Optimism rewarded!

Due to a series of unexpected events, I was able to catch the last four innings of today's game - I had thought I was going to miss the whole thing.  So after running back to my room after an ESPN info session at Career Services, I immediately turned on the TV and was pleased to see that the Sox were leading 4-1 in the sixth inning.

I did pretty well with my morning predictions: Beckett went out there and pitched his heart out, going eight innings (and it would have been nine if the Sox half of the eighth hadn't been so explosive) giving up a single run on one hit and one walk.

The lineup certainly rose to the occasion, as everyone but Cody Ross had at least one hit - and Ross had a sacrifice fly for an RBI. Kevin Youkilis in particular had a great day, going 2-for-4 with 3 RBIs, while Adrian Gonzalez continued his early success with a 3-for-5 day and an RBI.  Sadly, my only incorrect prediction was about Pedey: he didn't manage to hit a home run today, but he did beat out an infield hit once I started watching.

The funniest moment of the day had to be Kelly Shoppach's first career stolen base (above) which included a failed slide and then a flop.  I wondered at Shoppach's presence over Salty when I saw the lineup this morning, but obviously Bobby V. knew what he was doing when he put the lineup card together.

It wasn't all sunshine and rainbows today, as Jacoby Ellsbury left the game with a shoulder injury after going 2-for-3 with an RBI to start the game. Here's hoping Golden Boy makes a quick and full recovery.

When we know more about the extent of Ellsbury's injury, I'll post an update here - after his killer season last year, the Red Sox cannot afford to lose Ells long term.

Opening Day optimism

I'm guessing that most of you, like me, are on the redsox.com mailing list, and you also woke up to the above picture in your email.  It's a beautiful photo (and really just makes me want to sneak into Fenway in the early morning with a camera) to start off Opening Day - here's hoping at that time tomorrow the Sox will have kicked off a winning streak.

By chance, I was at the final home game of last season, and like most of September, the day ended in a loss (to the Orioles, no less).  At the time, I wasn't too worried, since there six games still to play and I figured they would clinch soon enough. I won't rehash it now, on the morning of a fresh start, but you all know how that worked out.

I know that there are mixed feelings about the movie Fever Pitch, but there's one scene from it in particular that encompasses how I feel today (and on all Home Openers): the main character's season tickets have arrived, and after he's embraced the delivery guy, he and his friends open the box, touching and smelling and caressing the tickets.  "A new season," says one of them with awe, "a clean slate." The main character smells his sheet of tickets and declares that "this smells like the year."

From all the way in Connecticut, this smells like the year. Soon enough we'll have forgotten this 1-5 start, the bullpen will shake out the kinks, and the field players will find their groove.  Opening Day is about unbridled optimism, and since I won't be able to watch this year (I have to commentate Trinity baseball this afternoon), I'm broadcasting my good feelings now.

I'm predicting Josh Beckett will go out there looking to prove himself after an abysmal start last week in Detroit, and pitch deep into the game.  The lineup will rise to the occasion of performing in front of the Fenway crowd, and those who have been struggling (I'm looking at you Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis) will get in in gear.

Sox take Opening Day, and for my final prediction, Dustin Pedroia goes yard - because that's just what he does on Opening Day.

Red Sox or rednecks?

As a native New Hampshirite, I'm well acquainted with what some people might call rednecks. The kind of people who not only like to hunt, they live to tell the tale of the one that got away.  Normally, these types of people are not millionaires, but in recent years the Red Sox have boasted more than a few legitmate rednecks as part of their roster.

First, there's the photographic evidence:

And then we have the terrifying stories, like this one about JD Drew from last Spring Training (courtesy of Boston.com's Extra Bases blog):

Drew said he was in a boat with his son once when they hooked an alligator with a fishing lure. He had his son hold the pole and took position to try and leap on the alligator.

"I figured I could get him myself," he said. "He was about five or six feet."

"With your bare hands?" I asked.

J.D. gave me his best "no, you stupid city boy" look.

"I had a knife," he said.

But the line snapped and the gator got away. J.D. missed his chance.

So next time you read about J.D. missing a game with a bad hamstring and consider complaining, consider that this is a guy who was willing to jump out of a perfectly good boat and attack a man-sized alligator with a knife. 

And now we have an anecdote about panthers, courtesy of Clay Buchholz (and Boston.com's Extra Bases blog):

A Fort Myers resident told me that the woods beyond the practice fields are known to have panthers and wild hogs.

According to Clay Buchholz, who knows of such things, panthers can be five or six feet long. "I'd want to shoot it before it could hunt me," Buchholz said.

New Hampshire would be proud to have them.

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Rotation

I've waited long enough to see if we'll be getting any new and exciting pitching additions - Spring Training is fast approaching (and Lester is already in camp!), so it's high time to finish out the 2012 projections.

LHP Jon Lester:
2011 projection: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA, 82 BB, 193 SO
2011: 15-9, 31 starts, 191.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 75 BB, 182 SO
2012 projection: 15-9, 31 starts, 192 IP, 3.61 ERA, 74 BB, 180 SO
I thought James was being too pessimistic about Lester in his projection for 2011, and he turned out to be pretty much right on the nose.  Hopefully Lester can top this, but these numbers certainly aren't anything to scoff at.

RHP Josh Beckett:
2011 projection: 10-9, 26 starts, 168 IP, 3.86 ERA, 49 BB, 155 SO
2011: 13-7, 30 starts, 193 IP, 2.89 ERA, 52 BB, 175 SO
2012 projection: 12-9, 29 starts, 186 IP, 3.63 ERA, 53 BB, 169 SO
James underestimated Beckett last year, and I think there's a good chance he's done so again. Beckett came into camp last year with something to prove after his injury-marred 2010, and this year he'll have a chip on his shoulder about the way last year ended.


RHP Clay Buchholz:
2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO
2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO
2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO
A lot of things went wrong in 2011, but losing Buchholz for the entire second half should not be overlooked: a healthy Clay and we probably would have been playing in October. That said, Buchholz has the Sox counting on him to be healthy, and he'll want to show that they were right to trust him - I think James is spot on.

Now comes the guesswork: will Alfredo Aceves be starting in 2012? How about Daniel Bard, who has also expressed interest? Will Tim Wakefield get invited to camp, or will we finally be saying goodbye? For the purposes of this post, I'll only be doing the projections for players James projected assuming they were starters (this means Aceves and Bard will be in the bullpen post - even if Valentine has them in the rotation).

RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka:
2011 projection: 10-9, 27 starts, 173 IP, 3.85 ERA, 73 BB, 158 SO
2011: 3-3, 7 starts, 37.1 IP, 5.30 ERA, 23 BB, 26 SO
2012 projection: 4-4, 12 starts, 74 IP, 4.14 ERA, 37 BB, 66 SO
If you're like me, when Matsuzaka underwent Tommy John surgery last June, you were probably thinking "good riddance." I'd had enough of Matsuzaka, who has never been the pitcher for the Sox that he seems to be in Japan.  But on the bright side, he can't get much worse, and maybe after TJ he'll be better for his presumptive midseason return.

LHP Andrew Miller:
2011 projection: 3-5, 14 starts, 65 IP, 5.68 ERA, 43 BB, 54 SO
2011: 6-3, 12 starts, 65 IP, 5.54 ERA, 41 BB, 50 SO
2012 projection: 3-5, 12 starts, 70 IP, 5.40 ERA, 47 BB, 58 SO
Obviously James isn't expecting Miller to start too much this year - and with those projected numbers, hopefully he won't.


RHP Tim Wakefield:
2011 projection: 6-6, 14 starts, 115 IP, 4.07 ERA, 37 BB, 72 SO
2011: 7-8, 23 starts, 154 IP, 5.12 ERA, 47 BB, 93 SO
2012 projection: 4-4, 12 starts, 80 IP, 4.16 ERA, 24 BB, 48 SO
Obviously, Wake's not even signed right now, and it would be putting Valentine in a rough position if they invited the 45-year-old knuckleballer to Spring Training. But for some reason, James thinks Wakefield's ERA will fall by nearly a run, but that he'll throw barely half the innings he did last year. We'll see.

After the top three (37- 27 combined), the dropoff is pretty steep. Though I wasn't sad to see the back of John Lackey for Tommy John surgery of his own, his absence really exposes how shallow this rotation is. Hopefully Cherington can pull something out of thin air.  In-house possibilities include Junichi Tazawa, Stolmy Pimentel (though he's just 22 and needs some more seasoning), Felix Doubront, Aceves, and Bard (though the latter two would leave GAPING holes in the bullpen). None of these players were included in James' 2012 Handbook as starters, so their numbers aren't in this post.

"Where has all the bitterness gone?"

I'm watching Baseball Tonight on ESPN, and one of their commentators wondered what had happened to the days when every Red Sox-Yankees series was fraught with animosity, and not just in the stands.  What happened to the brawls between Fiske and Munson, or Tek and A*Rod, or even Pedro and Don Zimmer?

Parity happened.  In the last 11 years, the Red Sox and Yankees both have two Championships each, and they've been relatively evenly matched.  Right now, for instance, the two teams have identical records in the AL East, and they're tied for first.  Only one of these teams will leave Fenway tonight with first place, and the best record in the American League.

Just seven years ago, a series like this would be overshadowed by the constant threat of beanings, brawls, and general enmity.  Now? Well, I'm sure you've seen Nick Swisher showering praise on Josh Beckett, and David Ortiz unabashedly bestowing hugs upon pinstriped rivals during batting practice.

Even among fans, some of the hatred has abated.  There are certainly Yankees fans that I avoid like the plague, but for the most part, I can respect their devotion and knowledge, just like I would with any other sports fan (however, anyone who chants "1918!" or utters the number "27" isn't worth the time. Let's talk about contemporary history. Kthanks).

So is this better?  It's less nerve-wracking, to be sure, but the lack of open hostility makes things just a little bit less exciting.  While it's good to be able to be confident that Jeter won't throw a sucker punch  a Gonzo when the latter rounds the bases, the games are certainly less of an event than they once were.

That said, I would NEVER want to go back to the way things were, because the animosity was so intense because the Red Sox (and we as fans) had a monkey on their backs, and we were reminded of it every time the two teams met.  Back then, we were still eighty-six-year losers, perpetually looking up at New York in the standings.

Now things are much more even, and if the price of that is that the edge comes off of the bitterness and rivalry a bit, I'll certainly take the tradeoff.  I'm calling for a Sox win tonight, on the back of one Joshua Patrick Beckett - he's given us no reason to doubt him, and I don't plan to start now.

(Not so) Bold Predictions

Erik Bedard's first attempt at a win in a Red Sox uniform was thwarted yesterday by his own bullpen and former Sox pitcher Justin Masterson.  The game wasn't pretty if you were rooting for the local nine, especially since it means we're in a tie for first with the Yankees, who are (conveniently) at Fenway RIGHT NOW for a three game set.

This man is pitching tonight - I think he can take them.

I'm going to go on record here and predict that the Sox take two out of three, with the Bronx Bombers taking the middle game (CC Sabathia over John Lackey).  Jonny "K" Lester should have no problems taking care of Bartolo Colon (remember that time he swung the bat so violently he was on the DL for the rest of the season, and then didn't want to come out 'pen so he ran home early? Good times.). 

Sabathia is likely to be his brilliant self, and since I've learned to not expect much from Lackey, I'll concede that game (CC is on my fantasy team, so at least there's that).  I'm counting on Josh Beckett to take his recent excellence to the mound to take on Freddy Garcia - no slouch himself at 10-7.

If the Sox can take two of three, it puts them one game ahead of New York in the East - and every game counts.

Jason Varitek Celebrity Putt Putt

As any of you who follow me on Twitter know, my friend Soni and I attended Jason Varitek's Celebrity Putt Putt on Thursday evening.  Why am I just posting about this now? MY COMPUTER IS FINALLY FIXED [also, I love Apple for extending my warranty for no extra charge!].  So I hope to close out July with a lot more entries to make up for the terrible job I've been doing so far this summer.  So, without any further ado, I present a flurry of photos from the event, with a little bit of commentary:

  

The entire event was awesome - I only wish more players had come.  Those in attendance included Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jed Lowrie, John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield, and, of course, Varitek himself.  Tek and Salty each signed two baseballs for me (well, one was for my brother-in-law).  Autograph seekers were aided and abetted by none other than Tek's fiance, Catherine Panagiotopoulos (bet she can't wait to change that name).

I really can't say enough nice things about Catherine: she was beyond friendly to everyone crowded around, and even carted armfuls of baseballs, photos, and memorabilia from the fans to Varitek, making it her personal mission to assure that everyone who wanted an autograph received one. (She's pictured above, signing a T-shirt for a staff member, and golfing.)

Overall, I would call the event a HUGE success - Soni and I certainly had a wonderful time - and it was extremely affordable, as Sox charity events go, at just $50 per person.  Proceeds from the event went to Journey Forward, an organization looking to improve the lives of people who have suffered spinal cord injuries through participation in sports. 

I'll close this post with a sentiment from Thursday night, which I stand by still, even three days later:

And he thanked me.

Terry Francona: Maverick

The current mid-week series in Philly is being billed by many of the talking heads in the sports business as a Fall Classic preview.  The Sox and the Phils are the toast of the bigs, despite the fact that Boston is a game and a half behind New York in the standings right now.

Tonight pitted Josh Beckett against Cliff Lee.  Though Cliff claimed the "W," I won't hold a grudge because I still worship the ground mound he walks on for spurning the advances of the Evil Empire during the offseason.  He's an honorary favorite for life, though that might change if we actually end up meeting him in October.

Despite the fact that I generally approve of Cliff Lee (and Philadelphia generally) I was very happy when Lee gacve up his first hit to the Red Sox, a single to Marco Scutaro in the sixth inning.  The only other Sox hit of the night was clubbed by Darnell McDonald, who doubled to lead off the top of the eighth inning.

We have John Lackey going for us tomorrow, and the big righty has been a bit of a mystery this season.  Personally, I'm inclined to cut him rather more slack than I normally would, because his wife Krista has been undergoing treatment for breast cancer, and I know how draining, distressing, and rattling it can be to watch a family member fight that battle.

Tito (a better maverick than John McCain ever was), has been hinting that he will combat the uncertainty of Lackey on the bump by putting David Ortiz in the lineup.  As all of you know, playing in Philly means Papi will have to play first base... thus sliding Adrian Gonzalez to right field. Yes, right field.

I could give you my perspective on this plan, but, as always, Dustin Pedroia's take is much more entertaining, so I'll leave it with this sentiment from my favorite second-baseman: "It'll be good offensively, but damn, I've gotta play second, first and right. That's a lot of ground to cover, man. I've got small legs."

The least appreciated one-hitter in Boston history...

(BAMF)

I'm sure many of you, like me, are currently watching the Bruins go for a Game 7 win, and have been since the B's started playing in about the 4th inning.  It's too bad, because Josh Beckett just tossed an absolutely dominating game down in Tampa Bay.

The big righty went the distance, giving up just one hit to Reid Brignac, walking none, and notching six strikeouts.  As good as James Shields was yesterday, Beckett was better tonight.  Obviously, Beckett won't care that he had fewer spectators than normal, and I don't think any of the Red Sox would hold a grudge because their fans decided to watch a Game 7.

But if you're sad you missed the badassery (and I know I am), NESN airs Sox in 2 at midnight.  I might just stay up to watch it.

Winning: The Ultimate Revenge

Okay, I'll admit it: like many of you, I'm sure, I went to bed before the Red Sox were done with their game last night.  After a 3 1/2 hour rain delay, the game finally got started when it should have been ending, and I only made it through six innings before my eyes started drooping and I went to sleep. 

Sadly, I surrendered just one inning too early.  When I left at the end of six, the Sox were trailing 0-2, and by the end of the seventh, they had exploded for eight hits and seven runs in the seventh inning.  David Ortiz had a single and an RBI double, notching his own personal payback for being beaned by CC Sabathia earlier in the game.

 
Ortiz didn't blame Sabathia for the HBP, which isn't terribly surprising considering the two are friendly.  What is interesting is that Papi blamed the media for getting plunked.  Until last night, Ortiz had made it 160 games against the Bronx Bombers without getting hit by a pitch, and that fact was well publicized. 

To be perfectly honest, after Beckett hit Captain Jetes and A*Rod early on, I fully expected Youk to bear the brunt of Yankee payback - he's traditionally been their favorite target.  [However, I guess I shouldn't be surprised since Joba Chamberlain, Youk's usual tormenter, is on the DL.]  It was pretty obvious that both of Beckett's HBP were accidental, and he made sure to speak to Umpire Hunter Wendelstedt and make sure he would still be able to pitch inside.

On the other hand, despite the fact that Sabathia claimed the ball simply "got away" from him, his control had been pinpoint until that moment;  it was payback, plain and simple.  I'm okay with it, though... the Red Sox got the last word, pulling 2 games ahead of the Yankees in the division, and gaining a commanding 8-1 lead in the season series.

Something's gotta give. Right?

Okay.  Enough is enough. The Red Sox may be a better team than they've been showing, but until they start putting their proverbial money where their mouths are, I'm done predicting their success.  The raw talent is obviously there, but something is clearly not clicking.  Can they do better than this? Certainly.  WILL they do better than this? I'm no longer so sure.

After tonight's travesty of a game the Sox fall to 1-7 against he Orioles, Mariners, and Indians.  This is unacceptable, especially in a division like the AL East.  to get to the playoffs the Red Sox must win about 95 games, and the easiest way to do that is to win series against mediocre teams like, I don't know, the Orioles, Mariners, and Indians.  If you can't even beat the Indians, how do you expect to beat the Rangers? The Rays? The YANKEES?

Again, this is clearly not a question of talent. The talent is there.  It's at every position, and in most cases that talent is backed up by awards like Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, All Star selections, and MVP votes.  But something isn't clicking. The Red Sox hitters left runners in scoring position tonight like it was going out of style (let's hope that's the case), and it's old news at this point.

During the first skid of the season, Dustin Pedroia called out the Sox pitchers for not living up to their potential.  He had a point, and now the tables are turned, so which Sox hurler has the gall to make a statement? My vote is on Josh Beckett - he's never been one to keep quiet about his feelings, and if the lineup wastes a good start of his like they did Lackey's tonight, heads might roll.

Either the Red Sox step up, starting immediately, or this season starts to slip out of reach. It's hard to dig yourself out of a hole like this one when you can't even beat the perennial cellar-dwellers of the American League.  Something's gotta give. Let's hope it gives soon.

The Red Sox are turning things around...

Buenos noches, amigos!  No, that's not my Jerry Remy impersonation - this blog post is coming to you from Argentina - my homestay in Buenos Aires requires that I speak exclusively Spanish, so I thought I would practice on you.

But enough about me [though I'm happy to share travel stories via Twitter, Facebook, or email if any of you are curious] - this is a Red Sox blog.  Since I was last able to post, the Red Sox have won three straight, and actually look as though they WANT to win.  So what's been the difference?  What's making everything click?

1. The renaissance of Joshua Patrick Beckett.  Coming into 2011, countless journalists, bloggers, and sportscasters (including yours truly) predcited that Beckett would be the key to the season.  If we could get the vintage Beckett circa 2007 it would mean big things, but if we got the Beckett of 2008 and 2009 it would be a long haul.  Of course, there's a lot of games left to play, but Beckett's last two starts have been downright dominating.

2. The continuation of the Daisuke Matsuzaka roller coaster.  Two starts ago Matsuzaka gave up an ungodly amount of runs, and it was the last straw for a number of commentators.  There was more than one piece online calling for Matsuzaka to be traded, even if the owners need to eat a ton of money and get only middling prospects in return.  In his last start, Daisuke was brilliant - and in the Patriots' Day spotlight, no less.  Now, if only we could be somehwta sure he could show us that level of expertise on a semi-regular basis... dare to dream.

3. Jed Lowrie is an absolute BEAST.  The man is totally raking this season, and it shouldn't come as a shock to anyone.  It's easy to forget the trials of Jed Lowrie in the exciting acquisitions that came this past offseason, but the 27-year-old was a highly regarded prospect (and a former 1st round pick) for a number of years.  Then, of course, the plague struck: first it was the wrist injury, which then recurred.  Last year, the poor man was struck down by mono, and out until the end of the summer.  Now he's looking to make up for lost time... I for one have capitalized on his ambition by adding him to my fantasy roster.

Of course, there are other reasons as well - some of this is simple dumb luck, and some of it is the fact that things seem to finally be clicking.  I'm not going to analyze this any more now - the Sox are playing and I can ATUALLY WATCH THEM, so I'm going to do that - but updates should be more frequent now that I have reliable internet at my homestay.  Adios!

Off day thoughts...

Since I've last blogged, a lot has gone down in Red Sox Nation, most of it bad (I'm sorry for neglecting my duties here, but I'm on Spring Break on a beach in Africa, and internet is hard to come by). The Sox have yet to win their third game, and they currently have the worst record in baseball.  I know we all keep saying that they're too good for this, that something's gotta give eventually... but when is "eventually"? And how do we get it to come faster?

Sadly, I don't have any answers for you (other than this fantastic list of suggestions compiled by Peter Abraham over at the Boston Globe), but at this point we have no other recourse but to keep believing in this team.  We know they're better than this. THEY know they're better than this.

What needs to happen immediately, though, is for everyone to start hitting.  Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez, JD Drew, David Ortiz, and, strangely enough, Jed Lowrie, are all hitting at an acceptable clip (Lowrie is leading the team at .438 in 7 games).  As for the other members of the team? They need to get their act together - soon, and preferably with runners in scoring position.

Champion.

The pitching rotation can take a lesson from Mr. Joshua Patrick Beckett on how to be a badass who beats CC Sabathia by stymieing a Yankees lineup that might be aging but is still formidable.  Jon Lester did a passable job the other night, holding the Rays to just three runs, but if the bats aren't going to get it done, three runs is too many.  Perhaps a rainout and day off will get things back in order: John Lackey will be skipped this time through the rotation, so he has extra time to get his act together while the other hurlers stay (mostly) on schedule.

They will snap out of this skid. They HAVE to snap out of this skid.  If it were possible to will a team to victory, Boston's devoted fans would make sure the Red Sox never lost a game, but we live in the real world.  The games have to be played, and the players have to prove themselves.  We're 4.5 games out of first with 151 left to play. I'd day it's definitely doable.

The Adventures of Josh 'n' Jon: Opening Day Starter Edition

In the least shocking news since the third reelection of FDR, Jon Lester has officially been named the Opening Day starter for the Boston Red Sox. As Manager Terry Francona said, after the first game, the rotation order is sort of a non-issue until the playoffs, but I'm sure it's nice for Lester to get that recognition.

In case you were concerned about 2009 and 2010 Opening Day starter Josh Beckett getting jealous, there's no need to fret; the big Texan is here to assure you that there are absolutely no hard feelings: "It's a really big honor and he should be proud of it. It's something he has earned."

How much of this is genuine, and how much is just for the press/team unity/warm fuzzies? It's difficult to say. Beckett has never been one to censor his feelings about his own performances, or even to hide his disdain when reporters ask him redundant questions. There's no doubt that he was extremely disappointed by his injury-marred 2010, and it's probably true that he believes Lester deserves it more this year.

However, that's not to say that the righthander isn't a little jealous, or even a bit bitter. Just a few years ago, Beckett was the young phenom who made fans excited with every pitch. He was a World Series Champion at a young age, just like Lester, with the added exhilaration of being a leader on a young and talented team, and then being a centerpiece of the trade that sent Hanley Ramirez to Florida.

Now, despite the shiny new contract extension Beckett inked last year, he's all but forgotten. All the press about Boston's rotation is the 1-2 punch of young guns Lester and Clay Buchholz, or the well-documented struggles of the enigmatic Daisuke Matsuzaka. I'm quite certain Josh is absolutely aching to be the big-game pitcher he was only a few years ago, with all the respect and accolades that comes with that.

I don't see this causing any discord in the clubhouse. For one, I really don't imagine Lester and Beckett to be the kinds of people who sit around and talk about their feelings - they strike me as more of the "act first, question later" types. Mostly, both pitchers (along with the rest of the staff) are too professional to let something like this affect their performance - but here's hoping Beckett uses it as motivation to return to the form he had just a few years back.

* * *

For those of you interested in my travels, I am currently in Dakar, Senegal. There's a lot of random MLB gear around here, and sadly, much of it says "NEW YORK" on it - and it's not usually the National League team, either. So far, I've seen jerseys and/or hats for the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Rangers, and Nationals (who knows?), as well as quite a few Celtics and Lakers jerseys. I'm having a great time so far, and trying to spread Red Sox Nation across the globe.

10 minute musings [Live from Delhi!]

A free morning for me = a blog update for you:


1. Indian cricket fans are just as crazy as Red Sox Nation. I know I said in the last post that the match I went to was poorly attended - and it was. However, it was the West Indies playing the Netherlands, in Delhi, so it wasn't surprising that there weren't too many Dutch or West Indian fans in attendance... it's sort of a long trip from Europe or the Caribbean. There were lots of India fans there, chanting "IN-DIA! IN-DIA!" and it sort of reminded me of Red Sox fans chanting "Yankees suck!" while we're playing the Blue Jays.

2. I'm very heartened by David Ortiz's spring thus far. I know it's silly to count spring performances as indicators of what's to come, since many players have torn up Spring Training only to flop over the course of the season, and vice versa. But it still seems like a good sign that he's swinging the bat well, especially given how lost he looked in the opening months of 2009 and 2010. Here's hoping we skip the struggle this year - though if Papi falters, we have a few more big bats to fall back on.

3. Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez seem to be adjusting well. Though it's possible that Crawford is still creeped out by the whole private investigator/due diligence/much ado about nothing fiasco of a few weeks back, he seems to be at home with the rest of his teammates thus far. Quick to assure the media that no, he and Jacoby Ellsbury are NOT in competition, that they'll be great TOGETHER, Crawford is a team player (who wouldn't bet against himself in a footrace). Gonzalez is ahead of his schedule for recovery after last season's shoulder surgery, but in his case I think no news is good news... I can't wait to see them both in a game.

4. The Lester-Buchholz show is back - hopefully with some more reinforcements. Jon Lester is giving a strong showing so far this spring, and Clay Buchholz is determined to replicate (or surpass) his last season's results. Besides the little hiccup when Josh Beckett got nailed in the head shagging fly balls, the pitching staff looks to be gearing up for a strong season. They have a lot to prove after last year's poor performances - and they know it. Here's hoping they're up to the challenge.

5. I very much admire Jed Lowrie. This is a bit off-topic, since it's hardly baseball-related, but Lowrie is doggedly completing the last few requirements for his degree in political science from Stanford. Lowrie left in 2005 to play baseball, and though it would be easy to decide that he could go back when his playing career is over, he's opting to get it done now, even as he's fighting for playing time in a camp full of All-Stars. Full disclosure: one of my majors is poli-sci, so I have a soft spot for fellow students of politics.

6. I don't buy the whole "Yankees are the underdogs" thing. No, the Yankees did not have the high-profile acquisitions that the Sox did this offseason, but they are NEVER the underdogs. All you need to do is read their lineup to understand that, and though they are most definitely getting old, they are also a roster full of superstars. Add to that the ever-present potential for Brian Cashman to go out and make a big splash with Yankee dollars and prospects, and I'll most definitely be keeping an eye on the Bronx Bombers this season (hopefully in the rear-view mirror).

7. The kids are alright. Okay, so I didn't much like that movie, but the Sox prospects are performing well this spring. Though Lars Anderson is most likely trade bait, and Felix Doubront is destined for the bullpen for the time being, I'm always excited to see some young kids do well. Jose Iglesias is making me long for 2012 despite the enormous potential for this season's squad. According to more than a few people, he has the potential to be a star AND the solution to the revolving door at shortstop.

8. I'm [more than] slightly concerned about Daisuke Matsuzaka. Hardly groundbreaking news, but Matsuzaka's spring has been less than inspiring, and he's as much of an enigma as ever. Luckily, no one is counting on him to be anything more than a serviceable fifth starter - hopefully he can live up to that, at least.

9. No news is good news on Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis. I was always a believer in the Sox last season, but when Pedey and Youk were officially down for the count I started to lose hope. Both are back for 2011 with no limitations, and we haven't heard much from them, which to me must mean that they are going to be A-OK - hopefully that's the case.

10. I'm both excited for and dreading April 1st. I'm going to be in Dakar, Senegal when the Red Sox open up their season against the Texas Rangers, and internet there is a great unknown. If I have a fast, reliable connection (and time - unlikely, but I'll try to make some) I'm going to buy MLB.tv and try to watch as many games as possible. If not, I'll be reliant on sporadic emails and access to internet cafes. Here's hoping it's the former!

[All factual info in this post was gathered from boston.com - fantastic coverge, especially for a baseball-starved student stranded in Delhi, India.]

Josh Beckett is the key to 2011

I'm finally home for break, and I have to say that the thing I consistently look forward to about getting out of Hartford is renewed access to MLB Network. I've been watching it whenever I can commandeer the remote (pretty easy to do now that my older sister has her own house), and last night on Hot Stove, the analysts were asked to rank their top five teams of 2011, as they were constructed at airtime. That means no assuming the Yankees will flex their financial muscle, and no calculating the Rangers chances if Vlad Guerrero is back - the analysts agreed that both scenarios are all but certain.

However, of the three personalities asked to rank their five, all three had the Red Sox as the best American League team (one ranked the Sox first overall, with the Phillies second, while the other two ranked Philly first and Boston second). It's easy to understand Philadelphia's appeal: they have four legitimate aces in their rotation. Boston, on the other hand, has made a few MAJOR moves to add to an already formidable roster.

However, all three analysts - and the host - agreed that there was one thing that the Red Sox absolutely needed if they wanted to live up to their potential, and that was a rebounding Josh Beckett.

I'll spare you the ugly details, but if you're any kind of red Sox fan, you already know how bad Beckett's 2010 went: when he wasn't on the disabled list, he was floundering horribly. This was even more disappointing than it would normally be, because the fiery Texan had signed a very lucrative extension in the spring, and then immediately went out and sucked all season.

Next year, Bill James expects Beckett to make 26 starts (just five more than last year), with a 10-9 record and a 3.86 ERA. No offense to James or Becks, but we need better than that, and I think we can reasonably expect better. First of all, wins are dependent on the team's offense at least as much as they are dependent on the actual pitching performance, and the 2011 Red Sox should be an offensive force.

Also, Josh Beckett is a very proud man. I'm certain that he's all but ashamed of his fail-tastic performance last year, and he's apt to come out swinging.

If Josh can figure out his life and make this work, 2011 should be one for the ages.

2011 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Rotation

Yesterday we established that the 2010 version of the Red Sox performed at a poorer than expected level because of pitching, and not (exclusively) injuries. This was particularly surprising because the rotation was the one thing we all figured we wouldn't have to worry about: Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, and Matsuzaka - and we even had Wakefield, who, despite his age and lack of consistency, is a hell of a sixth man.

However, there were injuries to Beckett and Matsuzaka, and Lackey was rather less productive than we'd collectively hoped (I suppose you could say he was LACKing - get it?!?). The bullpen was a volitile mess, especially if you look at their performance without counting the stats from Bard and Paps (who had his worst season, but still superior to most relievers).

So what's in store for next year? No one can know for sure, but the Bill James Handbook at least offers predictions based on math I don't really understand, rather than total guesses pulled out of thin air.

So, without further ado, here are James' predictions for members of the presumptive pitchers for the 2011 Sox (accompanied by their 2010 numbers):

Josh Beckett:2010: 6-6, 21 starts, 127.2 IP, 5.78 ERA
2011 prediction: 10-9, 26 starts, 168 IP, 3.86 ERA
Beckett's lost season was a HUGE part of the reason the Sox missed out on the playoffs in 2010, and even a reasonable bounce back like the one James is predicting would give the Red Sox a fantastic edge.

Clay Buchholz:2010: 17-7, 28 starts, 173.2 IP, 2.33 ERA
2011 prediction: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA
I'm going to go on record here and guess that James is underestimating Clay. The dominance we saw last season was not a fluke, and I'm confident Buchholz can be consistent in 2011. There's a reason Theo hasn't accepted any trade offers for Clay, and what we saw last year was just the beginning.

John Lackey:2010: 14-11, 33 starts, 215 IP, 4.40 ERA
2011 prediction: 13-12, 33 starts, 227 IP, 3.89 ERA
When I actually saw Lackey's 2010 stats, I have to confess to being a bit surprised that he was such an innings-eater. If he can live up to these predictions as the third/fourth starter, I will be content.

Daisuke Matsuzaka:2010: 9-6, 25 starts, 153.2 IP, 4.69 ERA
2011 prediction: 10-9, 27 starts, 173 IP, 3.85 ERA
Again, I'll take it. No, Matsuzaka has never been the ace we thought we were getting way back in the offseason of 2007, but (aside from his lost 2009) he's been more than adequate for the back of the rotation, and I expect he'll continue to be consistent(ly infuriating to watch).

Jon Lester:2010: 19-9, 32 starts, 208 IP, 3.25 ERA
2011 prediction: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA
I think Lester will do better than this, especially if he can figure out how to avoid the awful April we've come to expect from him. James badly underestimated Lester in his predictions for 2010, and I think he's cut the southpaw short again this year.

Tim Wakefield:2010:4-10, 19 starts, 130 IP 5.34 ERA
2011 predictions: 6-6, 14 starts, 115 IP, 4.07 ERA
If Wake gets to start at all in 2011, it will be spot starts here and there. The knuckleballer's career is winding down, and though it's hard to say goodbye, this season will likely be his last.

I'm going to leave the relievers out of this equation for now, since roles and such will be in flux, and the Sox bullpen is likely going to see some serious revamping before Opening Day (which is MUCH too far away). But, if the members of the rotation listed above can match their projections (and if one or two of them *cough*Buchholz*Lester*cough* can exceed them), I think 2011 will be a much more productive year for the Sox, at least pitching-wise.

Rainy Day Blues

I was planning on seeing King Felix go against Johnny K Lester at this afternoon's matinee... However, the weather has other plans.

Because of the rainout, I will be seeing LAST night's starters, David Pauley and Josh Beckett, while people with tickets to last night's tilt get to see MY boys. Needless to say I'm very upset about it, but hoping for a good game anyway.

Go SOX!

A study in contrast

Friday night, Beckett was the deer...

The last two games in Texas have been polar opposites. Friday night, we had a heartbreaker: Josh Beckett was handed a six-run lead early in the game, and he couldn't hold on. Last night Jon Lester pitched a masterful 8 innings of shutout ball.

On Friday, the offense absolutely exploded, scoring nine runs on thirteen hits, including five homers, but the pitching was a mess, though the bullpen managed to hold on for a few innings until Tim Wakefield gave up the game-winning home run in the bottom of the eleventh.

Yesterday, the offense was somewhat anemic, only managing one run until the top of the ninth, when they scored two additional insurance runs. However, the pitching last night was phenomenal. Jon Lester was masterful, and though Scott Atchison got into a spot of trouble in the bottom of the ninth, Felix Doubront came in with the tying run at the plate and closed out the game without allowing a run.

Given my druthers, I would like to see a combination of the two performances going forward: sparkling pitching performances coupled with explosive run production for the rest of the season would be great. Daisuke Matsuzaka goes this afternoon, so we'll see if my wish gets granted.

Surprise! (Not)

Friday was a great day. The Sox took the first game in the Bronx, and the optimism started to emerge in Red Sox Nation: some fans anticipated a sweep, followed by a glorious fall from grace (and in the standings) for the defending World Champs.


Then came yesterday's farce. First of all, starting a baseball game at 4:10PM is absolutely ridiculous, and then we had to spend all afternoon and evening listening to Joe Buck and Tim McCarver gush about Robinson Cano (who is, admittedly, having a killer season).

Of course, the Yankees won last night, negating the one-game gain the Sox had made on Friday, but I can't say I was surprised. If you had asked me my expectations for the weekend on, say, Thursday night, I would have been quick to tell you that 3-out-of-4 was a reasonable outlook, and it's all about pitching.

Clay Buchholz has been far superior to Javier Vazquez this year; Josh Beckett instills more confidence in me than AJ Burnett; Jon Lester against Dustin Moseley is a little bit of a joke. However, CC Sabathia is one of the best pitchers in the game, and it's been clear that John Lackey has yet to quite reach his stride in the AL East.

I still think we can take the next two games, though I am rather annoyed at their start times... 8PM on a Sunday, then 2PM on a Monday? Geez, what about the working stiffs? With the way ratings have fallen this year, they really shouldn't be alienating fans this way. But I digress. It's going to be an uphill battle, but there's still time to make it to October.