offers for Clay, and what we saw last year was just the beginning.

John Lackey:2010: 14-11, 33 starts, 215 IP, 4.40 ERA
2011 prediction: 13-12, 33 starts, 227 IP, 3.89 ERA
When I actually saw Lackey's 2010 stats, I have to confess to being a bit surprised that he was such an innings-eater. If he can live up to these predictions as the third/fourth starter, I will be content.

Daisuke Matsuzaka:2010: 9-6, 25 starts, 153.2 IP, 4.69 ERA
2011 prediction: 10-9, 27 starts, 173 IP, 3.85 ERA
Again, I'll take it. No, Matsuzaka has never been the ace we thought we were getting way back in the offseason of 2007, but (aside from his lost 2009) he's been more than adequate for the back of the rotation, and I expect he'll continue to be consistent(ly infuriating to watch).

Jon Lester:2010: 19-9, 32 starts, 208 IP, 3.25 ERA
2011 prediction: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA
I think Lester will do better than this, especially if he can figure out how to avoid the awful April we've come to expect from him. James badly underestimated Lester in his predictions for 2010, and I think he's cut the southpaw short again this year.

Tim Wakefield:2010:4-10, 19 starts, 130 IP 5.34 ERA
2011 predictions: 6-6, 14 starts, 115 IP, 4.07 ERA
If Wake gets to start at all in 2011, it will be spot starts here and there. The knuckleballer's career is winding down, and though it's hard to say goodbye, this season will likely be his last.

I'm going to leave the relievers out of this equation for now, since roles and such will be in flux, and the Sox bullpen is likely going to see some serious revamping before Opening Day (which is MUCH too far away). But, if the members of the rotation listed above can match their projections (and if one or two of them *cough*Buchholz*Lester*cough* can exceed them), I think 2011 will be a much more productive year for the Sox, at least pitching-wise.

"No-hitters are boring."

Jon Lester looks like he is SO BORED after tossing his no-hitter.

As I've said many times before, most of my friends do not care about baseball. This is fine with me. It is also completely acceptable that many of them do not understand the most basic underpinnings of the game, and that they have no interest in my explanations. To each his own, and all that jazz.

However, I totally flipped out on a friend of mine at lunch today, because he had the gall to make fun of baseball with logic that was not only flawed, but based on ideas which are just WRONG.

Thinking he was being witty (in actuality sounding foolish to anyone who knows ANYTHING about the game), he made some comment about how baseball is boring and/or stupid because a no-hitter is considered amazing, and it's a game in which nothing happens. Silly me assumed he knew what a no-hitter was, and asked whether he thought spectacular defensive plays to preserve a no-hit bid were "boring."

Gosh, DeWayne Wise, this is SO BORING. I bet even perfect-game author Mark Buehrle is bored looking at this.

This led to the realization that he had absolutely NO IDEA of what a no-hitter really is. He was under the impression that "no-hitter" meant that no batter made any sort of contact with the ball, and that the whole game was essentially the pitcher and the catcher tossing the ball back and forth, and that it meant that the pitcher would have accumulated twenty-seven strikeouts during the game.

I explained to him that this was, in fact, fallacy in the highest degree, explained the true definition, and added that the record for most strikeouts in a single game is twenty, held by Roger Clemens (twice), Kerry Wood, and Randy Johnson. He continued to argue with me, claiming that some pitcher had struck out twenty-seven "At least once in the last forty years."

At this point, I gave up. Clearly, not only did he have no interest in what was actually true, he couldn't possibly understand the degree of difficulty that would be involved in actually striking out twenty-seven Major League batters, and why any true baseball fan would LOVE to see a game like that, in which, by his definition, "nothing ever happens."

Jason Varitek must have had the most BORING career ever... I'm sure he was practically falling asleep during those four no-nos he caught.

So far, so good...

Keep it going, Clay!

Jon Lester started the series off right last night, going seven shutout innings, allowing just 2 hits and one (unearned) run. David Price was good, but Jonny KKKKKKKKKK Lester was better. Bard and Paps came in to close things out, and while the closer managed to put the tying run on base, he did not allow a run.

The bats were all over Price: though they scored just three runs on the lefty, there were hard-hit balls all over the place, and the Sox notched ten hits.

Victor Martinez in particular had a great night, going yard twice (both off of Price), for just his second and third home run since coming off the disabled list with a broken thumb. Papi had a double (and scored a run), and Darnell McDonald legged out a triple to round out a powerful showing for the Sox.

Tonight has the American League ERA leader, Clay Buchholz, facing off against Tampa Bay righty Matt "The Spitter" Garza. Despite being a generally good pitcher against the Sox (3.64 career ERA; 7-3 record), Garza's ERA of 3.62, while respectable, is over a run higher than Buchholz's 2.26.

Overall, I think the Sox have a good chance of taking this one... and you know I'll be watching, hoping, and rooting for another win.

Rainy Day Blues

I was planning on seeing King Felix go against Johnny K Lester at this afternoon's matinee... However, the weather has other plans.

Because of the rainout, I will be seeing LAST night's starters, David Pauley and Josh Beckett, while people with tickets to last night's tilt get to see MY boys. Needless to say I'm very upset about it, but hoping for a good game anyway.

Go SOX!

A study in contrast

Friday night, Beckett was the deer...

The last two games in Texas have been polar opposites. Friday night, we had a heartbreaker: Josh Beckett was handed a six-run lead early in the game, and he couldn't hold on. Last night Jon Lester pitched a masterful 8 innings of shutout ball.

On Friday, the offense absolutely exploded, scoring nine runs on thirteen hits, including five homers, but the pitching was a mess, though the bullpen managed to hold on for a few innings until Tim Wakefield gave up the game-winning home run in the bottom of the eleventh.

Yesterday, the offense was somewhat anemic, only managing one run until the top of the ninth, when they scored two additional insurance runs. However, the pitching last night was phenomenal. Jon Lester was masterful, and though Scott Atchison got into a spot of trouble in the bottom of the ninth, Felix Doubront came in with the tying run at the plate and closed out the game without allowing a run.

Given my druthers, I would like to see a combination of the two performances going forward: sparkling pitching performances coupled with explosive run production for the rest of the season would be great. Daisuke Matsuzaka goes this afternoon, so we'll see if my wish gets granted.