A little late: An Andy Pettitte reaction

So the title for this post is two-fold: first, because I'm a terrible blogger and this post is wayyy overdue. Sorry. Second, because Pettitte's return is a little too late in his career.  The man will be forty years old in June, and given his history, you have to believe there will be some suspicions if he's too successful this season, especially with his recent history of muscle injuries.

Because he was ostensibly "retired" last season, Bill James has no 2012 projection for Pettitte.  He does, however, have a projection for 2011 based on his last year pitching in the majors, 2010.  James projected 23 starts, 140 IP, 9 wins, 7 losses, and an ERA of 3.86.  These are very respectable numbers - but if we take into account what has changed since late 2010 when James made these projections, I think we can assume they might be slightly lower.

Pettitte has not played in a major league ballgame since 2010, and for all he says that he's been throwing at home, I think we can assume he  will backslide some from the 11-3, 3.28 ERA performance from that year (which is interesting in itself, as it followed four years of ERAs over 4).

He is also looking at extended Spring Training, as he showed up out of retirement well after his teammates had reported - if all goes according to plan, he's looking at a mid-May return, cutting that innings estimate down. Pettitte also lacks the luxury of an assured rotation spot that he would have had in 2011, and has to fight his way into a rotation that is already overcrowded (as a Sox fan, I hope they make room for him by taking out someone young and strong).

There's really no way to guess how Pettitte's return will be - whether it's triumphant or embarassing will be up to his readiness, the state of the team when he returns to it, and Manaer Joe Girardi's decisions concerning his playing time.  But it should be interesting - obviously, the players from the late-90s glory days can't stay away - perhaps we should be on the lookout for Jorge Posada to renege on his retirement next season.

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Outfielders

[A continuation of this post which I began with the Bill James projections for infielders.]


Left field, Carl Crawford:
2011 projection: 149 games, .300 BA, .350 OBP, .453 SLG, 14 HR, 93 RBI
2011: 130 games, .255 BA, .289 OBP, .405 SLG, 11 HR, 56 RBI
2012 projection: 155 games, .286 BA, .332 OBP, .436 SLG, 15 HR, 73 RBI

It's no secret that Crawford performed rather less well than we had hoped he would last season, and James' expectations seem to have been lowered in keeping with 2011.  The good news is that though Crawford only managed to steal 18 bases last year, James thinks he'll steal 34 next season.


Center field, Jacoby Ellsbury:
2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI
2011: 158 games, .321 BA, .376 OBP, .552 SLG, 32 HR, 105 RBI
2012 projection: 158 games, .304 BA, .362 OBP, .476 SLG, 19 HR, 72 RBI

I think it's safe to say that Ellsbury proved himself last year, but apparently James is expecting a backslide. Here's hoping Goldenboy proves him wrong.


[Possible] Right fielder, Ryan Sweeney:
2011: 108 games, .265 BA, .346 OBP, .341 SLG, 1 HR, 25 RBI
2012 projection: 105 games, .285 BA, .353 OBP, .392 SLG, 4 HR, 36 RBI

Both last years numbers and the projections were for Oakland - and Sweeney's playing time is up in the air.  These numbers are solid enough for a fourth outfielder, but I'd like to see more power out of a permanent corner guy.

[Possible] Right fielder, Darnell McDonald:
2011: 79 games, .236 BA, .303 OBP, .401 SLG, 6 HR, 24 RBI

2012 projection: 113 games, .268 BA, .325 OBP, .320 SLG, 9 HR, 40 RBI


McDonald has been more than serviceable in the last few years - the right fielder job is still up in the air, and it stands to reason he'll get a shot at it.


Other possibilities for the outfield include Ryan Kalish and Che-Hsuan Lin, both of whom spent last year in the minors, so they don't have projections in the 2012 Handbook.

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Infielders

I'm doing this a little differently from last year.  Since there is a new manager who will have his own new ideas about the makeup of the lineup, I won't even try to guess what it will be for 2012.  So there will be four projections posts: this one for infielders (and DH), one for outfielders, one for starting pitchers, and one for relief pitchers.

1st base, Adrian Gonzalez:
2011 projection: 161 games, .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG, 33 HR, 102 RBI
2011: 159 games, .338 BA, .410 OBP, .548 SLG, 27 HR, 117 RBI
2012 projection: 160 games, .301 BA, 387 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 105 RBI

 Last year's projections were calculated by James and his team with the assumption that Gonzalez would be playing in San Diego's cavernous Petco Park for 81 games, so it only makes sense that he surpassed those numbers in the friendly confines of Fenway Park.  James predicts a precipitous drop off from last year to this one - but I don't think it will be quite so steep.


2nd base, Dustin Pedroia:
2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI
2011: 159 games, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, 21 HR, 91 RBI
2012 projection: 143 games, .299 BA, .378 OBP, .469 SLG, 17 HR, 73 RBI

James consistently underestimates Pedey.  I guess it was understandable for last year, since no one was sure how he would bounce back from his foot injury in 2010, but I think we know what to expect from Pedroia at this point.  If he's not doing well, or if the team isn't, Pedroia WILLS himself to do better. I don't put much stock in "intangibles," but if they exist, the Sox second baseman has them.


3rd base, Kevin Youkilis:
2011 projection: 151 games, .294 BA, .398 OBP, .507 SLG, 25 HR, 95 RBI
2011: 120 games, .258 BA, .373 OBP, .459 SLG, 17 HR, 80 RBI
2012 projection: 135 games, .281 BA, .389 OBP, .489 SLG, 21 HR, 86 RBI

It's no secret that Youk had a rough 2011.  In fact, given his sports hernia and bursitis in his hip (requiring surgery), it's impressive that he managed to play in 120 games.  Given his injuries and the Red Sox collapse, it's easy to forget the fantastic first half that Youkilis had, even being named to the AL All-Star Team.  Assuming all went well this offseason, expect a rebound season for Youkilis.

Shortstop, Marco Scutaro:
2011 projection: 153 games, .266 BA, .339 OBP, .374 SLG, 10 HR, 60 RBI
2011: 113 games, .299 BA, .358 OBP, .423 SLG, 7 HR, 54 RBI
2012 projection: 143 games, .271 BA, .341 OBP, .378 SLG, 9 HR, 59 RBI

Though somewhat short of spectacular, Scutaro has been one of the better Red Sox shortstops in recent memory (not injury-riddled like the now-departed Jed Lowrie, nor error-prone as the abominable Julio Lugo).  He's been quite steady, both in the field and at the plate, and he'll likely continue that pattern.


Shortstop, Jose Iglesias:
2011: 10 games, .333 BA, .333 OBP, .333 SLG, 0 HR, 0 RBI
2012 projection: 50 games, .241 BA, .277 OBP, .277 SLG, 0 HR, 10 RBI

Everyone knows that this job is Iglesias' for the taking.  If he hits as James predicts, we'll see more of Scutaro for 2012 - if he exceeds these projections, we'll likely witness the shift away from Scuaro and into the foreseeable future. 

Catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
2011 projection: 110 games, .249 BA, .323 OBP, .422 SLG, 12 HR, 43 RBI
2011: 103 games, .235 BA, .288 OBP, .450 SLG, 16 HR, 56 RBI
2012 projection: 95 games, .245 BA, .311 OBP, .426 SLG, 13 HR, 45 RBI

Salty's playing time will likely depend on how skillful Kelly Shoppach turns out  to be as a backup.  As one of the only players pulling his own weight in September, I have faith in Saltalamacchia's ability to hold up the mantle of head catcher and game-caller that Jason Varitek held for so long.


Catcher, Kelly Shoppach:
2011: 87 games, .176 BA, .278 OBP, .339 SLG, 11 HR, 22 RBI
2012 projection: 85 games, .227 BA, .318 OBP, .431 SLG, 11 HR, 31 RBI

As you might remember, Shoppach was drafted by the Red Sox originally, before spending time in Cleaveland and Tampa Bay.  He bats righthanded, and hits better against lefties than Salty, but given the power in the Sox lineup, his playing time will probably depend more on how well the pitchers like throwing to him.


Catcher, Ryan Lavarnway:
2011: 17 games, .231 BA, .302 OBP, .436 SLG, 2 HR, 8 RBI
2012 projection: 77 games, .275 BA,.351 OBP, .527 SLG, 13 HR, 41 RBI

Obviously, the Red Sox are not going to be carrying three catchers, and the projections were calculated before the move for Shoppach.  If Shoppach struggles mightily, and Lararnway is tearing it up in Pawtucket, we might see him sooner rather than later.  Otherwise, expect to see the Sox give him some more time to develop.


Utility infielder, Nick Punto:
2011: 63 games, .278 BA, .388 OBP, .421 SLG, 1 HR, 20 RBI
2012 projection: 99 games, .243 BA, .329 OBP, .315 SLG, 1 HR, 23 RBI

I don't know too much about Nick Punto, but it's unlikely that he'll get the 99 games of playing time James predicted when it was assumed he'd be playing for the Cards.  If we can get passable offense and defense from our utility guy, I'll be happy.

Utility infielder, Mike Aviles (thanks to Paul for the reminder!):
2011: 91 games, .255 BA, .289 OBP, .409 SLG, 7 HR, 39 RBI
2012 projection: 101 games, .279 BA, .311 OBP, .423 SLG,  8 HR, 38 RBI

As Paul said in the comments, if Youkilis can't hack it for whatever reason, we'll be seeing quite a bit of Aviles this season.  The numbers are more than satisfactory from a utility man - but James is predicting a lot of playing time for him.


Designated hitter, David Ortiz:
2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI
2011: 146 games, .309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG, 29 HR, 96 RBI
2012 projection: 150 games, .277 BA, .378 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 104 RBI

Though the Red Sox struggled mightily in April, Papi escaped his usual struggles last spring, and surpassed most of James' predictions for him - here's hoping he can do that again, even at age 36.

[Final note: players not with the Red Sox at the beginning of 2011 do not have their 2011 projection numbers, because I left the 2011 Bill James Handbook in my dorm room - the Sox projections were recovered from last year's projection post.]

Josh Beckett is the key to 2011

I'm finally home for break, and I have to say that the thing I consistently look forward to about getting out of Hartford is renewed access to MLB Network. I've been watching it whenever I can commandeer the remote (pretty easy to do now that my older sister has her own house), and last night on Hot Stove, the analysts were asked to rank their top five teams of 2011, as they were constructed at airtime. That means no assuming the Yankees will flex their financial muscle, and no calculating the Rangers chances if Vlad Guerrero is back - the analysts agreed that both scenarios are all but certain.

However, of the three personalities asked to rank their five, all three had the Red Sox as the best American League team (one ranked the Sox first overall, with the Phillies second, while the other two ranked Philly first and Boston second). It's easy to understand Philadelphia's appeal: they have four legitimate aces in their rotation. Boston, on the other hand, has made a few MAJOR moves to add to an already formidable roster.

However, all three analysts - and the host - agreed that there was one thing that the Red Sox absolutely needed if they wanted to live up to their potential, and that was a rebounding Josh Beckett.

I'll spare you the ugly details, but if you're any kind of red Sox fan, you already know how bad Beckett's 2010 went: when he wasn't on the disabled list, he was floundering horribly. This was even more disappointing than it would normally be, because the fiery Texan had signed a very lucrative extension in the spring, and then immediately went out and sucked all season.

Next year, Bill James expects Beckett to make 26 starts (just five more than last year), with a 10-9 record and a 3.86 ERA. No offense to James or Becks, but we need better than that, and I think we can reasonably expect better. First of all, wins are dependent on the team's offense at least as much as they are dependent on the actual pitching performance, and the 2011 Red Sox should be an offensive force.

Also, Josh Beckett is a very proud man. I'm certain that he's all but ashamed of his fail-tastic performance last year, and he's apt to come out swinging.

If Josh can figure out his life and make this work, 2011 should be one for the ages.

2011 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Lineup

I know, I know, this is what you've all been waiting for - and I have kept you waiting. In my defense, had I done this any sooner, I wouldn't have been able to include Adrian Gonzalez or Carl Crawford, and their presence certainly changes things in a big way. Two weeks ago, I presented the Bill James projections for the rotation (58-48 from the front five), and it's high time I did the same for the lineup. Keep in mind, this batting order is just my guess - I'm sure it will change based on who the other team has pitching, who needs rest, and how everyone is doing, so take it with a grain of salt.

CENTER FIELD: Jacoby Ellsbury: 2010: 18 games, .192 BA, .241 OBP, .244 SLG, 0 HR, 5 RBI
2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI

If Goldenboy lives up to these numbers, I promise to stop calling him D-Ellsbury, and maybe even become a fan. In all seriousness, you could ask for more form a leadoff hitter, but it would be pretty demanding. I could definitely live with this line from Ells.

SECOND BASE:Dustin Pedroia: 2010: 75 games, .288 BA, .367 OBP, .493 SLG, 12 HR, 41 RBI
2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI

Hubby is expected to be back to his old voracious, impressive, and loudmouth self in 2011, after a season that was a wash due to injury. Pedey hits best when he's batting second, and he seems to like it, so I expect Tito to keep him there.
LEFT FIELD:Carl Crawford: 2010: 154 games, .307 BA, .356 OBP, .495 SLG, 19 HR, 90 RBI
2011 projection: 149 games, .300 BA, .350 OBP, .453 SLG, 14 HR, 93 RBI

Let's deal with the elephant in the room first: is Crawford worth $20+ million a year? Probably not, but I'm thrilled he's coming to Boston at any cost. I REALLY wish he was willing to bat leadoff, but apparently he hates it, and Tito's not one to go against a player's wishes, but he'll definitely be somewhere near the top. His numbers might be slightly better at Fenway than the Trop, but the difference won't be anything crazy.

THIRD BASE:Kevin Youkilis: 2010: 102 games, .307 BA, .411 OBP, .564 SLG, 19 HR, 62 RBI
2011 projection: 151 games, .294 BA, .398 OBP, .507 SLG, 25 HR, 95 RBI

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Kevin Youkilis is under-appreciated by this fanbase - and that's hard to do. He's wildly consistent, and his willingness and ability to slide across the diamond to third base next year is huge.
FIRST BASE:Adrian Gonzalez: 2010: 160 games, .298 BA, .393 OBP, .511 SLG, 31 HR, 101 RBI
2011 projection: 161 games, .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG, 33 HR, 102 RBI

Keep in mind that Gonzo's numbers are likely to improve due to the Fenway effect. He spent last season playing in Petco Park, where doubles go to die, but even if we only (ONLY!) get the numbers predicted by James, I'll be happy.

DESIGNATED HITTER:David Ortiz: 2010: 145 games, .270 BA, .370 OBP, .529 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI
2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI

Expect the usual from Papi: he'll struggle mightily in April, and then find his stroke sometime in May, just as the howling about his $12.5 million salary reaches fever pitch. In the end, he'll produce what we've come to expect from him, which isn't too shabby when you really look at it.

RIGHT FIELD: JD Drew: 2010: 139 games, .255 BA, .341 OBP, .452 SLG, 22 HR, 68 RBI
2011 projection: 145 games, .263 BA, .370 OBP, .460 SLG, 22 HR, 77 RBI

Mike Cameron: 2010: 48 games, .259 BA, .328 OBP, .401 SLG, 4 HR, 15 RBI
2011 projection: 121 games, .239 BA, .327 OBP, .425 SLG, 18 HR, 58 RBI

Because the outfield is so lefty-heavy, I expect Cameron to get more than enough playing time. I'm coupling him with Drew for the purpose of these projections simply because Drew tends to miss significant time with injuries each year. On the other hand, it is a contract year for Drew, so maybe he'll surprise us.
SHORTSTOP:Marco Scutaro: 2010: 150 games, .275 BA, .333 OBP, .388 SLG, 11 HR, 56 RBI
2011 projection: 153 games, .266 BA, .339 OBP, .374 SLG, 10 HR, 60 RBI
Jed Lowrie: 2010: 55 games, .287 BA, .381 OBP, .526 SLG, 9 HR, 24 RBI
2011 projection: 144 games, .270 BA, .361 OBP, .467 SLG, 17 HR, 75 RBI

Either James is predicting that Lowrie will be a utility guy and get a lot of games at other positions, or he's guessing one of these two will be traded. Either way, both players have respectable lines - though Lowrie's are a bit better across the board. If Lowrie can manage to keep himself healthy (I know that's a big "if" given the history) he'll probably play more, but let's face it: they're both just place-holders until Jose Iglesias is ready.
CATCHER:Jason Varitek: 2010: 39 games, .232 BA, .293 OBP, .473 SLG, 7 HR, 16 RBI
2011 projection: 72 games, .228 BA, .324 OBP, .386 SLG, 33 RBI
Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
2010: 12 games, .167 BA, .333 OBP, .292 SLG, 0 HR, 2 RBI
2011 projection: 110 games, .249 BA, .323 OBP, .422 SLG, 12 HR, 43 RBI

Not the best thing you've ever seen, but if Salty can come into his own defensively while Tek shows him the ropes, I think we can deal with this line. One more note: Salty hits righthanders better, while Tek is pretty good against lefties - I think that's what we'll see.


The very fact that I can plausibly design a lineup that has David Ortiz hitting sixth and JD Drew seventh makes me very excited. I'm sure Tito will figure things out, and his lineup will be fantastic - if we can just keep healthy (PLEASE?!?) this should be a fantastic team to watch.

Pinch me, I'm dreaming.

[Screengrabbed from Boston.com]

This was my thought in the wee hours of this morning. I had gone to be early for me, around 11pm, about 25 minutes before the Globe first reported the Crawford deal. At 4am I woke up to see my phone glowing. I got out of bed, picked it up, and read a text from a friend that said: "Carl crawford signs w/ Boston 7 yrs $142 mill". Since I was up already (and in a slight state of panicked excitement) I checked on the internet, and it was true.

My efforts to go back to sleep after the confirmation that Carl Crawford is now a Red Sox were pretty futile, but I managed to doze off around six. When I woke up for class two hours later, my first thought was that the whole thing had been a wonderful dream, but, as you know, it was true.

I have to be honest: I never thought Crawford would be coming to Boston. Especially after the Adrian Gonzalez deal, I assumed the Red Sox would stay in on the speedy outfielder simply to drive up the price for New York while they were still preoccupied with Cliff Lee. Like many people (Torii Hunter among them), I took it for granted that Crawford would be patrolling the field at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, but I'm certainly thrilled to have him in Boston.

Bill James predicts a typically good year for Crawford in 2011: 149 games played, .300 BA, .350 OBP, .398 SLG, 14 HR, 71 RBI, and 42 SB. Keep in mind that Crawford's power numbers will likely improve from those predictions because he'll be playing 81 games in the friendly confines of Fenway.

Perhaps the best part of the Crawford deal is the fact that he'll no longer swipe about a million bags on us every season (including six in one game) - he'll be stealing all those bases on our behalf. Coupled with a (hopefully) recovered Jacoby Ellsbury and the perennially discounted JD Drew, Crawford makes our outfield one of the speediest in baseball.

I can't believe this is real...

2011 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Rotation

Yesterday we established that the 2010 version of the Red Sox performed at a poorer than expected level because of pitching, and not (exclusively) injuries. This was particularly surprising because the rotation was the one thing we all figured we wouldn't have to worry about: Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, and Matsuzaka - and we even had Wakefield, who, despite his age and lack of consistency, is a hell of a sixth man.

However, there were injuries to Beckett and Matsuzaka, and Lackey was rather less productive than we'd collectively hoped (I suppose you could say he was LACKing - get it?!?). The bullpen was a volitile mess, especially if you look at their performance without counting the stats from Bard and Paps (who had his worst season, but still superior to most relievers).

So what's in store for next year? No one can know for sure, but the Bill James Handbook at least offers predictions based on math I don't really understand, rather than total guesses pulled out of thin air.

So, without further ado, here are James' predictions for members of the presumptive pitchers for the 2011 Sox (accompanied by their 2010 numbers):

Josh Beckett:2010: 6-6, 21 starts, 127.2 IP, 5.78 ERA
2011 prediction: 10-9, 26 starts, 168 IP, 3.86 ERA
Beckett's lost season was a HUGE part of the reason the Sox missed out on the playoffs in 2010, and even a reasonable bounce back like the one James is predicting would give the Red Sox a fantastic edge.

Clay Buchholz:2010: 17-7, 28 starts, 173.2 IP, 2.33 ERA
2011 prediction: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA
I'm going to go on record here and guess that James is underestimating Clay. The dominance we saw last season was not a fluke, and I'm confident Buchholz can be consistent in 2011. There's a reason Theo hasn't accepted any trade offers for Clay, and what we saw last year was just the beginning.

John Lackey:2010: 14-11, 33 starts, 215 IP, 4.40 ERA
2011 prediction: 13-12, 33 starts, 227 IP, 3.89 ERA
When I actually saw Lackey's 2010 stats, I have to confess to being a bit surprised that he was such an innings-eater. If he can live up to these predictions as the third/fourth starter, I will be content.

Daisuke Matsuzaka:2010: 9-6, 25 starts, 153.2 IP, 4.69 ERA
2011 prediction: 10-9, 27 starts, 173 IP, 3.85 ERA
Again, I'll take it. No, Matsuzaka has never been the ace we thought we were getting way back in the offseason of 2007, but (aside from his lost 2009) he's been more than adequate for the back of the rotation, and I expect he'll continue to be consistent(ly infuriating to watch).

Jon Lester:2010: 19-9, 32 starts, 208 IP, 3.25 ERA
2011 prediction: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA
I think Lester will do better than this, especially if he can figure out how to avoid the awful April we've come to expect from him. James badly underestimated Lester in his predictions for 2010, and I think he's cut the southpaw short again this year.

Tim Wakefield:2010:4-10, 19 starts, 130 IP 5.34 ERA
2011 predictions: 6-6, 14 starts, 115 IP, 4.07 ERA
If Wake gets to start at all in 2011, it will be spot starts here and there. The knuckleballer's career is winding down, and though it's hard to say goodbye, this season will likely be his last.

I'm going to leave the relievers out of this equation for now, since roles and such will be in flux, and the Sox bullpen is likely going to see some serious revamping before Opening Day (which is MUCH too far away). But, if the members of the rotation listed above can match their projections (and if one or two of them *cough*Buchholz*Lester*cough* can exceed them), I think 2011 will be a much more productive year for the Sox, at least pitching-wise.

Surprising shortcomings of the 2010 Red Sox

According to the rankings in the 2011 Bill James Handbook, the 2010 Boston Red Sox had the third best offense in the American League. The only offense that performed better than Boston was their AL East competition, the New York Yankees (Tampa Bay came in third, not shockingly).

The Sox had more doubles than any other team in the AL, with 358, and they had the second-most home runs with 211 (98 at home, 113 on the road). They had the second most RBIs (782), behind those pesky Yanks, who drove in 823. Perhaps most interestingly, the Red Sox blew all other teams out of the collective water in the total bases category, collecting 2546 total bags, fifty more than the next highest total.

Despite missing the offense of the prodigious Youkilis, the Red Sox had a productive year scoring runs.

So with such an impressive offensive pedigree, how did the Red Sox miss out on the playoffs? The easy answer is, of course, the barrage of injuries suffered by the home nine, but the numbers tell a different story. Obviously, the Red Sox scored more than enough runs to be a playoff-caliber team, and yet somehow they did not manage to get there.

The explanation, according to James, is simple: baseball has two sides, offense and defense, and the Red Sox were pretty terrible at the latter. Remember way back during the 2009-2010 offseason, when Theo promised us a run-prevention machine? Yeah, those claims are pretty laughable, because the Handbook's advanced stats rate the Red Sox defense as the third worst in the American League, only better than the Angels and Royals.

However, most people would agree that the single most important asset to a successful ball club is pitching, and for all of the praise the Boston rotation garnered before the season, it certainly didn't live up to expectations. The Sox pitching staff was the fourth worst in the AL in 2010, better than cellar dwellers Cleveland, Baltimore, and Kansas City. Red Sox pitchers gave up 679 earned runs, had an ERA of 4.20, and gave the most free passes in the league, with 580 walks.

All of these things together led to a dissapointing season. If the once-vaunted rotation had lived up to even one tenth of its potential, we could have had October baseball. But, for whatever reason, they couldn't. The Red Sox offense - which, if you recall, was everyone's #1 worry last offseason - was championship caliber, and the other facets of the team couldn't keep up.

Tomorrow, we'll take a look at James' predictions for 2011, and see if the coming season has a happier ending in store... Hopefully it at least has fewer casts, boots, surgeries, and contusions.

The Inanity of ESPN

I was watching ESPN's Baseball Tonight the other day, and they mentioned Brett Favre. By itself this wouldn't be particularly surprising, as it's ALWAYS appropriate to work the 40-year-old quarterback into media coverage of any kind. No, what was shocking to me was the context of the mention, when they implied that the impact Jim Thome would have on the Twins would be comparable to the impact Favre had on the Vikings.

Lull in the conversation? Let's talk about Brett Favre!

There are so many things wrong with this that I hardly know where to begin, so let's start with the obvious: comparing baseball to football is like comparing apples to tires. Take the sport with by far the most games, and compare it to the one with the fewest, and then take it one step further and take a DH and compare him to a quarterback. If you had to choose the position on the diamond to dub the "quarterback" it would be catcher, and maybe pitcher, center fielder, or shortstop, but never designated hitter.

Then there's the sheer inanity of the idea that one [aging] hitter could have a season-changing effect on a team. In 2008, Thome had a WARP of 2.9. To put that in perspective, his new teammate Joe Mauer had a WARP of 7.1. Bill James predicts that Thome's 2010 line will look something like this: .245 BA, .374 OBP, 29 HR, 81 RBI. I'm not trying to belittle a line like that, since it would be rather impressive, but (as much as it pains me to say it) what Favre did for the Vikings was pretty special, leading them to a 12-4 record and the playoffs. If Thome can have that kind of impact on the Twins season, expect them to finish some where around 122-40.


I actually hope Thome does well with the Twins: I like them (unless they're playing us), and I'm always impressed with their ability to field such a good team for reasonable cash. However, the ESPN analysts need to do some work on their comparison skills, and here's a special tip: I never turn on Baseball Tonight to hear about Brett Favre.

The Most [Terrible] Time of the Year

It's that time of year again. The time when radio stations start playing Christmas music between their weekly NFL predictions, when a forecast for snow is still exciting rather than daunting, and when baseball is rarely in the news. Sure, SportsCenter might spend thirty seconds on trade possibilities and minor pickups, but until a major free agent is signed, people are more worried about touchdowns, power plays, and free throws than home runs and strikeouts.

That being said, I would like to apologize in advance: there won't be lengthy posts every day for a while. I'll try to put something up for you guys daily, but I can't promise anything - especially since the end of semester rush is here, and I think my professors are literally trying to bury me in work.

Needless to say, this is not my favorite time of year, but it brightened up a bit yesterday when I got a package in the mail:


The Teammates by David Halberstam is about Johnny Pesky, Ted Williams, Dom DiMaggio, and Bobby Doerr, and the special relationship they shared as teammates and friends. It was recommended to me by several of my readers, and though I'm just thirty-six pages in, I would like to thank you all, as I can tell it's going to be a mainstay of my baseball library for years to come.

It was Never About the Babe is by Jerry M. Gutlon, and promises to be an interesting read, as it discusses the racism that was inherent in the management of the Sox for many years. There was no "Curse of the Bambino" (though Dan Shaughnessy thanks you for believing in it and buying his books), and this book will explain exactly why and how the Red Sox failed for so long.

As far as curses go, I'd like to take this opportunity to express my belief that there's something to that Billy Goat thing in Chicago... 101 years? Really?

And last but certainly not least is The 2010 Bill James Handbook. You've heard me say this before, and you're sure to hear it again, but I love Bill James. I pulled out the Handbook at lunch on Friday to show my friends (I could barely contain my excitement), and they just stared. I opened it up to show the pages of player stats and equations for fielding prowess, and they remained silent. Finally, one of them asked the ultimate question: "Explain to me again how you hate math?" Oh, if only there was a course on baseball statistics! Even once I explained the genius that is Bill James, they judged me. Sure, they nodded politely at all the right times, but none of them really got it, and that's fine.

Hopefully I'll be getting some more baseball books for Christmas, so I'll make it to Spring Training alive and (reasonably) sane. Until then, I'll carry on my illicit love affair with Bill James and Co., and my friends can judge me all they want.

Hindsight is 20/20 (Pitching)

Earlier this month, I did an entry comparing the Bill James projections of position player performances to their actual numbers. As always, James was correct more often than not. I had a reader request after that post that I do one concerning our pitchers, and I agreed to - once the playoffs were over. Alas, I would much rather be typing up Red Sox ALCS preview, but this will have to do:

STARTERS

Josh Beckett:
Projection: 29 games, 189 IP, 21 HR, 176 SO, 3.57 ERA, 13-8 record
Actual: 32, 212.1, 25, 199, 3.86, 17-6

Despite the panic in Red Sox Nation over Josh's late-season performance, he actual over-achieved in virtually every category except HR and ERA, and those were close. While Lester may have overtaken him as the ace, he remains a top-tier pitcher.

Jon Lester:
Projection: 32 games, 212 IP, 19 HR, 168 SO, 4.02 ERA, 12-11 record
Actual: 32, 203.1, 20, 225, 3.41, 15-8

Lester emerged as a true top of the rotation guy this year, breaking the franchise single season strikeouts record for a southpaw, and becoming the dominating force he was projected to be. Obviously, be smashed James' SO, ERA, and W-L projections, but there was some worry that his innings from the 2008 campaign might adversely affect him... Clearly, that wasn't the case.

Daisuke Matsuzaka:
Projection: 30 games, 184 IP, 17 HR, 174 SO, 3.58 ERA, 12-8 record
Actual: 12, 59.1, 10, 54, 5.76, 4-6

Obviously, James couldn't have predicted Daisuke's terrible offseason training regimen, which sent him to the WBC and then Spring Training completely out of shape and unable to perform. This, of course, resulted in a lost season from the Japanese enigma. However, the guy we saw in September was encouraging: here's hoping he actually does his workouts this winter.

Tim Wakefield:
Projection: 28 games, 160 IP, 21 HR, 107 SO, 3.91 ERA, 10-8 record
Actual: 21, 129.2, 12, 72, 4.58, 11-5

Knuckleballs are hard to predict on the field, and even more difficult to predict over the course of a season. Wake had an amazing first half, going to his first All-Star game, and let's not forget that gem he threw in April, which could be pointed to as an early turning point for the team. Though his second-half problems are becoming a habit, I'd like to see the team give him another year, especially for $4 million.

(Clay Buchholz was not listed in the 2009 Bill James Handbook)

RELIEVERS

Manny Delcarmen:
Projection: 71 games, 81 IP, 3.44 ERA, 6-3 record, 1 save
Actual: 64, 59.2, 4.53, 5-2, 0

MDC had a great start, lest you forget, but his second half slide was particularly bad, as he melted down in several important situations. People who would know (Curt Schilling, for one) often say that Delcarmen has some of the best stuff on the team, and could be a closer on many teams... It just doesn't look like he has the makeup - except maybe in the National League.

Hideki Okajima:
Projection: 61 games, 61 IP, 3.19 ERA, 5-2 record, 0 saves
Actual: 68, 61, 3.39, 6-0, 0

Oki was what we have come to expect: a quietly above-average pitcher who can get right- and left-handers out with nearly equal efficiency, who can come in to get a single out or go two innings. His consistency is a luxury that many teams don't have. Who's the throw-in now, Daisuke?

Takashi Saito:
Projection: 50 games, 52 IP, 3.09 ERA, 4-2 record, 20 saves
Actual: 56, 55.2, 2.43, 3-3, 2 saves

This one is more interesting: Saito's projections were based off what he would do if he were to stay the closer for the Dodgers. Clearly, when he came to Boston, his role changed: he didn't save games unless Paps wasn't available, and after Billy Wags came to town, forget it. However, his ERA was excellent for someone of his age and cost, and he exceeded expectations (numerically), even within the AL East.

Ramon Ramirez:
Projection:66 games, 67 IP, 3.74 ERA, 4-4 record, 1 save
Actual: 70, 69.2, 2.84, 7-4, 0

Again, Ramirez's projections were based on the assumption that he would be playing in Kansas City, yet he STILL exceeded all expectations across the board, even with the new pressures of a pennant race and a city that blows everything baseball-related out of proportions. Thanks, Coco!

Jonathan Papelbon:
Projection: 64 games, 71 IP, 2.04 ERA, 5-3 record, 41 saves
Actual: 66, 68, 1.85, 1-1, 38

Despite some shakiness in the first half, while he was "changing his mechanics," Paps had an extremely good year. His ERA was awesome, and despite the heart attacks, he converted his save opportunities more often than not. However, his most impressive stat is probably the combined 5,000 years he took off the lives of Sox fans everywhere.

(Daniel Bard and Billy Wagner are not listed in the 2009 Bill James Handbook)

Hindsight is 20/20

Every winter, I preorder The Bill James Handbook for the upcoming year, and before I look at anything else, I flip to the projections for the coming season... Then, at the end of the year, I get to look back and compare the projections to the actual results. James and his cohorts are right more often than not, and this year was no exception:

Jacoby Ellsbury:
Projection:.302 AVG, .359 OBP, 9 HR, 53 RBI, 52 SB
Actual: .301, .355, 8, 60, 70The extra RBIs can be attributed to the fact that Golden Boy wasn't batting leadoff all season, something James would not have factored into his calculations...

Dustin Pedroia:
Projection: .315, .376, 15, 78,16
Actual: .296, .371, 15, 72, 20This year, Pedey had to deal with pitchers that finally took him seriously, which explains his average dropping, but Bill James obviously underestimated his wheels.

Victor Martinez:
Projected: .300, .374, 17, 92, 0
Actual: .303, .381, 23, 108, 1VMart had an overachieving year all around, according to James' projections... Here's hoping he can keep it up!

Kevin Youkilis:
Projection: .289, .386, 23, 101, 4
Actual: .305, .413, 27, 94, 7Youk continues to prove that underestimating him won't get you very far. A legitimate threat who never gives away a single at-bat, we're lucky to have him.

David Ortiz:
Projection: .288, .396, 37, 119, 1
Actual: .238, .332, 28, 99, 0
Obviously, if you factor in Papi's hellacious slump (something even the estimable Mr. James could not have predicted), this is an acceptable season. For many players, this is an exceptional season: for Ortiz, it's an off year. And that says it all.

JD Drew:
Projection: .273, .395, 22, 79, 5
Actual: .279, .392, 24, 68, 2You know how I feel about Drew, and if you don't, ask Theo how HE feels about Drew. It's the same. Drew is an extremely valuable player who is undervalued by the fans.

Mike Lowell:
Projected: .277, .343, 16, 75, 2
Actual: .290, .337, 17, 75, 2Wow. That is damn close. But if you had told me in April that Mikey would steal two bases, I would have told you to stop being so optimistic.

Jason Bay:
Projection: .280, .376, 30, 102, 9
Actual: .267, .384, 36, 119, 13Jason Bay had a great year, which is anything but a shocking new development. I'm just hoping he keeps playing for the good guys next year...

Jason Varitek:
Projection:.238, 334, 13, 52, 1
Actual: .209, .313, 14,51, 0
They say the first step is hitting your weight, and the beleaguered captain couldn't even do that this year (he's listed at 210)... Varitek has given his heart and soul to this team for many years, and as painful as this is, it's time to say goodbye.

[Alex Gonzalez did not have projections in the 2009 Bill James Handbook.]

I Dream of Baseball

Today was one of those rare days that desire and opportunity collide. Yes, I took a nap. And it was an awesome nap, complete with confusing dream fragments that you barely remember when you wake up. However, I remember bits and pieces: Daisuke Matsuzaka was involved, and I distinctly remember something about the logistics of VORP.

The man of my dreams... literally. I think I have a problem.

Normally, I forget my dreams so completely that I would doubt I ever had them, except that I learned in Psychology class that everybody dreams, no exceptions. The only thing I could think of upon waking was that if my dreams are always about baseball, I wish I could remember them better. This got me thinking: most people (specifically 19-year-old girls) don't dream of baseball and all of its statistical glory, and I'm willing to bet that if they did, they wouldn't be nearly as excited about it as I am.

Clearly, my subconscious understands that I thirst for baseball discourse in my everyday life, and though my friends humor me occasionally, I never really get to talk about it in any sort of depth (except on Twitter). You would think it would be easy to find people who want to talk baseball, but alas, that's not the case. Most of my friends don't follow it at all, and the rest know the basics (ERA, batting average, etc.); to them, Bill James might as well be that awkward kid in the dining hall who only eats white food.

From April- October (November this year) I survive this by watching baseball, and reading the copious amounts of material written about it. However, in the winter I mostly rely on baseball books, both fiction and nonfiction, for my daily fix. It's an expensive habit, but much cheaper than hiring a therapist to listen to me wax poetic about the value of WHIP and quality starts versus W-L%. However, I'm running out of things to read, and, much like an animal preparing to hibernate, I'm looking for literary suggestions for the bleak months ahead. What's your favorite baseball book? Do you prefer biographies, fiction, or history? Help!

Backing in?

There's been a lot of talk lately about the Sox "backing into the playoffs." Tito is resting the regulars, and trying to get the pitching lined up. I understand that it's frustrating for those who bought tickets to this series to watch a glorified PawSox lineup get beaten up by Roy Halladay, but you know what? I trust Tito, and I trust his staff, because they have led us to the promised land more often than anyone in living memory.

Now, some of you might subscribe to the Billy Beane theory: namely, that getting into the playoffs is the real test, and it's a crapshoot from there. I understand the logic, because anything can happen, especially in the LDS when the series is best of five, but I find it lacking. Normally, I swear by the theories of Bill James just as much as Beane does, but even more than that, I believe that good pitching will beat good hitting, every time.

Lester is giving me confidence tonight, he looks to have bounced back well from the beanball incident in the Bronx. Becks, assuming his "back spasms" were nothing more sinister, is not to be doubted in the postseason. Clay, of course, has yet to prove himself, but Daisuke looks to be on the right track. The bottom line, of course, is that if Lester and Beckett are at their best, they're practically unhittable, and can go deep into games. In a five OR seven game series, I like our chances behind those two.

In the Postseason, Josh does whatever the hell he wants. Including cursing in live press conferences. Suck it, FCC!

About me:

Basically, I started this blog because I am more than a little preoccupied with the Red Sox, and since I'm beginning to run out of Sox blogs to read, I thought I would write my own; even if no one even reads it, I'll have a space for my thoughts [since my immediate family tunes me out when I start waxing poetic about the genius of Bill James].

Most of my friends are what you would call "casual fans," and therefore have no interest in Dustin Pedroia's OPS+ [you'll discover in short order that I have a minor obsession with our diminutive second basemen]. It makes me feel a little better [read: not insane] that I've found whole online communities of people like myself, whose lives are all but consumed with baseball in general and the Red Sox in particular.

I plan to post every day, since one of the things that frustrates me most about my favorite blogs is that I sometimes have to wait for new entries. I understand that most bloggers have actual jobs to attend to, but really, what are people's priorities?? [Another upside to Off the Monster: since I'm a student, I have a disgraceful amount of free time on my hands, which of course means more time to write.]

However, I think that's enough for now. Oh, and for those who are interested, Pedroia's OPS+ was 122 in 2008.