Expansion was inevitable - and it's not the end of the world

 I'm taking a class this semester called "History of U.S. Sports," and we actually had a discussion of playoff expansion a few weeks ago.  The professor broke it down for us: who benefits from playoff expansion, and who loses? First the beneficiaries: owners - with more games, they make more money, and cusp teams will be playing meaningful games deeper into the season; players - more players will get the chance to show their stuff in the postseason, and since many of them have playoff series MVP reward triggers in their contracts, they like this; agents - they benefit when their players do; Major League Baseball - more games is more hype, more advertising, and more money; small-market cusp teams - if you're a perennial second- or third-place finisher, this is going to energize your team and your fanbase; networks - more high-stakes games means more viewers, more advertisers, and more money.

So who loses? Big market playoff shoe-ins - teams like the Yankees or Phillies, who nearly always make the playoffs, don't want to see more competition in their way; fans - the more diehard, nostalgic fans see this as an affront (just as they did with the advent of divisional play in 1969 and the Wild Card in 1995 - fans always pine for the good old days, which tend to be whatever was happening when they became a fan).

You can see why the expansion will always win out: most of the beneficiaries are backed by the potential for big bucks, while the losers don't have much sway - diehard fans aren't going to boycott the expanded playoffs in large enough numbers to make up for all the casual fans who will find a one-game playoff infinitely more exciting and digestible than actually paying attention for 162 games (we should face it, as a culture, we love the potential for heroics and heartache in a high-stakes situation).

I actually like this new format (I know, I'm upsetting you, but hear me out): yes, one-game playoffs are inherently unfair, as any fan knows than an inferior team can beat a superior team in one game. But the format SHOULD BE UNFAIR to a Wild Card team who, by definition, is not as good as the Division winner. [I'd actually much rather see a balanced schedule, but that's a rant for another day.] 

The fact is that this will make winning the Division actually mean something - and it hasn't for quite some time.  Teams with the Wild Card locked up have coasted through September for years now, resting up their regulars and rendering the last month of the season essentially meaningless (thus cheating fans who buy tickets).  Under the new system, teams will want to avoid a one-game playoff at all costs, and will play meaningful baseball for longer.

At the end of the day, Major League Baseball is a business, and they will do anything that makes them more money. Playoff expansion has been profitable (in every American sport) every time it has happened. So love it or hate it, it's here to stay.

[And yes, I actually get college credit for discussing these things every week. Last class we discussed playoff expansion, Linsanity, Tim Tebow, and Teddy Roosevelt. I love you, Trinity College.]

Playoff Preview 2011

 The marathon is over.  One hundred and sixty-two games later, just eight teams remain, all hunting for the right to raise the Commissioner’s Trophy into the October night.  The road to the postseason was exciting for many, with the Rays and the Cardinals sneaking in on the very last day of the regular season – both avoiding potential one-game playoffs for the Wild Card against the free-falling Red Sox (winners of the dubious “worst September collapse in history” distinction) and Braves, respectively.

            Two games into the Division Series at press time, and only the Brewers have an edge (two games to none, over the Diamondbacks).  The Yankees and Tigers, Phillies and Cards, and Rays and Rangers are all tied up, with each team laying claim to a singular LDS victory.  The biggest surprise thus far has to be Cliff Lee’s Game 2 loss, closely followed by James Shields’ disastrous start on Saturday.

            In the best-of-five Division Series, the safest money is on Milwaukee to defeat Arizona in three or four games to advance to the NLCS.  The other series are a bit more convoluted to predict while tied 1-1 each – it essentially means you're predicting the outcome of a best-of-three series; something any baseball fan will tell you is a crapshoot.  Most people are betting on Philadelphia to advance over St. Louis, but the Cards won’t be making it easy, especially since Albert Pujols’ troublesome left ankle didn’t stop him from knocking in the go-ahead run on Saturday to tie the series.

            As for New York and Detroit, the advantage will fall to the team whose ace pulls through Monday evening. Writing this Monday morning, I’m giving the edge to the Yankees and CC Sabathia, despite the apparent Cy Young winner Justin Verlander going for the Tigers at home.  Down in St. Pete, the Rangers have Colby Lewis going against the Rays’ young star David Price.  Price struggled down the stretch, so it’s possible that the 224 innings he pitched in 2011 (by far his career high) are catching up with the young lefty. Conversely, Lewis ended his season with a win, and is 3-0 lifetime against the Rays, so I’m going to give him – and the Rangers – the advantage for Game 3 and the ALDS.

            Assuming all of the above, the ALCS should be Texas vs. New York (Yankees will have home-field advantage), and the NLCS should be Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia (Phillies will have home-field advantage).  This is where the pitching staffs will really start to show; baseball is all about pitching, and one hot or strong-willed started can will his team to a World Series – just ask vintage Josh Beckett (2003, 2007).  Though Texas lacks a Sabathia-caliber ace, the rest of their staff is much more reliable than New York’s: if AJ Burnett were more dependable, the Yankees would have my confidence.  As it is, I’m giving the edge to the Rangers.

            If the Phillies manage to get eliminated before the World Series, it will be seen as a failure.  Like the disgraced BoSox, the Phillies were practically crowned champions in February, before a single game had been played. Their pitching pedigree cannot be questioned, but the Brewers are young, hot, and ambitious. For now, the advantage is with Philly.

            In a Texas-Philadelphia World Series (Philly, as the NL team, has home-field because of the NL win in the All-Star Game), the Phillies win it.  It is, as they say, all about the pitching, and no one can beat the Phillies hurlers, at least on paper.

            However, anyone who has read (or now seen) Michael Lewis’ Moneyball knows that playoffs, and especially best-of-five series, are little better than a roll of the dice. Anything can happen, and probably will: I’m predicting a Phillies-Rangers Fall Classic, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw Cardinals-Tigers, Diamondbacks-Rays, or Brewers-Yankees. That’s (playoff) baseball.

[Note: the strange timing of this entry - not at the beginning of the LDS - is due to the fact that it was originally written for the Trinity Tripod, and my deadline over there is Monday morning. This means I might already be wrong by the time it comes to press Tuesday night. Oops.]

Some things never change.

I KNEW the Yankees would win tonight. I looked at the matchups, and I mentally conceded this game to the pinstriped devils.

You're a gamer, CJ... too bad your bullpen isn't.

When CJ Wilson pitched six scoreless, and the Texas bats gave him a five-run cushion, I was still nervous. A five-run lead is not enough when you're going up against the best team money can buy, even when you're at home.

So why is this loss so upsetting? I knew it was coming. With the inevitability of fall sliding into winter, I saw this loss for the Rangers, but I never stopped hoping, not until the final out was made.

This will be tough for the Rangers to bounce back from. Is it possible? Yes, anything can happen in baseball, but a win tonight would have given the Rangers unimaginable momentum heading into the next few days.

But why was this loss so viscerally upsetting? Precisely BECAUSE it was unsurprising. The Yankees are supposed to win. If they don't win the World Series, every year, with a payroll like that, it is a failure. Losing in the World Series? Failure. Getting eliminated in another round of the playoffs? Blasphemy. Missing the playoffs altogether? Unheard of.

It's grating. The Yankees unlimited ability to spend and spend and buy wins that no other team can afford based simply on the size of their captive audience is detrimental to the integrity of the game. It's like if US Steel had been part of MLB. The person with the most money always wins, and I don't know about you, but I'm sick and tired of this storyline.

Now, Imagine each of those singles is ONE BILLION DOLLARS. MUAHAHAHAHA!

I think baseball needs a salary cap. I know this is a long shot, and that the player's union would fight a proposal like that to the death, but the sport is suffering because the playing field is anything but level right now. Alex Rodriguez alone made more money this year than the entire roster of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Yankees represent everything that is wrong with baseball - and even their fans deserve better. The championships they've bought aren't nearly as special as those won by other teams, because the frequency of victory has made pennants commonplace, and even boring.

Tonight's Yankee victory was upsetting on a visceral level, because it represented more of the same: the upstart Rangers, who have only won a single playoff series in team history, getting beaten by the powerhouse Yankees, the Enron of Major League Baseball.

Don't Mess with Texas... Please?

I don't know about you, but I've been lost since the end of Game 5 at the Trop, and I'm totally psyched for the ALCS to get underway this evening.

A lot has happened in the last week (basically, everything but me posting. Sorry...). Somehow, every prediction I made for the Division Series' came true. Don't worry, I'm as shocked as you are

Initially, I had picked Texas over New York, but I think the five-game series with Tampa Bay might have hurt their chances. Cliff Lee versus CC Sabathia would have been an epic matchup (and a nice reprise of last year's World Series), but it would have had the added drama of all of Cleveland collectively banging their heads against a wall.

Poor Cleveland... And I do mean POOR.

The Rangers do, of course, have home field advantage in this series, which means a hell of a lot more when the away games are in Yankee Stadium than it does when they're in Tropicana Field. Yankees fans might be annoying, but they at least show up and pay attention.

If CJ Wilson can keep the lids on the Yankee lineup this evening, and the Rangers serve all-you-can eat Mexican food as the pre-game spread so Sabathia is too full to pitch, I could see Texas taking game one. Really, the Rangers best chance for this series is to concede the games in which Sabathia pitches and shell young Phil Hughes, OLD Andy Pettitte, and the enigma himself, AJ Burnett.

Is it probable? No, not with Cliff Lee resting until game 3. But anything can happen: CJ Wilson could start channeling Cy Young, CC Sabathia might eat a clubhouse attendent and miss game 1 because he's in the slammer, A*Rod might choke (weird, huh?).

Remember that time CC almost ate Pedey? Me, neither.

Don't mess with Texas, New York. Texas messes back.

Halladay makes history

Last fall, in the immediate aftermath of the World Series, my Phillies fan friends were less than ecstatic. Trust me, I told them, I KNOW how badly it sucks to lose to New York. And then came the news of that blockbuster December trade... You know, the one that sent Cliff Lee to Seattle, Roy Halladay to Philadelphia, and prospects to Toronto so they could start "rebuilding."

MKy roommate, a casual Phillies fan from South Jersey (VERY different from North Jersey, as I was constantly told), was very upset. She didn't know anything about Halladay, and Lee had been the only bright spot in that lost World Series. "Trust me," I told her, "You will absolutely LOVE Roy Halladay."

[Not to mention how much I was going to love watching his brilliance when it didn't often come against MY team, for a change.]

She was skeptical, but let it go - I'm guessing by now she's forgotten that the conversation even took place. At the time, I at first couldn't believe that she didn't know about the excellence that was Doc Halladay, and then I checked myself: Halladay had never played in the playoffs, and had spent his whole spectacular career buried in the American League East. There was no reason that a casual fan of a National League team WOULD know about him.

Well, they've all heard of him now. After the perfect game in May, Halladay went on to have a shut-down season for the Phils, and last night he tossed a one-walk, no-hit gem in Philadelphia to put the Phillies up 1-0 on the Reds in the NLDS. Oh, did I mention that it was only the second no-hitter in Major League history, after Don Larsen's perfect game in 1956?

And in his first postseason start ever. Yeah, I feel pretty good about that offhanded comment last December: Philadelphia is LOVING Roy Halladay.

Philly's taking it.

Way back in April, I picked Colorado, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Anaheim, Minnesota, New York, and Boston to make the playoffs, which puts my grade at 50%, failure by any professor’s standards. However, in baseball speak, I batted .500, which is impossibly good – it’s all about perspective. (For perspective, Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus were also 4-for-8.)

Hopefully I’ll be more on the ball in my playoff predictions, but let me first start off with the disclaimer that the playoffs are, in the immortal words of Moneyball author Michael Lewis, “a giant crapshoot.” The Major League Baseball season is 162 games long; it’s a marathon that specializes in wearing teams down and weeding out the weak and injured, letting the elite emerge with the best records. However, anything can happen in a small sample-size like the 5-game League Division Series’, or the 7-game League-Championship and World Series.

That said, I’m going to take a stab at predicting the outcome – after all, there’s a 12.5% chance I’ll guess right!

The playoff schedules weren’t set until Sunday afternoon when the last three teams clinched, and the Division Series’ will start Wednesday, with the AL East champion Rays hosting the AL West champions Rangers, the AL Central champion Twins hosting the AL Wild Card entry Yankees, and the NL East champion Phillies hosting the NL Central Reds. Thursday evening will see the NL West Champion Giants hosting the Wild Card entry Braves.

In the first round I’m taking the Giants and Rangers in 5 games, and Yankees and Phillies in 4. Really, it’s all about pitching, and all four of these teams have a legitimate ACE: Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, and Roy Halladay, respectively. All of these pitchers are capable of absolutely dominating, and the lineups behind them are hardly something to scoff at.

The Championship Series’ should see both New York and Philadelphia defending their 2009 Pennants, with mixed success. Philly and San Francisco match up pretty evenly on paper, but the Phillies should take it in six games. The Giants have Lincecum and Matt Cain, but the Phillies will counter with Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels. Sure, you could argue that Halladay has never even been in a postseason game before, but its not like he’s a stranger to high-pressure situations, having pitched in the competitive AL East for most of his career.

As for the American League Pennant, I’m picking Texas in seven games. Again, this mostly comes down to pitching. CC Sabathia is close to a sure thing, but he was beaten last postseason by Cliff Lee (then with the Phillies), and after Sabathia the Yankees rotation is anything but steady. Andy Pettitte is coming off of a torn groin (and he’s 38-years-old), AJ Burnett is an enigma at best, and Phil Hughes has more than doubled his innings from last year. On the other hand, Texas has four reliable starters in Lee, CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, and Tommy Hunter. Both lineups are formidable, but the return of Josh Hamilton should tip the scales in the Rangers’ favor.

Because the National League won the All-star game for the first time since 1996 (2002 ended in a tie), the World Series will be hosted by the National League Pennant winner, which in this projection is Philadelphia. The Phillies have distinct advantages in a number of areas: their team ERA is nearly half a run better than the Rangers’ team ERA; they have a wealth of postseason experience, as this could be their third straight NL Pennant; and they have home-field advantage. That said, this should be a close series, going to six or even seven games. The two teams have comparable lineups, and they each boast one of the top-five starting pitchers in the game. The Rangers have the better bullpen, which could allow them to steal a game or two if they can wear down the starters early. However, all things considered, the Phillies should be able to top the Rangers and win their second World Series in the last three years. After all, Philadelphia finished the regular season with baseball’s best record, it would only be fitting if they finished the postseason with baseball’s highest prize.

But I don't WANT to act professionally...!

So whenever you ask a sportswriter (NOT a blogger, who has no deadlines) who has their loyalty, they say that they root for quick games and good storylines. Of course, being the crazy-obsessed fan that I am proud to be, I couldn't wrap my head around dropping your fandom for a job.

However, I'm supposed to be writing an MLB playoff preview for my college newspaper, and I just want everything to be decided so I can meet my deadline. I know this is easier because the Red Sox are out of it, but I really just want the AL Wild Card/AL East race to get decided by tonight, even if it means the Sox will lose the game(s). I want the Giants to beat the Padres tonight to decided the NL West, and the Braves to beat the Phillies and clinch the Wild Card already.

Despite the fact that this image makes me want to vomit instinctively, I'll take it if it means I can do my job.

Because of the nature of the playoffs, I'm pretty stuck on even starting this article before I know who's in it and what their records are, and I'm really not a patient person.

Of course, ideally in my world, the Red Sox take both games of the double-header (unlikely, with Wake taking on Pettitte, though I could easily back Matsuzaka over the enigma that is Burnett), while the Rays win - and since they're at Kansas City, it seems plausible.

But even if the Yankees take the division by sweeping the Sox, it's not the end of the world. The Red Sox are going out not with a bang, but with a whimper: Adrian Beltre has gone to be with his wife as she delivers their child, Clay Buchholz is shut down due to a stiff back, and Marco Scutaro is out nursing his respective aches.

So while the Red Sox fan in me is appalled at this attitude, my inner writer just wants everything to get settled - even if it's at the (further) expense of my dearly beloved team. Is this growing up, or am I just losing my soul?