Ellsbury out 6-8 weeks, Sox call up Lin

According the Boston.com's Extra Bases blog, Jacoby Ellsbury's collision with Reid Brignac, the Rays' shortstop has resulted in a shoulder subluxation (a partial separation) and will be out 6-8 weeks.

Brignac apologized profusely, and it was obviously an accident, so I don't think there will be any hard feelings.  Unfortunately, all the apologies in the world won't allow Che Hsuan-Lin to replace Ellsbury's production while Golden Boy rehabs.
 

By all accounts, Lin is more than capable of duplicating Ellsbury's defense, as SoxProspects.com rates him well with "Plus speed.  Ability to steal 20-25 bases in the big leagues.  Well-above average defender.  Possesses outstanding defensive instincts.  Seems to get a head start on balls off the bat.  Covers excellent ground from gap-to-gap.  Plus-plus arm, with improving accuracy."

Sadly, Lin will probably be unable to live up to Bill James' projections for Ellsbury: .304 BA, .362 OBP, .476 SLG.  If Ells is back in exactly eight weeks, we should see him for the beginning of interleague play in Washington, DC on Friday, June 8th.

Can the Red Sox do it without him until then? They've already lost their closer, Andrew Bailey, until sometime around the All Star Break, and the loss of the runner-up for the 2012 MVP Award can't be overlooked. Personally, I think they'll be able to hang in - so long as the pitching staff can hold things together.

Check out this link from ESPN Boston for more info on the injury: http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7811757/boston-red-sox-fear-jacoby-ellsbury-miss-significant-time

Optimism rewarded!

Due to a series of unexpected events, I was able to catch the last four innings of today's game - I had thought I was going to miss the whole thing.  So after running back to my room after an ESPN info session at Career Services, I immediately turned on the TV and was pleased to see that the Sox were leading 4-1 in the sixth inning.

I did pretty well with my morning predictions: Beckett went out there and pitched his heart out, going eight innings (and it would have been nine if the Sox half of the eighth hadn't been so explosive) giving up a single run on one hit and one walk.

The lineup certainly rose to the occasion, as everyone but Cody Ross had at least one hit - and Ross had a sacrifice fly for an RBI. Kevin Youkilis in particular had a great day, going 2-for-4 with 3 RBIs, while Adrian Gonzalez continued his early success with a 3-for-5 day and an RBI.  Sadly, my only incorrect prediction was about Pedey: he didn't manage to hit a home run today, but he did beat out an infield hit once I started watching.

The funniest moment of the day had to be Kelly Shoppach's first career stolen base (above) which included a failed slide and then a flop.  I wondered at Shoppach's presence over Salty when I saw the lineup this morning, but obviously Bobby V. knew what he was doing when he put the lineup card together.

It wasn't all sunshine and rainbows today, as Jacoby Ellsbury left the game with a shoulder injury after going 2-for-3 with an RBI to start the game. Here's hoping Golden Boy makes a quick and full recovery.

When we know more about the extent of Ellsbury's injury, I'll post an update here - after his killer season last year, the Red Sox cannot afford to lose Ells long term.

Opening Day optimism

I'm guessing that most of you, like me, are on the redsox.com mailing list, and you also woke up to the above picture in your email.  It's a beautiful photo (and really just makes me want to sneak into Fenway in the early morning with a camera) to start off Opening Day - here's hoping at that time tomorrow the Sox will have kicked off a winning streak.

By chance, I was at the final home game of last season, and like most of September, the day ended in a loss (to the Orioles, no less).  At the time, I wasn't too worried, since there six games still to play and I figured they would clinch soon enough. I won't rehash it now, on the morning of a fresh start, but you all know how that worked out.

I know that there are mixed feelings about the movie Fever Pitch, but there's one scene from it in particular that encompasses how I feel today (and on all Home Openers): the main character's season tickets have arrived, and after he's embraced the delivery guy, he and his friends open the box, touching and smelling and caressing the tickets.  "A new season," says one of them with awe, "a clean slate." The main character smells his sheet of tickets and declares that "this smells like the year."

From all the way in Connecticut, this smells like the year. Soon enough we'll have forgotten this 1-5 start, the bullpen will shake out the kinks, and the field players will find their groove.  Opening Day is about unbridled optimism, and since I won't be able to watch this year (I have to commentate Trinity baseball this afternoon), I'm broadcasting my good feelings now.

I'm predicting Josh Beckett will go out there looking to prove himself after an abysmal start last week in Detroit, and pitch deep into the game.  The lineup will rise to the occasion of performing in front of the Fenway crowd, and those who have been struggling (I'm looking at you Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis) will get in in gear.

Sox take Opening Day, and for my final prediction, Dustin Pedroia goes yard - because that's just what he does on Opening Day.

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Outfielders

[A continuation of this post which I began with the Bill James projections for infielders.]


Left field, Carl Crawford:
2011 projection: 149 games, .300 BA, .350 OBP, .453 SLG, 14 HR, 93 RBI
2011: 130 games, .255 BA, .289 OBP, .405 SLG, 11 HR, 56 RBI
2012 projection: 155 games, .286 BA, .332 OBP, .436 SLG, 15 HR, 73 RBI

It's no secret that Crawford performed rather less well than we had hoped he would last season, and James' expectations seem to have been lowered in keeping with 2011.  The good news is that though Crawford only managed to steal 18 bases last year, James thinks he'll steal 34 next season.


Center field, Jacoby Ellsbury:
2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI
2011: 158 games, .321 BA, .376 OBP, .552 SLG, 32 HR, 105 RBI
2012 projection: 158 games, .304 BA, .362 OBP, .476 SLG, 19 HR, 72 RBI

I think it's safe to say that Ellsbury proved himself last year, but apparently James is expecting a backslide. Here's hoping Goldenboy proves him wrong.


[Possible] Right fielder, Ryan Sweeney:
2011: 108 games, .265 BA, .346 OBP, .341 SLG, 1 HR, 25 RBI
2012 projection: 105 games, .285 BA, .353 OBP, .392 SLG, 4 HR, 36 RBI

Both last years numbers and the projections were for Oakland - and Sweeney's playing time is up in the air.  These numbers are solid enough for a fourth outfielder, but I'd like to see more power out of a permanent corner guy.

[Possible] Right fielder, Darnell McDonald:
2011: 79 games, .236 BA, .303 OBP, .401 SLG, 6 HR, 24 RBI

2012 projection: 113 games, .268 BA, .325 OBP, .320 SLG, 9 HR, 40 RBI


McDonald has been more than serviceable in the last few years - the right fielder job is still up in the air, and it stands to reason he'll get a shot at it.


Other possibilities for the outfield include Ryan Kalish and Che-Hsuan Lin, both of whom spent last year in the minors, so they don't have projections in the 2012 Handbook.

Win-win for Red Sox fans

[This video has always pissed me off a little, since I feel it implies that female baseball fans are somehow unable to appreciate the nuances of a pitcher's duel, and can only pay attention to the fireworks of homeruns.]

Anyway, you all know that THIS female fan has a place in her heart for games of all types, from no-hitters to blowouts, they all have something to offer, and tonight's game had a little bit of everything.

Josh Beckett went six innings, allowing four hits and one run (a longball by Mike Napoli that this "chick" certainly didn't "dig"), then Franklin Morales came in and tossed a perfect inning with two K's, and Matt Albers came in for the eighth, giving up a single run on two hits and a walk.  For some inexplicable reason, Jonathan Papelbon entered the game, recording a one-two-three ninth inning, though it was nowhere close to being a save situation.

The bats were alive and well tonight - finally - as Adrian Gonzalez went deep for the second straight game, and Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford notched homeruns of their own.  Crawford, Marco Scutaro, and the newly returned David Ortiz all struck doubles, and Ellsbury swiped his thirty-fifth stolen base. 

When it was all over, the Red Sox had scored thirteen runs, and everyone in the starting lineup had at least one hit.  Tonight's game was a win-win for Sox fans - whether you dig the longball, splendid pitching performances, or inexplicable calls to the bullpen.

Some things never change.

Back in Little League (or, in my case, elementary school softball), you stuck the player you didn't want handling the ball too much in right field.  When I was in second grade and the youngest player on my softball teams, they stuck me in right field, so I could be distracted by dandelions in peace (do you know how rare lefthanded pull hitters are at that age?).

Last night was a similar story.  The Sox stuck Adrian Gonzalez in right field, and (I'm sure) practically prayed he wouldn't have to make any difficult plays.  It worker: he handled the ball just once defensively, playing it on a hop and getting it back in.  A pulse-quickening ball hit in the eighth went over his head and bounced of the wall, but it was ultimately corralled by center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.

Hopefully this plan proves more fruitful tonight... as good as the Phillies are, I am NOT okay with being swept by them. 

2011 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Lineup

I know, I know, this is what you've all been waiting for - and I have kept you waiting. In my defense, had I done this any sooner, I wouldn't have been able to include Adrian Gonzalez or Carl Crawford, and their presence certainly changes things in a big way. Two weeks ago, I presented the Bill James projections for the rotation (58-48 from the front five), and it's high time I did the same for the lineup. Keep in mind, this batting order is just my guess - I'm sure it will change based on who the other team has pitching, who needs rest, and how everyone is doing, so take it with a grain of salt.

CENTER FIELD: Jacoby Ellsbury: 2010: 18 games, .192 BA, .241 OBP, .244 SLG, 0 HR, 5 RBI
2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI

If Goldenboy lives up to these numbers, I promise to stop calling him D-Ellsbury, and maybe even become a fan. In all seriousness, you could ask for more form a leadoff hitter, but it would be pretty demanding. I could definitely live with this line from Ells.

SECOND BASE:Dustin Pedroia: 2010: 75 games, .288 BA, .367 OBP, .493 SLG, 12 HR, 41 RBI
2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI

Hubby is expected to be back to his old voracious, impressive, and loudmouth self in 2011, after a season that was a wash due to injury. Pedey hits best when he's batting second, and he seems to like it, so I expect Tito to keep him there.
LEFT FIELD:Carl Crawford: 2010: 154 games, .307 BA, .356 OBP, .495 SLG, 19 HR, 90 RBI
2011 projection: 149 games, .300 BA, .350 OBP, .453 SLG, 14 HR, 93 RBI

Let's deal with the elephant in the room first: is Crawford worth $20+ million a year? Probably not, but I'm thrilled he's coming to Boston at any cost. I REALLY wish he was willing to bat leadoff, but apparently he hates it, and Tito's not one to go against a player's wishes, but he'll definitely be somewhere near the top. His numbers might be slightly better at Fenway than the Trop, but the difference won't be anything crazy.

THIRD BASE:Kevin Youkilis: 2010: 102 games, .307 BA, .411 OBP, .564 SLG, 19 HR, 62 RBI
2011 projection: 151 games, .294 BA, .398 OBP, .507 SLG, 25 HR, 95 RBI

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Kevin Youkilis is under-appreciated by this fanbase - and that's hard to do. He's wildly consistent, and his willingness and ability to slide across the diamond to third base next year is huge.
FIRST BASE:Adrian Gonzalez: 2010: 160 games, .298 BA, .393 OBP, .511 SLG, 31 HR, 101 RBI
2011 projection: 161 games, .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG, 33 HR, 102 RBI

Keep in mind that Gonzo's numbers are likely to improve due to the Fenway effect. He spent last season playing in Petco Park, where doubles go to die, but even if we only (ONLY!) get the numbers predicted by James, I'll be happy.

DESIGNATED HITTER:David Ortiz: 2010: 145 games, .270 BA, .370 OBP, .529 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI
2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI

Expect the usual from Papi: he'll struggle mightily in April, and then find his stroke sometime in May, just as the howling about his $12.5 million salary reaches fever pitch. In the end, he'll produce what we've come to expect from him, which isn't too shabby when you really look at it.

RIGHT FIELD: JD Drew: 2010: 139 games, .255 BA, .341 OBP, .452 SLG, 22 HR, 68 RBI
2011 projection: 145 games, .263 BA, .370 OBP, .460 SLG, 22 HR, 77 RBI

Mike Cameron: 2010: 48 games, .259 BA, .328 OBP, .401 SLG, 4 HR, 15 RBI
2011 projection: 121 games, .239 BA, .327 OBP, .425 SLG, 18 HR, 58 RBI

Because the outfield is so lefty-heavy, I expect Cameron to get more than enough playing time. I'm coupling him with Drew for the purpose of these projections simply because Drew tends to miss significant time with injuries each year. On the other hand, it is a contract year for Drew, so maybe he'll surprise us.
SHORTSTOP:Marco Scutaro: 2010: 150 games, .275 BA, .333 OBP, .388 SLG, 11 HR, 56 RBI
2011 projection: 153 games, .266 BA, .339 OBP, .374 SLG, 10 HR, 60 RBI
Jed Lowrie: 2010: 55 games, .287 BA, .381 OBP, .526 SLG, 9 HR, 24 RBI
2011 projection: 144 games, .270 BA, .361 OBP, .467 SLG, 17 HR, 75 RBI

Either James is predicting that Lowrie will be a utility guy and get a lot of games at other positions, or he's guessing one of these two will be traded. Either way, both players have respectable lines - though Lowrie's are a bit better across the board. If Lowrie can manage to keep himself healthy (I know that's a big "if" given the history) he'll probably play more, but let's face it: they're both just place-holders until Jose Iglesias is ready.
CATCHER:Jason Varitek: 2010: 39 games, .232 BA, .293 OBP, .473 SLG, 7 HR, 16 RBI
2011 projection: 72 games, .228 BA, .324 OBP, .386 SLG, 33 RBI
Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
2010: 12 games, .167 BA, .333 OBP, .292 SLG, 0 HR, 2 RBI
2011 projection: 110 games, .249 BA, .323 OBP, .422 SLG, 12 HR, 43 RBI

Not the best thing you've ever seen, but if Salty can come into his own defensively while Tek shows him the ropes, I think we can deal with this line. One more note: Salty hits righthanders better, while Tek is pretty good against lefties - I think that's what we'll see.


The very fact that I can plausibly design a lineup that has David Ortiz hitting sixth and JD Drew seventh makes me very excited. I'm sure Tito will figure things out, and his lineup will be fantastic - if we can just keep healthy (PLEASE?!?) this should be a fantastic team to watch.

Pinch me, I'm dreaming.

[Screengrabbed from Boston.com]

This was my thought in the wee hours of this morning. I had gone to be early for me, around 11pm, about 25 minutes before the Globe first reported the Crawford deal. At 4am I woke up to see my phone glowing. I got out of bed, picked it up, and read a text from a friend that said: "Carl crawford signs w/ Boston 7 yrs $142 mill". Since I was up already (and in a slight state of panicked excitement) I checked on the internet, and it was true.

My efforts to go back to sleep after the confirmation that Carl Crawford is now a Red Sox were pretty futile, but I managed to doze off around six. When I woke up for class two hours later, my first thought was that the whole thing had been a wonderful dream, but, as you know, it was true.

I have to be honest: I never thought Crawford would be coming to Boston. Especially after the Adrian Gonzalez deal, I assumed the Red Sox would stay in on the speedy outfielder simply to drive up the price for New York while they were still preoccupied with Cliff Lee. Like many people (Torii Hunter among them), I took it for granted that Crawford would be patrolling the field at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, but I'm certainly thrilled to have him in Boston.

Bill James predicts a typically good year for Crawford in 2011: 149 games played, .300 BA, .350 OBP, .398 SLG, 14 HR, 71 RBI, and 42 SB. Keep in mind that Crawford's power numbers will likely improve from those predictions because he'll be playing 81 games in the friendly confines of Fenway.

Perhaps the best part of the Crawford deal is the fact that he'll no longer swipe about a million bags on us every season (including six in one game) - he'll be stealing all those bases on our behalf. Coupled with a (hopefully) recovered Jacoby Ellsbury and the perennially discounted JD Drew, Crawford makes our outfield one of the speediest in baseball.

I can't believe this is real...

The 2010 Parade of Carnage

I wasn't happy after last night's joke of a game. However, neither did I feel the overpowering urge to scream and storm and throw things that a late-season loss to a divisional rival usually brings. When the last out was made, all I felt was a bitter sort of resignation - for all intents and purposes, this team was down and out long ago, and somehow they clung to hope far longer than they had any right to under the circumstances.

The Boston Red Sox are currently nine games behind the Yankees for the AL East title, and 7.5 behind the Rays in the Wild Card race. There are just 23 games left in the 2010 season, and 11 of those are against legitimate playoff contenders... Once, the Red Sox would have counted themselves among such fighters, but no longer. The 2010 Parade of Carnage dashed our collective playoff hopes long before we were ready to admit defeat. (And to be honest, I won't be ready to throw in the towel until the math says I have no choice.)

I could go through and list all of the injuries, player by player, but it's been done. Instead, I will SHOW how the injuries piled up, through screengrabs from some reputable Red Sox websites:

(via redsox.com; click to enlarge)

On July 11th, the Sox had a whopping eleven players on the disabled list (plus Junichi Tazawa, who was hurt in Spring Training). Since then, one has been traded (MDC, to the Rockies), one released (Jeremy Hermida), two are gone for the season (Pedroia and Ellsbury), six are back on the roster and producing some semblance of good baseball, and one (Josh Beckett) is stinking up the joint, despite his apparent "health."

(via boston.com's Extra Bases blog; click to enlarge)

On August 5th, we recieved word that Boston's most consistant hitter would be out for the season after a freak accident in the batter's box that would require him to undergo thumb surgery. At the time, few realized what a crushing blow this was, as several players were supposed to be on their way back, but Youk's absence has hurt us both on the scoreboard and in the field.

(via boston.com's Extra Bases blog; click to enlarge)

Within twenty minutes on August 18th, we were informed that two-thirds of our starting outfield would be AWOL until next Spring. Cameron's loss was somewhat glossed over because his stats left a lot to be desired this season, but keep in mind he was battling a severe sports hernia for much of the campaign, and never really got into a groove. Ellsbury, of course, is the type of dynamic player who really might have made a difference in some of this season's close games.

(via boston.com's Extra Bases blog; click to enlarge)

Then the most crushing blow of all: despite having returned for two games, Dustin Pedroia's foot was not healing, and so he would be lost for 2010. Besides being an excellent player, Pedey is the heart and soul of that clubhouse - the Sox couldn't be out of it until he SAID they were out of it... and Pedey doesn't admit defeat.

And so by today, the Sox DL looks like this:

(via redsox.com; click to enlarge)

Fewer players on the list, but none of them are walking through that door. Of the Opening Day Starters, four of nine are on that list. We've lost three Gold Glovers and the reigning stolen base champ; three All-Stars, and three former World Series winners. The worth of these four players absolutely cannot be overestimated.

If you look over the total missing players for the year, things get even more bleak: of the nine players on the field for the first pitch of 2010, six have spent at least 15 days on the disabled list. Shockingly, the only outfielder to stay healthy was JD Drew. Yes, JD Drew was the Boston outfield's version of Iron Man.

The ridiculous spate of injuries made writing the lineup card a daily adventure for Terry Francona...

(via baseball-reference.com; click to enlarge)

This is ridiculous. The Sox couldn't even be healthy enough to have seven games with the same lineup. SEVEN!

This team put up a hell of a fight - guys most of us had never heard of this time last year made real contributions, but in the end it doesn't seem to be enough. And for those of you ripping Theo for not getting reinforcements before the trade deadline, where was he supposed to get players of such pedigree? And most of them were supposed to come back; if they had in fact been healthy, where do you put the new additions?

No, you can't blame Theo, or Tito, or even the players. You can blame sheer dumb luck, and playing in a division with two of the best teams in baseball (and indisputably the one richest). Some of you are too young to remember that the Sox were not always perennial contenders (I'm on the cusp of that one), so let me remind you of the time-tested phrase of fanbases past: "Wait til next year."

Couldn't say it better myself.

Enough said.

The walking wounded

Just before the season started, the cynics predicted the Red Sox would miss the playoffs. They claimed that Theo Epstein's roster, as assembled, couldn't compete in the American League East. They scoffed at the signings of Bill Hall, Scott Atchison, and Jeremy Hermida, and insisted that the likes of Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron couldn't possibly contribute enough.

Three months and change later, and those doomsayers look even more foolish than usual, as key contributions have come from, of all people, Daniel Nava, Darnell McDonald, and Atchison, among others.

Even Kevin Youkilis appreciates McDonald.

Somehow, the Sox are just two games out of first place in their division, while the Rays, who were the fashionable favorites early on to run away with it, are in third place. All this despite a rash of injuries, including many to key players, including Josh Beckett, Jacoby Ellsbury, and now Dustin Pedroia.

According to the Boston Globe's Extra Bases blog, the injury bug isn't about to abate, as most of the key players are weeks away from rejoining the team. Beckett, though feeling better, still needs to complete a rehab assignment, and the Globe's Pete Abraham puts his return around the last week in July. Ellsbury is a mystery. The outfielder is still in Arizona, and no one seems to know how long the recovery will take, so don't hold your breath on seeing him before the All-Star break.

As for the more recent injuries, Pedroia will be out approximately six weeks with his left-foot fracture (I'm dying already), while Victor Martinez is a rare bright spot, who might - MIGHT - be able to play in a few days if his swelling goes down, even with a fractured left thumb.

The heart and soul of the Red Sox... and me.

This team has showed uncommon pluck in 2010, and if they can just weather the storm for a few weeks more and stay in contention until after the All-Star Game, help should be returning in droves. I for one think they can do it, especially if Pedroia hangs around the clubhouse in the meantime. What he means to that team in terms of spirit and drive absolutely cannot be overstated, and if he can be around to encourage and talk trash at the appropriate times, I think they'll pull through.

Baseball gods willing.

D-Ellsbury

Jacoby Ellsbury has played in exactly nine games for the big club this season. Yes, he has been injured. But he's rapidly getting a reputation as a "JD Drew" type player. In fact, Drew has missed just three games this season, but that's not the point: as a player, JD is viewed as "soft." He has a reputation for requesting time off for the slightest of ailments, and hangnail jokes are commonplace.

The perception in some circles is that agent Scott Boras is pulling the strings: fearful playing at less than 100% might hurt Ellsbury's numbers in an eventual arbitration hearing, Boras cautions him to take it slow.

Uncharacteristically for the organization, Dr. Thomas Gill spoke out about the situation: "It's simply not there," Gill said. "But whether it's there or not is not medically relevant. You treat it exactly the same."

The Red Sox have been more vocal than normal about their frustrations with the fragile Ellsbury, which is to say that they've actually let on that they're upset. Tito, who is famously tactful, has mentioned some concerns publicly, and the club sanctioned a "conference call with reporters to address what [Dr. Gill] called 'misconceptions.'"

This issue has divided Red Sox Nation. Essentially half the fanbase wants Ells to suck it up and get back on the field, while the other half is livid at the first half for insinuating that Golden Boy is less than perfect.

As for me...? I'm leaning toward the former: I don't want Ells to hurt it worse, but if no further structural damage is being risked (as Dr. Gill and Tito insinuated), it's time to put his teammates before his stats. The team needs him, even if he's only 60-80%. But that's just my opinion... feel free to share yours!


[All quotes in this post found on the Boston Globe Online]

State of the Sox: Bridge to Nowhere?

It is May 11. I'm smack in the middle of finals week (hence the long absence - sorry!), but I can't focus on the philosophical leanings of fictional Russians, or make convoluted connections between the GI Bill and John Coltrane. All I can think of is the State of the Sox.

Gone is the wonderful month of April, when all bad performances can be brushed away with the simple phrase, "Relax, it's early." Well, it's no longer early, and the Sox have been at or below .500 for the majority of the season. What gives? Was the "bridge" year that Theo spoke of in the offseason baseball's version of the bridge to nowhere?



At this point in the season, the game-by-game, analyze everything approach taken by fans in the first weeks has mostly dissipated. Not so this year: after the four-game sweep of the Angels, we were playoff material; two games lost to the Yankees later, and we were destined to finish below the lowly Orioles.

So what's the issue? In a word, it's injuries. The Red Sox have played a scant 6 games with their Startin Day outfield, as both Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury have been out for nearly a month with unforeseeable injuries. I mean, come on: cracked ribs, kidney stones, and a sports hernia? Lady Luck is not on our side so far. As for the struggling defense, please leave Bill Hall alone - he was never meant to start in center field, and Adrian Beltre, though error prone thus far, traditionally improves over the course of a season.

The lineup seems to be hitting its stride - thank god for Marco Scutaro's ability to hit leadoff, eh?

And his ability to do awesome things like this...

At this point, the season could go either way... I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox won it all. But I would be equally unsurprised if they missed the playoffs. If you can say anything for this team, it's unique. I'm excited to see how things turn out - they play 162 for a reason.

Phenom in Flux

Jacoby Ellsbury is no longer the young star we saw in the 2007 playoffs, but a twenty-seven-year-old outfielder who has gone through a lot of changes in the last year, the most obvious being a change in position.

However, left field is hardly a new experience for Ells, as he played 80 games there before this season. If anything, he should be flattered to patrol the stomping grounds of Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, and Jim Rice, and by all accounts, he does understand the history of his position.

Ellsbury also elected to trade in his ubiquitous #46 for #2, once Brad Mills took off for the Astros and left his number behind. The shedding of a high number for a low one is another symbol of Ellsbury's growth from a precocious phenom to a solid everyday player.


As you know, I've not always been the biggest Ellsbury fan - the nickname "Golden Boy" that I bestowed upon him was as much a dig as a complement. However, I have always wanted Ells to do well: it doesn't make sense for a fan of the Boston Red Sox to wish ill on any team members. Heading into 2010, Ellsbury has a few things to prove: he needs an OBP closer to .390 than last year's .355 (and he's had some promising patience thus far, albeit sans results), and he needs to be more efficient in using his speed in the outfield. No more talk of what he can become. The man is 27 years old; this season, let's see what he is.

Golden Boy: Fan Frustration

In the past, I've had readers ask me multiple times why I "hated" Jacoby Ellsbury and his fans, and I want to clear the air.

Before I get too far into this, let me say one thing: I think that Jacoby Ellsbury is a fantastically gifted athlete, and I'm very happy that he plays for the Boston Red Sox. That said, I think the level of devotion he is shown by portions of the fan base borders on excessive.


You might now be tempted to reference my obsessive love for a certain second baseman, and I would point to the numbers. Pedey is a superior player (thus far) to Ells, based on nearly every metric except stolen bases; Dustin has ROY and MVP awards, two All-Star selections, and a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger [and yes, I know these honors are relatively subjective].

I think what really gets under people's skin is that I call Ellsbury "Golden Boy," which is sort of a backhanded and sarcastic compliment, and that I refer to some of his fans as "fangirls" and "fanboys." Let me be clear: not all of Ellsbury's fans are what I would term "fangirls/boys," and I know for a fact that there are many of you out there who value him entirely (or at least mostly ;) ) for what he brings to the field.


However, there are far too many Ellsbury fans that value him solely for his looks, and I always seem to run into a large proportion of them [inevitably intoxicated and confused] when I go to Fenway Park. I've heard too much nonsense from people in #46 jerseys [and I take a vindictave pleasure in knowing they'll have to buy new #2 jerseys], including such gems as "Was that a touchdown?" "What quarter is it?" and the best from the shameful list "Is he, like, doing a, what's-it-called, no-hitter?" [The last was in the seventh PERFECT inning of Jon Lester dominance last June... Lester gave up a double on the next batter, and the girl didn't understand why the entire section was glaring at her.]

Last August John Canzano of Oregonlive.com did a feature on the nature of Ellsbury's fans, including the following snippet, which pretty much sums up my feelings on the subject:

Oh, there are Internet Web sites dedicated to Ellsbury's statistics, and his career highlights, and noting him as one of only three Native American players on MLB rosters. But also, there are Web sites frequented by obsessed female fans dedicated to speculation and criticism about who [girlfriend Kelsey] Hawkins is and what she's doing in Ellsbury's life. One site even researched her time in the Boston Marathon, which she ran for charity along with the Red Sox wives, and mocked it.

Wrote one message-board poster named Melanie: "Well, I would just like to say that I'm happy for Jacoby. However, I know deep down inside that he and I are meant to be together, and he'll wait for me until the time is right."

Oh. My. God. As much as I'd like to think that this woman is an aberration, I've seen enough of these sites to understand that though she is not in the majority, she is most definitely part of a strong and vocal minority.

I completely understand that Ellsbury is a good-looking man - it makes perfect sense that he would have admirers, and I further concede that this is not his fault. However, if he has so many fans [all loyal to the point of insanity], he doesn't need me to buy his shirt and be obsessed about him in general. I root for Ellsbury just as hard as I root for every member of the Red Sox, and I'll continue to do so, but if one more person spills their beer on me while craning their neck to catch a glimpse of his butt, I'm going to scream.

And for those of you that think I am judging you: look in the mirror. If you don't act like 'Melanie' up there, and you know what on-base percentage is, I'm definitely not belittling you; in fact, I applaud your ability to put up with the shenanigans around your favorite player. Just because you are an Ellsbury FAN does not make you a "fangirl/fanboy."

He's nothing like that OTHER 23...

I think he'll fit in just fine here in New England. Just the fact that he - a veteran player, no less - stopped to chat with the fans speaks volumes about his ability to embrace the environment in Boston.

Just from that short clip, it's easy to see that Mike Cameron has at least a basic grasp of the history of the franchise: I mean, he understood that #24 was "semi-retired," not just because of the petulant Manny Being Manny Ramirez, but because of the inimitable Dwight "Dewey" Evans, who played his last game in 1991.

He also appreciated Francona's quip about a certain shortstop that John Henry is still paying:


"Tito told me, 'Hey, if you wear twenty-three, make sure you don't miss the first ball, cause the fans are all gonna say LUUUU-GOOOOO!!!'"

Be honest, folks: that's totally something we would do. However, it doesn't look like it will be necessary, as Cameron seems like the type of confident (and competent), yet easy-going player who thrives in Boston. I know that the Ellsbury fangirls (and fanboys) are howling that Golden Boy is moving over to accommodate a thirty-seven year old journeyman. Please, let him show you what he can do. Personally, I plan on loving him, and I hope you'll all give him a chance, too.

Everything you own in a box to the left...

According to the Providence Journal, Jacoby Ellsbury has been relegated to playing left field for the near future. Mike Cameron has almost exclusively been manning center field for his entire fifteen-year career, and he's good at it.

As quick as Ellsbury is - and we've all seen that speed in action, ahem, Andy Pettitte -


Cameron is the better defender, at least according to metrics such as UZR and WAR. Though Ellsbury's quickness is undeniable, he tends to take a roundabout route to balls hit in his area, resulting in the inefficient use of his blazing speed.

Understandably, Golden Boy was a bit upset when Tito called to break the news:

"He was worried that it was a demotion, which it is not," explained Francona. "I kind of insured him of that. I just think we're tying to put guys where we think they can make the biggest impression. Cam was great, for a guy who is 37-years-old and played center field his whole life, he said, 'Hey, I'll play anywhere.' So it was just a decision based on what's best for our team." - projo.com

Ells has played left field as recently as 2008, when he was platooning with Coco Crisp (remember him?), and he performed very well. While Jacoby doesn't have a cannon for an arm, he's no Johnny Damon, either, so I don't see this arrangement becoming a problem, though it does leave Jeremy Hermida out in the cold.

Ellsbury is too young to play the scorned lover card and pout - the man's still making the league minimum - and I'm sure he's too proud for that, anyway. As things stand, I like the Red Sox outfield. A lot.

Sayonara, Fangirls?

There's been a lot of talk lately about what it would take to pry Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego, and because new GM Jed Hoyer's knowledge of the Red Sox farm system rivals that of Theo himself, it's going to be a lot. There will be no Heathcliff Slocumb for Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek type of deal this time around: we will have to give up some truly valuable pieces to get one in return.

What type of valuable pieces, you ask? That's exactly the point of this post: we've all gotten used to hearing Clay Buchholz's name thrown out there, and though he's had some success on the major league level, the Sox are pitching rich (for now), so most fans are willing to part with him for the right piece. Now we're hearing whispers that a player we've been seeing daily for over a year might be part of the package... and not just any player, but the downright dreamiest man to don a Red Sox uniform since... well, at least since his devoted screaming fangirls (and fanguys - we don't discriminate here at Off the Monster) jumped on the bandwagon in 2004.

Personally, I wouldn't be all that torn up if Ellsbury got shipped off to San Diego. This might be unfair of me, but I just cannot stand a large percentage of fans who name him as their favorite player. Sure, there are those who rattle off his SB% (MUCH more important than the number of stolen bases, if you ask me), rising OPS, and improved plate discipline (he took eight more walks this year than in 2008!), and are legitimately excited about him as an athlete. I despise the term "Pink-Hatter," because I find it derogatory to female fans (maybe they just like the color!), but Ellsbury fangirls generally display the type of behavior expected of a stereotypical "Pink-Hatter," namely, a lack of knowledge about the game in general or the Red Sox in particular.

Are these women at a Beatles concert or a baseball game? CALM DOWN.

Do I think Adrian Gonzalez is worth a package including Buchholz, Ellsbury, Kelly, and Lars Anderson? Yes. In an instant. Prospects are exactly what their title implies: chances, opportunities, potential. You never know if a minor-league stud will pan out, and Gonzalez is as close to a sure thing as you can get in the current market.

I'll admit to having a personal agenda for supporting Golden Boy's inclusion in a deal: if it allows me to interact with just one less drunken fangirl per Fenway visit, I'll support it, but I also truly believe Gonzalez is worth the trade. The dynamic is very interesting, because we all know that Theo likes to trade high on his prospects, getting more in return than he is giving up, but in this case, the other side knows exactly everything he does.

Honesty's uncomfortable, eh Theo?

This is probably a deal that will happen (if it does) once the Padres inevitably start to falter. It would take major, um, guts, for a new GM such as Hoyer to trade a franchise player in his first months on the job. Hoyer is in the uncommon position of knowing Theo's thoughts and motives while negotiating, which is intriguing, to say the least. Get it done, Theo.... please?

Welcoming Another #23

Mike Cameron got up on the podium with Theo today and tried on his Red Sox jersey for the very first time. The number on the back? Good old #23.


Yes, 23... the number worn by three Red Sox players last season alone. Of course, Julio Lugo had worn the number since he joined the team in 2007 (Alex Cora generously switched to 13 so Lugo could have his preferred number), and when he was shipped to St. Louis, Adam LaRoche donned the uniform. (What? You don't remember LaRoche? He was with Boston for exactly six games, and by a weird stroke of chance, I was at Fenway for his one and only home run with the team, against Baltimore on July 25th.) LaRoche got flipped to Atlanta shortly thereafter, and speedster Joey Gathwright ended the season in jersey #23.

Let's hope that Cameron has more sucess and/or staying power than the last three guys to wear the number. According to Boston.com, Cameron has not played a corner outfield position since "his collision with Carlos Beltran in 2005," but has indicated his willingness to play in front of the Green Monster.

As we all know, Jacoby Ellsbury is able to play all three outfield positions without issues, which we saw in 2008 when he was platooning with Coco Crisp, but it makes sense that coaches would want to sit down with the two of them to discuss how best to work things out. This also begs the question: what about Jeremy Hermida? Perhaps given Cameron's age (37 next month), and JD Drew's injury history, Hermida will be a bench guy, though he seems to need more everyday seasoning to realize his potential, so he could also be used as trade bait.

All in all, I like the Cameron signing, even though it's looking more and more like Jason Bay will be playing in Queens, or, at the very least, not in Boston. Somehow, we need to get some of that power back, and Theo has apparently (again, according to Boston.com) been dropping hints that it's "easier to obtain a bat than a pitcher during the season, so that could be an indication that he's willing to wait to make another significant move."

Here's hoping that "significant move" comes in the way of Adrian Gonzalez, and that it happens well before the trade deadline. Perhaps Theo wants to wait and see how the John Lackey signing pans out before dealing Clay Buchholz, or Jed Hoyer wants reassurance that Clay can continue his run of success at the major league level (7-4, 4.21 ERA in the latter half of 2009) before trading a franchise player away for him?

Either way, all of this Hot Stove Action has not been conducive to my studying (it's finals week), but I'm still a fan of it. Check back later today or tomorrow for an entry on John Lackey, while I don't study enough for my American Presidency exam (sorry, Professor).

Golden Boy: Take Two

It's official: Jacoby Ellsbury has dropped number 46 in favor of the much lower (and more aesthetically pleasing) number 2. When Brad Mills jumped ship for Houston, Jacoby wasted no time in snapping up his number. Normally this wouldn't be huge news (in early 2007, Dustin Pedroia swapped #64 for #15), but I take vindictive pleasure in the fact that all the Golden Boy worshipers will have to buy new T-shirts.