2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Infielders

I'm doing this a little differently from last year.  Since there is a new manager who will have his own new ideas about the makeup of the lineup, I won't even try to guess what it will be for 2012.  So there will be four projections posts: this one for infielders (and DH), one for outfielders, one for starting pitchers, and one for relief pitchers.

1st base, Adrian Gonzalez:
2011 projection: 161 games, .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG, 33 HR, 102 RBI
2011: 159 games, .338 BA, .410 OBP, .548 SLG, 27 HR, 117 RBI
2012 projection: 160 games, .301 BA, 387 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 105 RBI

 Last year's projections were calculated by James and his team with the assumption that Gonzalez would be playing in San Diego's cavernous Petco Park for 81 games, so it only makes sense that he surpassed those numbers in the friendly confines of Fenway Park.  James predicts a precipitous drop off from last year to this one - but I don't think it will be quite so steep.


2nd base, Dustin Pedroia:
2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI
2011: 159 games, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, 21 HR, 91 RBI
2012 projection: 143 games, .299 BA, .378 OBP, .469 SLG, 17 HR, 73 RBI

James consistently underestimates Pedey.  I guess it was understandable for last year, since no one was sure how he would bounce back from his foot injury in 2010, but I think we know what to expect from Pedroia at this point.  If he's not doing well, or if the team isn't, Pedroia WILLS himself to do better. I don't put much stock in "intangibles," but if they exist, the Sox second baseman has them.


3rd base, Kevin Youkilis:
2011 projection: 151 games, .294 BA, .398 OBP, .507 SLG, 25 HR, 95 RBI
2011: 120 games, .258 BA, .373 OBP, .459 SLG, 17 HR, 80 RBI
2012 projection: 135 games, .281 BA, .389 OBP, .489 SLG, 21 HR, 86 RBI

It's no secret that Youk had a rough 2011.  In fact, given his sports hernia and bursitis in his hip (requiring surgery), it's impressive that he managed to play in 120 games.  Given his injuries and the Red Sox collapse, it's easy to forget the fantastic first half that Youkilis had, even being named to the AL All-Star Team.  Assuming all went well this offseason, expect a rebound season for Youkilis.

Shortstop, Marco Scutaro:
2011 projection: 153 games, .266 BA, .339 OBP, .374 SLG, 10 HR, 60 RBI
2011: 113 games, .299 BA, .358 OBP, .423 SLG, 7 HR, 54 RBI
2012 projection: 143 games, .271 BA, .341 OBP, .378 SLG, 9 HR, 59 RBI

Though somewhat short of spectacular, Scutaro has been one of the better Red Sox shortstops in recent memory (not injury-riddled like the now-departed Jed Lowrie, nor error-prone as the abominable Julio Lugo).  He's been quite steady, both in the field and at the plate, and he'll likely continue that pattern.


Shortstop, Jose Iglesias:
2011: 10 games, .333 BA, .333 OBP, .333 SLG, 0 HR, 0 RBI
2012 projection: 50 games, .241 BA, .277 OBP, .277 SLG, 0 HR, 10 RBI

Everyone knows that this job is Iglesias' for the taking.  If he hits as James predicts, we'll see more of Scutaro for 2012 - if he exceeds these projections, we'll likely witness the shift away from Scuaro and into the foreseeable future. 

Catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
2011 projection: 110 games, .249 BA, .323 OBP, .422 SLG, 12 HR, 43 RBI
2011: 103 games, .235 BA, .288 OBP, .450 SLG, 16 HR, 56 RBI
2012 projection: 95 games, .245 BA, .311 OBP, .426 SLG, 13 HR, 45 RBI

Salty's playing time will likely depend on how skillful Kelly Shoppach turns out  to be as a backup.  As one of the only players pulling his own weight in September, I have faith in Saltalamacchia's ability to hold up the mantle of head catcher and game-caller that Jason Varitek held for so long.


Catcher, Kelly Shoppach:
2011: 87 games, .176 BA, .278 OBP, .339 SLG, 11 HR, 22 RBI
2012 projection: 85 games, .227 BA, .318 OBP, .431 SLG, 11 HR, 31 RBI

As you might remember, Shoppach was drafted by the Red Sox originally, before spending time in Cleaveland and Tampa Bay.  He bats righthanded, and hits better against lefties than Salty, but given the power in the Sox lineup, his playing time will probably depend more on how well the pitchers like throwing to him.


Catcher, Ryan Lavarnway:
2011: 17 games, .231 BA, .302 OBP, .436 SLG, 2 HR, 8 RBI
2012 projection: 77 games, .275 BA,.351 OBP, .527 SLG, 13 HR, 41 RBI

Obviously, the Red Sox are not going to be carrying three catchers, and the projections were calculated before the move for Shoppach.  If Shoppach struggles mightily, and Lararnway is tearing it up in Pawtucket, we might see him sooner rather than later.  Otherwise, expect to see the Sox give him some more time to develop.


Utility infielder, Nick Punto:
2011: 63 games, .278 BA, .388 OBP, .421 SLG, 1 HR, 20 RBI
2012 projection: 99 games, .243 BA, .329 OBP, .315 SLG, 1 HR, 23 RBI

I don't know too much about Nick Punto, but it's unlikely that he'll get the 99 games of playing time James predicted when it was assumed he'd be playing for the Cards.  If we can get passable offense and defense from our utility guy, I'll be happy.

Utility infielder, Mike Aviles (thanks to Paul for the reminder!):
2011: 91 games, .255 BA, .289 OBP, .409 SLG, 7 HR, 39 RBI
2012 projection: 101 games, .279 BA, .311 OBP, .423 SLG,  8 HR, 38 RBI

As Paul said in the comments, if Youkilis can't hack it for whatever reason, we'll be seeing quite a bit of Aviles this season.  The numbers are more than satisfactory from a utility man - but James is predicting a lot of playing time for him.


Designated hitter, David Ortiz:
2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI
2011: 146 games, .309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG, 29 HR, 96 RBI
2012 projection: 150 games, .277 BA, .378 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 104 RBI

Though the Red Sox struggled mightily in April, Papi escaped his usual struggles last spring, and surpassed most of James' predictions for him - here's hoping he can do that again, even at age 36.

[Final note: players not with the Red Sox at the beginning of 2011 do not have their 2011 projection numbers, because I left the 2011 Bill James Handbook in my dorm room - the Sox projections were recovered from last year's projection post.]

Sox-cars

Seeing as Hollywood's biggest awards who is on this evening, I thought Off the Monster would give out some awards of its own. So, without further review, here are the winners:

Best Actor in a Drama:
Daisuke Matsuzaka: In a continuation of the saga we've endured since he arrived, Matsuzaka has suffered a back injury of sorts, and is a few weeks behind the other pitchers. The drama really centers around the resolution of last year's situation: which Daisuke will we see? Do we get the 18 game winner of 2008, the washout of last season, or something in between? The suspense is killing me.

Best Supporting Actor:Jason Varitek: Though the Sox Captain is currently out of town dealing with a family issue, he has been dutifully assisting his successor, Victor Martinez, ever since pitching coach John Farrell assigned them to work together in camp. A lesser man might storm and rage at the manager, or take things out on the other players, but not Varitek. While I doubt he's thrilled to be supplanted, he hasn't said anything in public, and that's important.

Best Emerging Bromance:
Dustin Pedroia and Marco Scutaro: Apparently the two are hard at work building up a rapport, though that's hardly difficult when Pedey is involved. I fully expect them to have matching t-shirts/facial hair/gerbils by the time Opening Day comes around.

Best Soundtrack:Tug Hulett (left in photo): After hitting a pinch-hit 3-run homerun in the seventh inning of a game against the Twins, the fans began to chant his name: "Tug! Tug! Tug!" When asked for comment, Hulett just said he wished to thank his mother for giving him a chantable name. I'm going to assume he would also thank his mother at an awards show.

Best Visual Effects:
Jose Iglesias: The Cuban defector is flashing the leather as promised, and according to coaches and teammates, has no shortage of enthusiasm. He's also had some good plays with the bat, although he'll start the year in the minors (probably Portland) to work some more on offense.

Best Foreign Film:
John Lackey: This one is a bit of a stretch, but let's be serious: to most of New England, Anaheim might as well be a foreign country. However, the new Sox pitcher is perfroming admirably, "sailing through" his outings thus far. When asked if he felt slighted by being third in the rotation, he seemed honest when he said it was fine with him: “If the roles were reversed, and I would have stayed in Anaheim and those guys had come over there, I would expect to still be going first. I think those guys have earned the right. They’ve won a lot of games for Tito, and to go in front of me, I’m alright with that.”

Best Picture:So freakin' adorable.

Down on the Farm

With all of the free-agent signings this winter, it's easy to forget Theo's comments early this offseason, warning of a possible "bridge year." When the Sox GM first dropped the b-word, fans panicked, thinking we would be in for a lackluster year while biding our time for the prospects to pan out. Clearly, that's not the case, but we are in between waves of big-league ready prospects.

The next year or so probably won't see any impact players coming from the farm system - at least, there won't be can't miss guys like Pedroia ('07), or Ellsbury ('08). However, in 2011 and beyond, brace yourself to see a flurry of talent coming up.

We got a sneak peak at Josh Reddick this season, as he had 63 plate appearances for the big club in the second half. The young outfielder hit just .169... but he did clobber two home runs. In 63 games in Portland (AA), Reddick hit .277 with an OPS of .871, but when he made the jump to AAA Pawtucket, those numbers fell to .127 and .373. There have been some theorizing that Reddick's pitch recognition skills just weren't at AAA or major league caliber yet... but that's certainly something that will improve with time. Fun fact: William Joshua Reddick is his given name, and though he throws right-handed, he's a lefty at the plate.

It's official: Casey Kelly is going to be a pitcher. At first, the big righty (6'3") said he wanted to play shortstop, and for the last two seasons in the minors has been pitching to his innings limit and subsequently playing at shortstop. Kelly's numbers as a pitcher are considerably more impressive than those as a batter, as he boasts a career minor-league ERA of 2.08, and a batting average of just .219. Fun fact: Kelly has an extensive baseball genealogy - uncle Mike Kelly and father Pat Kelly both played in the majors, while his brother Chris is currently in the Rays' system. [Bonus fun fact: I'm calling dibs on him. Right now. He's Off the Monster's Dustin of the future.]

Ryan Westmoreland is one of the most impressive young men in the Red Sox system, and that's really saying something. He was an all-star in high school, both on the field and in the classroom, passing on a full scholarship to Vanderbilt to sign with the Sox. He missed all of last season after breaking his collarbone running into an outfield wall, but performed admirably in 2009. Playing mostly as a DH for Single-A Lowell, Westmoreland hit .296 with an .885 OPS. Fun fact: Westmoreland is the first player profiled on Off the Monster who is younger than I (three months, 9 days younger, to be exact, with a birthday of April 27, 1990).

Ryan Kalish is the Golden Boy of the future - heck, he's even an outfielder. However, even if you look beyond the chiseled face (please, look beyond the chiseled face) Kalish is one to watch. Playing most of 2009 in Portland, Kalish hit .271 with 13 home runs and 56 RBIs in 103 games, and according to soxprospects.com he has the potential to be a lead-off guy with some pop. Fun fact: he played center field as a kid, but is open to all outfield positions: "I want to get to the big leagues so it doesn’t really matter where I am at. I’d play first base as long as I make it."

In a position the Red Sox desperately want to fill, Luis Exposito is very promising. He has a career minor-league batting average of .280, with an OPS of .785, and has the potential to be an everyday catcher with good power. One criticism Exposito gets is that his game-calling needs some work - Jason Varitek, your skills are needed here! He has a good arm, and is adequate at throwing out base stealers, something Sox backstops have been struggling mightily with lately. Fun fact: Exposito speaks both Spanish and English, and, by all accounts, has matured into a very positive clubhouse influence.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that the signing of International Free-Agent Jose Iglesias had some bearing on Kelly's final decision to embrace the pitcher's mound. Iglesias is highly touted as an excellent defensive shortstop, and even at the young age of 20, scouts are projecting potential Gold Gloves in his future. His bat is average at best, but an average bat and sparkling defense at shortstop would be a major boon for the Sox, who have been struggling to fill the hole since 2004. Fun fact: Wikipedia lists two different birthdays for Iglesias (January 5 and May 1, 1990), and his age has to be questioned a bit, given the fact that he's a Cuban defector. Still, it's not as if he's secretly 35, but an extra year or two wouldn't be unheard of.

On a totally girly and unrelated note, these boys aren't half bad-looking... I don't know about you guys, but I can't wait to get my butt over to Portland this summer to catch some of these guys in action for less than $10. Hopefully I'll see some of you there!

[Thanks to soxprospects.com and baseball-reference.com for stats and insight!]