Opening Day optimism

I'm guessing that most of you, like me, are on the redsox.com mailing list, and you also woke up to the above picture in your email.  It's a beautiful photo (and really just makes me want to sneak into Fenway in the early morning with a camera) to start off Opening Day - here's hoping at that time tomorrow the Sox will have kicked off a winning streak.

By chance, I was at the final home game of last season, and like most of September, the day ended in a loss (to the Orioles, no less).  At the time, I wasn't too worried, since there six games still to play and I figured they would clinch soon enough. I won't rehash it now, on the morning of a fresh start, but you all know how that worked out.

I know that there are mixed feelings about the movie Fever Pitch, but there's one scene from it in particular that encompasses how I feel today (and on all Home Openers): the main character's season tickets have arrived, and after he's embraced the delivery guy, he and his friends open the box, touching and smelling and caressing the tickets.  "A new season," says one of them with awe, "a clean slate." The main character smells his sheet of tickets and declares that "this smells like the year."

From all the way in Connecticut, this smells like the year. Soon enough we'll have forgotten this 1-5 start, the bullpen will shake out the kinks, and the field players will find their groove.  Opening Day is about unbridled optimism, and since I won't be able to watch this year (I have to commentate Trinity baseball this afternoon), I'm broadcasting my good feelings now.

I'm predicting Josh Beckett will go out there looking to prove himself after an abysmal start last week in Detroit, and pitch deep into the game.  The lineup will rise to the occasion of performing in front of the Fenway crowd, and those who have been struggling (I'm looking at you Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis) will get in in gear.

Sox take Opening Day, and for my final prediction, Dustin Pedroia goes yard - because that's just what he does on Opening Day.

A look on the bright side.

I'm tempering my alarm, using every ounce of logic I can come up with to keep the hot bubble of panic from rising up inside me. It's only six games. It's one more win than we had last year at this time. We'll lose 5-of-6 in July and no one will notice.  Sometimes it works. More often, I get more creeping thoughts encroaching on my logic: The bullpen is in shambles. Bobby V is a nutcase (though admittedly nowhere near as nutty as Ozzie Guillen - but that's another post). Youkilis is falling apart. And on and on and on.

But enough of those crazy voices in my head (is it just me, or do you guys have them too?). There is plenty to be excited about so far this season, and if you - like me - sometimes have difficulty bringing these to mind, here they are in a convenient list.

1. Jon Lester is in mid-season form, and seems to be taking the whole "make up for September" thing very seriously. Lester has traditionally struggled in April, but he has absolutely dominated in his first two outings, and the fact that he doesn't have a win yet is just more evidence for how useless a stat the win can be.
2. Daniel Bard's first start was promising, though the surface numbers (5IP, 5 earned runs, and a loss) are less than ideal. Bard recorded six strikeouts, allowed just one walk, and induced eighteen swings-and-misses at his pitches. His BABIP was way above average (a fancy way of saying more balls fell in for hits than is normal - the law of averages should make up for that over a full season).
3. Dustin Pedroia looks ready, willing, and able to carry this team on his back all the way to the playoffs. The sparkplug second baseman began late rallies multiple times this week, seemingly willing the Red Sox to score runs. I don't think the Red Sox will be awarding a "C" to a player any time soon, but we all know who the leader is inside that clubhouse.
4. Adrian Gonzalez seems to have come to understand us. Last year he was calling for fans to relax after the 0-6 start.  Not so this year, after an off-season of Sox mea culpas, Gonzo was out there claiming that the first game in Toronto was a must win. Gonzo came prepared - he has six RBIs so far this season.
5. [This one is more personal, so I apologize in advance.] I am in the United States of America, in Red Sox Nation, where I can watch baseball on my TV.  At this time last year I was in Dakar, Senegal, praying that the power/WiFi wouldn't go out, and paying a classmate 10,000 CFA (about $20) to use his mlb.tv account. This is much better.

It's all going to be okay. This team is solid (though the bullpen is more suspect than I would prefer), and over the course of 2012 they are going to win a lot of games. There will probably be more drama than we've been used to since Manny took off, courtesy of Bobby V., but what's Boston baseball without a few shenanigans?

Red Sox Photo Day Outtakes

As Mike Aviles says to open the video, "I love this part of the year:"



From Youkilis making fun of Pedroia's Alma mater (Arizona State), to Jon Lester proclaiming that he's not an English major, to Darnell McDonald claiming he can't read, this video is sure to have you laughing. And, in case you were wondering, Clay Buchholz is not a morning person.

Pedroia pondering a Twitter debut

Pedroia's Twitter would be as awesome as this photo. 

This could be the greatest thing to hit Red Sox Nation in months.

Pedroia has indicated that he's tired of the Laser Show and Muddy Chicken nicknames, so while most suggestions were along those lines, I think Pedey will shy away from them.  Destroyah15, perhaps? Or TitoIsMyBitch?

Whatever the name ends up being, I think we can rely on Pedroia's Twitter presence to be just as entertaining at his interviews  -and perhaps even more so. After all, he'll have a direct line to the fans, which could potentially remove any filter he has with the press.

I've always assumed that the Pedey quotes that trickle down to the fans are the tamest of them all, and I would love to see Pedroia's wit uncensored. Of course, the Red Sox would frown upon anything TOO extreme, but I think we depend on some quality laughs if Pedroia ends up live online.

This could be the greatest news of my life. Hopefully Darnell McDonald proves very persuasive.

'Surf is up' for Dustin Pedroia

Dustin Pedroia is my favorite baseball player, and it's not just because of his dashing good looks:

No, it's all about the attitude.  Not only is Pedey willing do do whatever it takes for the team (including his claim that he would move back to shortstop), but he always has a cocky comment to share.

Today, Pedroia was reminded that he struggled somewhat when hitting leadoff in the past (his homer to lead off the 2007 World Series notwithstanding), and he didn't let it slide:

“I hit. 214? It’s good because if they would have kept me in another 20 games I would have hit .414,” he said. “Ride the wave. It’s a wave, dude, How’s a heart beat go? It goes up and down, just like baseball. If you flatline you’re dead. If you flatline in baseball, I’ve never seen it in baseball. Ride the wave, dude. Surf is up.”

Yes, Pedey is a California boy, but he's from Woodland, a suburb of Sacramento. He hardly grew up riding any waves. Still, the metaphor works - and I have no doubt that Pedroia will once again prove any naysayers wrong if he ends up in the leadoff spot. I almost can't believe there are any doubters left - but I hope they keep coming, since their snark leads to Pedey's greatest quotes.

[Quote from WEEI.]

Pedroia ready to rip

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Infielders

I'm doing this a little differently from last year.  Since there is a new manager who will have his own new ideas about the makeup of the lineup, I won't even try to guess what it will be for 2012.  So there will be four projections posts: this one for infielders (and DH), one for outfielders, one for starting pitchers, and one for relief pitchers.

1st base, Adrian Gonzalez:
2011 projection: 161 games, .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG, 33 HR, 102 RBI
2011: 159 games, .338 BA, .410 OBP, .548 SLG, 27 HR, 117 RBI
2012 projection: 160 games, .301 BA, 387 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 105 RBI

 Last year's projections were calculated by James and his team with the assumption that Gonzalez would be playing in San Diego's cavernous Petco Park for 81 games, so it only makes sense that he surpassed those numbers in the friendly confines of Fenway Park.  James predicts a precipitous drop off from last year to this one - but I don't think it will be quite so steep.


2nd base, Dustin Pedroia:
2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI
2011: 159 games, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, 21 HR, 91 RBI
2012 projection: 143 games, .299 BA, .378 OBP, .469 SLG, 17 HR, 73 RBI

James consistently underestimates Pedey.  I guess it was understandable for last year, since no one was sure how he would bounce back from his foot injury in 2010, but I think we know what to expect from Pedroia at this point.  If he's not doing well, or if the team isn't, Pedroia WILLS himself to do better. I don't put much stock in "intangibles," but if they exist, the Sox second baseman has them.


3rd base, Kevin Youkilis:
2011 projection: 151 games, .294 BA, .398 OBP, .507 SLG, 25 HR, 95 RBI
2011: 120 games, .258 BA, .373 OBP, .459 SLG, 17 HR, 80 RBI
2012 projection: 135 games, .281 BA, .389 OBP, .489 SLG, 21 HR, 86 RBI

It's no secret that Youk had a rough 2011.  In fact, given his sports hernia and bursitis in his hip (requiring surgery), it's impressive that he managed to play in 120 games.  Given his injuries and the Red Sox collapse, it's easy to forget the fantastic first half that Youkilis had, even being named to the AL All-Star Team.  Assuming all went well this offseason, expect a rebound season for Youkilis.

Shortstop, Marco Scutaro:
2011 projection: 153 games, .266 BA, .339 OBP, .374 SLG, 10 HR, 60 RBI
2011: 113 games, .299 BA, .358 OBP, .423 SLG, 7 HR, 54 RBI
2012 projection: 143 games, .271 BA, .341 OBP, .378 SLG, 9 HR, 59 RBI

Though somewhat short of spectacular, Scutaro has been one of the better Red Sox shortstops in recent memory (not injury-riddled like the now-departed Jed Lowrie, nor error-prone as the abominable Julio Lugo).  He's been quite steady, both in the field and at the plate, and he'll likely continue that pattern.


Shortstop, Jose Iglesias:
2011: 10 games, .333 BA, .333 OBP, .333 SLG, 0 HR, 0 RBI
2012 projection: 50 games, .241 BA, .277 OBP, .277 SLG, 0 HR, 10 RBI

Everyone knows that this job is Iglesias' for the taking.  If he hits as James predicts, we'll see more of Scutaro for 2012 - if he exceeds these projections, we'll likely witness the shift away from Scuaro and into the foreseeable future. 

Catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
2011 projection: 110 games, .249 BA, .323 OBP, .422 SLG, 12 HR, 43 RBI
2011: 103 games, .235 BA, .288 OBP, .450 SLG, 16 HR, 56 RBI
2012 projection: 95 games, .245 BA, .311 OBP, .426 SLG, 13 HR, 45 RBI

Salty's playing time will likely depend on how skillful Kelly Shoppach turns out  to be as a backup.  As one of the only players pulling his own weight in September, I have faith in Saltalamacchia's ability to hold up the mantle of head catcher and game-caller that Jason Varitek held for so long.


Catcher, Kelly Shoppach:
2011: 87 games, .176 BA, .278 OBP, .339 SLG, 11 HR, 22 RBI
2012 projection: 85 games, .227 BA, .318 OBP, .431 SLG, 11 HR, 31 RBI

As you might remember, Shoppach was drafted by the Red Sox originally, before spending time in Cleaveland and Tampa Bay.  He bats righthanded, and hits better against lefties than Salty, but given the power in the Sox lineup, his playing time will probably depend more on how well the pitchers like throwing to him.


Catcher, Ryan Lavarnway:
2011: 17 games, .231 BA, .302 OBP, .436 SLG, 2 HR, 8 RBI
2012 projection: 77 games, .275 BA,.351 OBP, .527 SLG, 13 HR, 41 RBI

Obviously, the Red Sox are not going to be carrying three catchers, and the projections were calculated before the move for Shoppach.  If Shoppach struggles mightily, and Lararnway is tearing it up in Pawtucket, we might see him sooner rather than later.  Otherwise, expect to see the Sox give him some more time to develop.


Utility infielder, Nick Punto:
2011: 63 games, .278 BA, .388 OBP, .421 SLG, 1 HR, 20 RBI
2012 projection: 99 games, .243 BA, .329 OBP, .315 SLG, 1 HR, 23 RBI

I don't know too much about Nick Punto, but it's unlikely that he'll get the 99 games of playing time James predicted when it was assumed he'd be playing for the Cards.  If we can get passable offense and defense from our utility guy, I'll be happy.

Utility infielder, Mike Aviles (thanks to Paul for the reminder!):
2011: 91 games, .255 BA, .289 OBP, .409 SLG, 7 HR, 39 RBI
2012 projection: 101 games, .279 BA, .311 OBP, .423 SLG,  8 HR, 38 RBI

As Paul said in the comments, if Youkilis can't hack it for whatever reason, we'll be seeing quite a bit of Aviles this season.  The numbers are more than satisfactory from a utility man - but James is predicting a lot of playing time for him.


Designated hitter, David Ortiz:
2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI
2011: 146 games, .309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG, 29 HR, 96 RBI
2012 projection: 150 games, .277 BA, .378 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 104 RBI

Though the Red Sox struggled mightily in April, Papi escaped his usual struggles last spring, and surpassed most of James' predictions for him - here's hoping he can do that again, even at age 36.

[Final note: players not with the Red Sox at the beginning of 2011 do not have their 2011 projection numbers, because I left the 2011 Bill James Handbook in my dorm room - the Sox projections were recovered from last year's projection post.]

Breaking up a family: The legendary bond of Pedey and Tito

SO. MUCH. LOVE.

 
If you read this blog even semi-regularly, you know that I am an unabashed and shameless fangirl of both Tito and Theo.  Was there more that the two of them could have done this season? How much of the blame lies in the hands of the manager who makes the on-field decisions? How much lies with the GM who built the team? And, perhaps most importantly, what portion should lie at the feet of the athletes on the field?

The tales spilling out now that the season has been brought to a violent and screeching halt are eye-opening, in a word.

A commenter on Boston.com this morning, referring to this piece.

Globe writer Dan Shaughnessy claims that the parting of Tito Francona and the Red Sox was anything but a mutual decision: " [John] Henry has had Francona in his crosshairs for a couple of years. Ultimately, Francona was not enough of a numbers guy to satisfy Boston’s Moneyball boss."  Francona tells a different story: he wasn't getting through to the players, the constant scrutiny of managing a baseball team that is so much more than that to so many people, he thought eight years was enough.

As usual with this particular corner of blogdom, I look at this travesty through the eyes of one Dustin Pedroia.  Pedey and Tito have a well-chronicled bond; they passed straight through legendary bromance to honorary father-son territory long ago.  They trade jokes about their receding hairlines, about Pedey's height, and Tito's age, they played (ah, the past tense) cribbage before every game, and by all accounts enjoyed a refreshingly honest and functional relationship.

So if I'm heartbroken over the skipper's departure, it stands to reason that Pedroia would feel even stronger, and he didn't disappoint: "I love him. He’s given me every opportunity in the world and given me the respect to play the game with a freedom, and that’s what he allows us players to do. Geez, man, he’s done everything for me and everything for my family ... he’s done everything for me in the five years I’ve been in the big leagues. My heart’s broken for him and I wish he was back and I wish I could have played my whole career for him. It’s going to be hard. I’m sure he’ll come back a better manager and a better person for it. Us, as an organization, we’re going to move forward together."

 

If that didn't make you tear up a bit, you have no heart (or you're not blinded by a a deep-seated love and admiration for everything that our second baseman does and says).  Pedey also threw in a couple of jabs about player responsibility, but if you want to read those you can go to the source.  This post exists for the sole purpose of mourning the now defunct dream team of Dustin Pedroia and Terry Francona.  I'll be drinking for them tonight.

Happy Birthday, Dustin Pedroia!

 
As you all know, Dustin Pedroia is my favorite baseball player. In fact, he's top ten favorite people, ever.  Today just happens to be his twenty-eighth birthday, and so I thought, what better way to honor Pedey than by publishing a list of my favorite Pedroia-isms and videos [sorry the formatting is weird]:

"When you have a physique like this, when you're shredded and everything, something might happen."

“I’m probably a 3 looks wise, but my personality is a 12, so it takes me to about an 8.” 

"To be able to say that i play for the Boston Red Sox is an honor in itself."

"I want to be here. I want to play for the Red Sox and I don't want to play for anybody else...We're going to have an opportunity to win every single year. The fans are the best, the city embraces their team. So why not? It fits."

"I always wanted to be a miniature badass."
 

 

Of Hit-streaks and Nostalgia

Yesterday afternoon, in the eighth inning, Dustin Pedroia came to the plate hitless after his previous three at-bats (he did, however, have a walk).  The crowd, aware of his 24-game active hit streak, got to its feet and cheered, and were then rewarded when Pedey took a neck-high 3-2 offering from Greg Holland and deposited it in the Monster Seats, successfully extending his streak to 25 games.

The longest such streak in the majors this year belongs to Pedroia's close friend, Andre Ethier, with 30 games.  One can only imagine the ribbing Ethier will get if Pedey manages to notch hits in the next 6 games.

The most special part of the situation, in my opinion at least, was the fan reaction, and Terry Francona agreed: "I do think our fans are pretty special. They do react to things like that. It's part of what makes Fenway so great," he said. "We don't need to have President races or mustard racing ketchup. Our fans like our baseball. I actually really think that's cool. Nothing against mustard."

 This is part of why I find Fenway Park so special - we don't need the gimmicks that other teams depend on to draw and keep fans.  The new Yankee Stadium, for instance, felt to me like I was in a shopping mall and a baseball game broke out - it was plastered with technicolor ads and gimmicks, there were games and giveaways every half-inning on the scoreboard, almost like a minor-league stadium.

While Fenway does have a big new high-def scoreboard, it also hangs onto nostalgia with it's manual scoreboard under the very same Monster Pedroia homered into yesterday, as well as the same wooden grandstand seats in which your father and grandfather might have sat.  And the fans are just as knowledgeable and vociferous as they were when Teddy Ballgame was swatting homers from that very same batters box.

Terry Francona: Maverick

The current mid-week series in Philly is being billed by many of the talking heads in the sports business as a Fall Classic preview.  The Sox and the Phils are the toast of the bigs, despite the fact that Boston is a game and a half behind New York in the standings right now.

Tonight pitted Josh Beckett against Cliff Lee.  Though Cliff claimed the "W," I won't hold a grudge because I still worship the ground mound he walks on for spurning the advances of the Evil Empire during the offseason.  He's an honorary favorite for life, though that might change if we actually end up meeting him in October.

Despite the fact that I generally approve of Cliff Lee (and Philadelphia generally) I was very happy when Lee gacve up his first hit to the Red Sox, a single to Marco Scutaro in the sixth inning.  The only other Sox hit of the night was clubbed by Darnell McDonald, who doubled to lead off the top of the eighth inning.

We have John Lackey going for us tomorrow, and the big righty has been a bit of a mystery this season.  Personally, I'm inclined to cut him rather more slack than I normally would, because his wife Krista has been undergoing treatment for breast cancer, and I know how draining, distressing, and rattling it can be to watch a family member fight that battle.

Tito (a better maverick than John McCain ever was), has been hinting that he will combat the uncertainty of Lackey on the bump by putting David Ortiz in the lineup.  As all of you know, playing in Philly means Papi will have to play first base... thus sliding Adrian Gonzalez to right field. Yes, right field.

I could give you my perspective on this plan, but, as always, Dustin Pedroia's take is much more entertaining, so I'll leave it with this sentiment from my favorite second-baseman: "It'll be good offensively, but damn, I've gotta play second, first and right. That's a lot of ground to cover, man. I've got small legs."

No surgery for the Laser Show

I'm just going to take this time to note how ecstatic I am that Dustin Pedroia, by all accounts, will not need surgery on his troublesome right knee.  According to boston.com's Extra Bases blog, Pedey has suffered nothing more serious than a bruised kneecap, and will be reunited with the Red Sox tomorrow.

Terry Francona noted that while Pedroia does have some cartilage damage, most baseball players do - including the skipper himself.  What is far more worrisome to me is that it was bothering Pedroia enough not only for him to mention it, but enough for him to ask for time off to get it checked out.

It's obviously been affecting his performance, as his line this year is less than stellar.  With damage that required surgery, we could have seen a repaired and rejuvenated Dustin in about a month.  As things stand now, we don't know how things stand.  It's obvious that Pedey is the sparkplug and heart and soul of the Red Sox.  It's also clear (to me, at least) that they could survive a month without him to get him back full steam for the remainder of the season.

If there's no simple surgical solution for what ails the feisty second baseman, what can we expect as the season continues?  That's the big mystery, and since Pedroia himself has admitted his poor performance is due to the pain in his knee and his surgically repaired foot than to any sort of regular slump.

Hopefully he doesn't go the Nomar route: I simply cannot watch another promising, talented, homegrown player go through a string of injuries and DL-stints.  Luckily, I absolutely cannot imagine Pedroia sulking, refusing to play, or demanding a trade.  Keep your fingers crossed he heals up soon... I've been missing the Laser Show.

No offense?

Not last night. The Red Sox lineup came through in a big way during last night's game against Jered Weaver and the Angels, scoring nine runs, six of them in the bottom of the seventh inning, to assure Clay Buchholz of his second win of the season.

The Red Sox were 11-for-36 on the game, with two walks and seven strikeouts, and they extended their prodigious winning streak to TWO GAMES.

All sarcasm aside, last night's game was a gem, complete with a grinding battle pitting Dustin Pedroia against Weaver to score the go-ahead run in the bottom of the fifth inning (essentially guaranteeing the win for Buchholz, as the Sox did not trail after the fifth).  Pedey fouled off nine pitches in a 13-pitch at bat, before shooting a single back up the middle to score Carl Crawford from third.

Pedroia is one of the only players I have ever seen who can literally WILL himself to win: to win at-bats, to win ballgames, and even to win honors like ROY or MVP.  The man clearly has a lot of talent, and as much as I make fun of "intangibles" in this space, Pedey might be the King of them (sorry, Jetes).

Pedroia also went on to walk in the seventh inning, and come around to score on Adrian Gonzalez's 3-RBI double (Youkilis would then double to score Gonzalez, and David Ortiz bashed his second homer, scoring Youk).

This team seems to be back on track, or at least headed that way, as Adrian Gonzalez has 18 RBIs on the season, and Carl Crawford is 4-for-8 in May - hopefully a glimmer of things to come.  Now, the pitching needs to get back on a roll, perhaps jump-started by Clay Buchholz's performance last night. Despite putting ten men on base on eight hits and two walks in 6.2 innings, Buch gave up just two runs - pulling a "quality start" out of a start that was slightly less than quality.

I was concerned last night about Buch, since he was going against the previously 6-0, .99 ERA Jered Weaver, but, like the day before, my worries were for naught.  Tonight the Sox have Jon Lester facing off against Dan Haren - I don't think I should worry too much, but if this team has taught me anything, it's that games aren't played on paper.

Something's gotta give. Right?

Okay.  Enough is enough. The Red Sox may be a better team than they've been showing, but until they start putting their proverbial money where their mouths are, I'm done predicting their success.  The raw talent is obviously there, but something is clearly not clicking.  Can they do better than this? Certainly.  WILL they do better than this? I'm no longer so sure.

After tonight's travesty of a game the Sox fall to 1-7 against he Orioles, Mariners, and Indians.  This is unacceptable, especially in a division like the AL East.  to get to the playoffs the Red Sox must win about 95 games, and the easiest way to do that is to win series against mediocre teams like, I don't know, the Orioles, Mariners, and Indians.  If you can't even beat the Indians, how do you expect to beat the Rangers? The Rays? The YANKEES?

Again, this is clearly not a question of talent. The talent is there.  It's at every position, and in most cases that talent is backed up by awards like Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, All Star selections, and MVP votes.  But something isn't clicking. The Red Sox hitters left runners in scoring position tonight like it was going out of style (let's hope that's the case), and it's old news at this point.

During the first skid of the season, Dustin Pedroia called out the Sox pitchers for not living up to their potential.  He had a point, and now the tables are turned, so which Sox hurler has the gall to make a statement? My vote is on Josh Beckett - he's never been one to keep quiet about his feelings, and if the lineup wastes a good start of his like they did Lackey's tonight, heads might roll.

Either the Red Sox step up, starting immediately, or this season starts to slip out of reach. It's hard to dig yourself out of a hole like this one when you can't even beat the perennial cellar-dwellers of the American League.  Something's gotta give. Let's hope it gives soon.

Off day thoughts...

Since I've last blogged, a lot has gone down in Red Sox Nation, most of it bad (I'm sorry for neglecting my duties here, but I'm on Spring Break on a beach in Africa, and internet is hard to come by). The Sox have yet to win their third game, and they currently have the worst record in baseball.  I know we all keep saying that they're too good for this, that something's gotta give eventually... but when is "eventually"? And how do we get it to come faster?

Sadly, I don't have any answers for you (other than this fantastic list of suggestions compiled by Peter Abraham over at the Boston Globe), but at this point we have no other recourse but to keep believing in this team.  We know they're better than this. THEY know they're better than this.

What needs to happen immediately, though, is for everyone to start hitting.  Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez, JD Drew, David Ortiz, and, strangely enough, Jed Lowrie, are all hitting at an acceptable clip (Lowrie is leading the team at .438 in 7 games).  As for the other members of the team? They need to get their act together - soon, and preferably with runners in scoring position.

Champion.

The pitching rotation can take a lesson from Mr. Joshua Patrick Beckett on how to be a badass who beats CC Sabathia by stymieing a Yankees lineup that might be aging but is still formidable.  Jon Lester did a passable job the other night, holding the Rays to just three runs, but if the bats aren't going to get it done, three runs is too many.  Perhaps a rainout and day off will get things back in order: John Lackey will be skipped this time through the rotation, so he has extra time to get his act together while the other hurlers stay (mostly) on schedule.

They will snap out of this skid. They HAVE to snap out of this skid.  If it were possible to will a team to victory, Boston's devoted fans would make sure the Red Sox never lost a game, but we live in the real world.  The games have to be played, and the players have to prove themselves.  We're 4.5 games out of first with 151 left to play. I'd day it's definitely doable.

10 minute musings [Live from Delhi!]

A free morning for me = a blog update for you:


1. Indian cricket fans are just as crazy as Red Sox Nation. I know I said in the last post that the match I went to was poorly attended - and it was. However, it was the West Indies playing the Netherlands, in Delhi, so it wasn't surprising that there weren't too many Dutch or West Indian fans in attendance... it's sort of a long trip from Europe or the Caribbean. There were lots of India fans there, chanting "IN-DIA! IN-DIA!" and it sort of reminded me of Red Sox fans chanting "Yankees suck!" while we're playing the Blue Jays.

2. I'm very heartened by David Ortiz's spring thus far. I know it's silly to count spring performances as indicators of what's to come, since many players have torn up Spring Training only to flop over the course of the season, and vice versa. But it still seems like a good sign that he's swinging the bat well, especially given how lost he looked in the opening months of 2009 and 2010. Here's hoping we skip the struggle this year - though if Papi falters, we have a few more big bats to fall back on.

3. Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez seem to be adjusting well. Though it's possible that Crawford is still creeped out by the whole private investigator/due diligence/much ado about nothing fiasco of a few weeks back, he seems to be at home with the rest of his teammates thus far. Quick to assure the media that no, he and Jacoby Ellsbury are NOT in competition, that they'll be great TOGETHER, Crawford is a team player (who wouldn't bet against himself in a footrace). Gonzalez is ahead of his schedule for recovery after last season's shoulder surgery, but in his case I think no news is good news... I can't wait to see them both in a game.

4. The Lester-Buchholz show is back - hopefully with some more reinforcements. Jon Lester is giving a strong showing so far this spring, and Clay Buchholz is determined to replicate (or surpass) his last season's results. Besides the little hiccup when Josh Beckett got nailed in the head shagging fly balls, the pitching staff looks to be gearing up for a strong season. They have a lot to prove after last year's poor performances - and they know it. Here's hoping they're up to the challenge.

5. I very much admire Jed Lowrie. This is a bit off-topic, since it's hardly baseball-related, but Lowrie is doggedly completing the last few requirements for his degree in political science from Stanford. Lowrie left in 2005 to play baseball, and though it would be easy to decide that he could go back when his playing career is over, he's opting to get it done now, even as he's fighting for playing time in a camp full of All-Stars. Full disclosure: one of my majors is poli-sci, so I have a soft spot for fellow students of politics.

6. I don't buy the whole "Yankees are the underdogs" thing. No, the Yankees did not have the high-profile acquisitions that the Sox did this offseason, but they are NEVER the underdogs. All you need to do is read their lineup to understand that, and though they are most definitely getting old, they are also a roster full of superstars. Add to that the ever-present potential for Brian Cashman to go out and make a big splash with Yankee dollars and prospects, and I'll most definitely be keeping an eye on the Bronx Bombers this season (hopefully in the rear-view mirror).

7. The kids are alright. Okay, so I didn't much like that movie, but the Sox prospects are performing well this spring. Though Lars Anderson is most likely trade bait, and Felix Doubront is destined for the bullpen for the time being, I'm always excited to see some young kids do well. Jose Iglesias is making me long for 2012 despite the enormous potential for this season's squad. According to more than a few people, he has the potential to be a star AND the solution to the revolving door at shortstop.

8. I'm [more than] slightly concerned about Daisuke Matsuzaka. Hardly groundbreaking news, but Matsuzaka's spring has been less than inspiring, and he's as much of an enigma as ever. Luckily, no one is counting on him to be anything more than a serviceable fifth starter - hopefully he can live up to that, at least.

9. No news is good news on Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis. I was always a believer in the Sox last season, but when Pedey and Youk were officially down for the count I started to lose hope. Both are back for 2011 with no limitations, and we haven't heard much from them, which to me must mean that they are going to be A-OK - hopefully that's the case.

10. I'm both excited for and dreading April 1st. I'm going to be in Dakar, Senegal when the Red Sox open up their season against the Texas Rangers, and internet there is a great unknown. If I have a fast, reliable connection (and time - unlikely, but I'll try to make some) I'm going to buy MLB.tv and try to watch as many games as possible. If not, I'll be reliant on sporadic emails and access to internet cafes. Here's hoping it's the former!

[All factual info in this post was gathered from boston.com - fantastic coverge, especially for a baseball-starved student stranded in Delhi, India.]

Memorable Moments of 2010: Part 4

You had to see this one coming. Despite the fact that Dustin Pedroia missed most of the second half due to injury, he had a no-doubt laser show game just one day before he broke his foot.

On June 24, 2010 in Denver, Colorado, Dustin Pedroia had a game for the ages, going 5-for-5 with three home runs, and 5 RBIs. The Laser Show was in town, indeed. The diminutive second baseman was his usual exuberant self after the game, never once seeming to lose his swagger.

I couldn't find a video of the actual home runs, but here's a link to NESN's postgame interview with the man of the hour. One of Pedroia's bombs was the game-winner, after heart-attack Papelbon blew his second save in a row.

The very next day, Pedey fouled a pitch off of his own foot, breaking it and landing him on the disabled-list for the rest of the season - excepting a two-day stint when he erroneously believed he was better.



Needless to say, the absence of my future husband severely diminished my enjoyment of the Sox for the rest fo the summer, and I can't wait to have him back next season.

2011 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Lineup

I know, I know, this is what you've all been waiting for - and I have kept you waiting. In my defense, had I done this any sooner, I wouldn't have been able to include Adrian Gonzalez or Carl Crawford, and their presence certainly changes things in a big way. Two weeks ago, I presented the Bill James projections for the rotation (58-48 from the front five), and it's high time I did the same for the lineup. Keep in mind, this batting order is just my guess - I'm sure it will change based on who the other team has pitching, who needs rest, and how everyone is doing, so take it with a grain of salt.

CENTER FIELD: Jacoby Ellsbury: 2010: 18 games, .192 BA, .241 OBP, .244 SLG, 0 HR, 5 RBI
2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI

If Goldenboy lives up to these numbers, I promise to stop calling him D-Ellsbury, and maybe even become a fan. In all seriousness, you could ask for more form a leadoff hitter, but it would be pretty demanding. I could definitely live with this line from Ells.

SECOND BASE:Dustin Pedroia: 2010: 75 games, .288 BA, .367 OBP, .493 SLG, 12 HR, 41 RBI
2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI

Hubby is expected to be back to his old voracious, impressive, and loudmouth self in 2011, after a season that was a wash due to injury. Pedey hits best when he's batting second, and he seems to like it, so I expect Tito to keep him there.
LEFT FIELD:Carl Crawford: 2010: 154 games, .307 BA, .356 OBP, .495 SLG, 19 HR, 90 RBI
2011 projection: 149 games, .300 BA, .350 OBP, .453 SLG, 14 HR, 93 RBI

Let's deal with the elephant in the room first: is Crawford worth $20+ million a year? Probably not, but I'm thrilled he's coming to Boston at any cost. I REALLY wish he was willing to bat leadoff, but apparently he hates it, and Tito's not one to go against a player's wishes, but he'll definitely be somewhere near the top. His numbers might be slightly better at Fenway than the Trop, but the difference won't be anything crazy.

THIRD BASE:Kevin Youkilis: 2010: 102 games, .307 BA, .411 OBP, .564 SLG, 19 HR, 62 RBI
2011 projection: 151 games, .294 BA, .398 OBP, .507 SLG, 25 HR, 95 RBI

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Kevin Youkilis is under-appreciated by this fanbase - and that's hard to do. He's wildly consistent, and his willingness and ability to slide across the diamond to third base next year is huge.
FIRST BASE:Adrian Gonzalez: 2010: 160 games, .298 BA, .393 OBP, .511 SLG, 31 HR, 101 RBI
2011 projection: 161 games, .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG, 33 HR, 102 RBI

Keep in mind that Gonzo's numbers are likely to improve due to the Fenway effect. He spent last season playing in Petco Park, where doubles go to die, but even if we only (ONLY!) get the numbers predicted by James, I'll be happy.

DESIGNATED HITTER:David Ortiz: 2010: 145 games, .270 BA, .370 OBP, .529 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI
2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI

Expect the usual from Papi: he'll struggle mightily in April, and then find his stroke sometime in May, just as the howling about his $12.5 million salary reaches fever pitch. In the end, he'll produce what we've come to expect from him, which isn't too shabby when you really look at it.

RIGHT FIELD: JD Drew: 2010: 139 games, .255 BA, .341 OBP, .452 SLG, 22 HR, 68 RBI
2011 projection: 145 games, .263 BA, .370 OBP, .460 SLG, 22 HR, 77 RBI

Mike Cameron: 2010: 48 games, .259 BA, .328 OBP, .401 SLG, 4 HR, 15 RBI
2011 projection: 121 games, .239 BA, .327 OBP, .425 SLG, 18 HR, 58 RBI

Because the outfield is so lefty-heavy, I expect Cameron to get more than enough playing time. I'm coupling him with Drew for the purpose of these projections simply because Drew tends to miss significant time with injuries each year. On the other hand, it is a contract year for Drew, so maybe he'll surprise us.
SHORTSTOP:Marco Scutaro: 2010: 150 games, .275 BA, .333 OBP, .388 SLG, 11 HR, 56 RBI
2011 projection: 153 games, .266 BA, .339 OBP, .374 SLG, 10 HR, 60 RBI
Jed Lowrie: 2010: 55 games, .287 BA, .381 OBP, .526 SLG, 9 HR, 24 RBI
2011 projection: 144 games, .270 BA, .361 OBP, .467 SLG, 17 HR, 75 RBI

Either James is predicting that Lowrie will be a utility guy and get a lot of games at other positions, or he's guessing one of these two will be traded. Either way, both players have respectable lines - though Lowrie's are a bit better across the board. If Lowrie can manage to keep himself healthy (I know that's a big "if" given the history) he'll probably play more, but let's face it: they're both just place-holders until Jose Iglesias is ready.
CATCHER:Jason Varitek: 2010: 39 games, .232 BA, .293 OBP, .473 SLG, 7 HR, 16 RBI
2011 projection: 72 games, .228 BA, .324 OBP, .386 SLG, 33 RBI
Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
2010: 12 games, .167 BA, .333 OBP, .292 SLG, 0 HR, 2 RBI
2011 projection: 110 games, .249 BA, .323 OBP, .422 SLG, 12 HR, 43 RBI

Not the best thing you've ever seen, but if Salty can come into his own defensively while Tek shows him the ropes, I think we can deal with this line. One more note: Salty hits righthanders better, while Tek is pretty good against lefties - I think that's what we'll see.


The very fact that I can plausibly design a lineup that has David Ortiz hitting sixth and JD Drew seventh makes me very excited. I'm sure Tito will figure things out, and his lineup will be fantastic - if we can just keep healthy (PLEASE?!?) this should be a fantastic team to watch.

Happy Thanksgiving, Red Sox Nation!

All too often this blog has become a place for rants and complaints: mostly because none of my friends or family really care about the Red Sox (at least, not like I do), so this is a somewhat healthy way to vent my frustrations. However, in spirit of today's holiday, I thought I would post a list of Red Sox-related things for which I am thankful:

• 2004 and 2007: Seven years ago, we were coming off the biggest heartbreak since 1986. We still claimed lovable loser status, and there were people who swore that the Cubs curse would break before ours. Then, seven years ago today, our own Theo Epstein made a trek to Curt Schilling's Arizona home for Thanksgiving, and a deal was eventually done. The rest, as they say, is history.
• An 89-win season: Fully two-thirds of MLB teams finished behind Boston this season, and this despite the 2010 Parade of Carnage that saw SIX Opening Day starters spend an extended period on the disabled list, not to mention the grab bag of injuries to bench players and pitchers beyond Opening Day starter Josh Beckett.
• The chance to cheer for prospects: The Red Sox have had a fantastic farm system, and despite Theo's ill-fated "bridge year" comment of yesteryear, we got to see some fantastic things this season. If I had proclaimed, this time last year, that we would soon be cheering on Daniel Nava, Darnell McDonald, Ryan Kalish, Felix Doubront, and Josh Reddick on a regular basis, you all would have had me committed. The kids, as they say, are all right, and they certainly proved themselves this season.
• My proximity to Boston: Sure, I'm three hours away at home, and two when I'm at school, but the fact is that I can drive there any time I wish (so long as there's not a blizzard or something). There are fans all over the country, and all over the world, who have never set foot in Fenway Park, have never been to the the East Coast of the US, and so are constant minorities in their baseball-rooting interest. I'm thankful that there are thousands of Fenway Faithful all around me, that Red Sox hats abound (more in NH than CT), and that people around here are generally so passionate.
• Dustin Pedroia: You had to know this was coming. However, it's not just my favorite player for whom I am thankful, but all of his home-grown teammates, especially those who are still under Red Sox control, pre-arbitration, and those who took wallet-friendly deals to stay with the Sox. Players like Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, John Lester, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Jed Lowrie (remember him!?), and yes, even Jacoby Ellsbury.
• The wallet of John Henry, et al: Yes, yes, I know all of RSN is claiming that Henry's acquisition of the Liverpool Football Club is the reason that VMart is now a Tiger, but I'm going to go on record as skeptical of that theory. The fact is, Henry is fabulously wealthy, and he bankrolled the second-highest payroll in MLB last year. I know it's difficult to keep perspective on how lucky the Sox are financially when the Yankees are outspending King Midas 200 miles to the south, but please try to remember: we are very, VERY lucky to have an owner who is willing to spend when his GM thinks it's appropriate.
• Theo Epstein: Speaking of the GM, we happen to have one of the best. I know people's opinions are tainted right now because of the Victor Martinez debacle, but the fact is that Theo always knows what he's doing (except, apparently, with shortstops). Do you recall the offseason a few years back (I believe this was pre-Martinez, but perhaps not) when all of RSN was howling at Mr. Epstein to go out and get a new young backstop? Jarrod Saltalamacchia was near the top of the wish list, and Theo managed to acquire him for peanuts. Theo has a plan. Chill.
• You! Yes, dear reader, I am thankful for you. When I started this blog nearly two years ago, I never expected to get more than a few reads, if I got any at all. Really, this was going to function more like a journal for me to get out my Sox thoughts, since no one in my life particularly cared to discuss baseball 24/7. The audience I have now blows me away, and I'm extremely thankful to be able to write for such a passionate group of fans.

Did I forget anything? Do you disagree? Feel free to add your imput in the comments section, and have a very happy Thanksgiving! [And to my non-American readers, have a happy Thursday!]

Breaking News: I love Dustin Pedroia

This weekend, I learned that I am apparently not forthcoming enough about my personal opinion of Dustin Pedroia. Somehow, a friend of mine was under the impression that Jacoby Ellsbury was my favorite baseball player.

Now, this might be acceptable for someone who has never met me, or who knows next to nothing about the Red Sox... but the friend in question meets neither of these stipulations. Needless to say, I informed him that we are in a huge fight.

His excuse was that "Every girl I know is head over heels for Ellsbury." Excuse me, but in case you hadn't noticed, I'm not your average fangirl. I have three different posters of Sox players on my wall, and not one of them features Jacoby Ellsbury, no matter how "dreamy" some people find him.

Shockingly, THIS poster does, in fact, hang on my wall.

I've ranted about Ellsbury before, so I won't repeat myself (though I am rather proud to have coined the nickname "D-Ellsbury"), but I do want to get to the point of this post, which is, you guessed it, Dustin Pedroia.

It was three short years ago that the scrappy second baseman was named AL Rookie of the Year, and, a year later, the American League MVP. Since then, Pedroia has grown from an impressive rookie to a seasoned veteran, but he missed more than half of 2010 with injuries (which, by the way, totally ruined my summer).

So what can we expect from the feisty infielder next season? Just the usual: backtalk, dirty uniforms, laser shows, grit, spectacular glovework, tenacious hitting, and a work ethic that would make Paul Bunyan proud.

I know I should have spent today writing about THIS year's ROY winners, Neftali Feliz and Buster Posey, and I'll probably get to it later, but I was feeling particularly nostalgic for the days when Pedey was a young phenom.

And he's just so NICE.

So, for any of you who might be still confused (ahem, you know who you area), Dustin Pedroia is my favorite player. In my eyes, he can essentially do no wrong (even if the dipping is disgusting), and if I ever had the opportunity to meet him I'm quite sure I would hyperventilate. People are always talking about intangibles, and while I'm of the opinion that "veteran presence" and "calm eyes" are useless without a passable skill set ON the field, I'm equally confident that Pedey means a lot more to the Red Sox than simply his batting average, OBP, or even WAR.

And you know what else? He means the world to Red Sox Nation, too.

Best intangible ever? Adorable son.