2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Outfielders

[A continuation of this post which I began with the Bill James projections for infielders.]


Left field, Carl Crawford:
2011 projection: 149 games, .300 BA, .350 OBP, .453 SLG, 14 HR, 93 RBI
2011: 130 games, .255 BA, .289 OBP, .405 SLG, 11 HR, 56 RBI
2012 projection: 155 games, .286 BA, .332 OBP, .436 SLG, 15 HR, 73 RBI

It's no secret that Crawford performed rather less well than we had hoped he would last season, and James' expectations seem to have been lowered in keeping with 2011.  The good news is that though Crawford only managed to steal 18 bases last year, James thinks he'll steal 34 next season.


Center field, Jacoby Ellsbury:
2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI
2011: 158 games, .321 BA, .376 OBP, .552 SLG, 32 HR, 105 RBI
2012 projection: 158 games, .304 BA, .362 OBP, .476 SLG, 19 HR, 72 RBI

I think it's safe to say that Ellsbury proved himself last year, but apparently James is expecting a backslide. Here's hoping Goldenboy proves him wrong.


[Possible] Right fielder, Ryan Sweeney:
2011: 108 games, .265 BA, .346 OBP, .341 SLG, 1 HR, 25 RBI
2012 projection: 105 games, .285 BA, .353 OBP, .392 SLG, 4 HR, 36 RBI

Both last years numbers and the projections were for Oakland - and Sweeney's playing time is up in the air.  These numbers are solid enough for a fourth outfielder, but I'd like to see more power out of a permanent corner guy.

[Possible] Right fielder, Darnell McDonald:
2011: 79 games, .236 BA, .303 OBP, .401 SLG, 6 HR, 24 RBI

2012 projection: 113 games, .268 BA, .325 OBP, .320 SLG, 9 HR, 40 RBI


McDonald has been more than serviceable in the last few years - the right fielder job is still up in the air, and it stands to reason he'll get a shot at it.


Other possibilities for the outfield include Ryan Kalish and Che-Hsuan Lin, both of whom spent last year in the minors, so they don't have projections in the 2012 Handbook.

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Infielders

I'm doing this a little differently from last year.  Since there is a new manager who will have his own new ideas about the makeup of the lineup, I won't even try to guess what it will be for 2012.  So there will be four projections posts: this one for infielders (and DH), one for outfielders, one for starting pitchers, and one for relief pitchers.

1st base, Adrian Gonzalez:
2011 projection: 161 games, .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG, 33 HR, 102 RBI
2011: 159 games, .338 BA, .410 OBP, .548 SLG, 27 HR, 117 RBI
2012 projection: 160 games, .301 BA, 387 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 105 RBI

 Last year's projections were calculated by James and his team with the assumption that Gonzalez would be playing in San Diego's cavernous Petco Park for 81 games, so it only makes sense that he surpassed those numbers in the friendly confines of Fenway Park.  James predicts a precipitous drop off from last year to this one - but I don't think it will be quite so steep.


2nd base, Dustin Pedroia:
2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI
2011: 159 games, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, 21 HR, 91 RBI
2012 projection: 143 games, .299 BA, .378 OBP, .469 SLG, 17 HR, 73 RBI

James consistently underestimates Pedey.  I guess it was understandable for last year, since no one was sure how he would bounce back from his foot injury in 2010, but I think we know what to expect from Pedroia at this point.  If he's not doing well, or if the team isn't, Pedroia WILLS himself to do better. I don't put much stock in "intangibles," but if they exist, the Sox second baseman has them.


3rd base, Kevin Youkilis:
2011 projection: 151 games, .294 BA, .398 OBP, .507 SLG, 25 HR, 95 RBI
2011: 120 games, .258 BA, .373 OBP, .459 SLG, 17 HR, 80 RBI
2012 projection: 135 games, .281 BA, .389 OBP, .489 SLG, 21 HR, 86 RBI

It's no secret that Youk had a rough 2011.  In fact, given his sports hernia and bursitis in his hip (requiring surgery), it's impressive that he managed to play in 120 games.  Given his injuries and the Red Sox collapse, it's easy to forget the fantastic first half that Youkilis had, even being named to the AL All-Star Team.  Assuming all went well this offseason, expect a rebound season for Youkilis.

Shortstop, Marco Scutaro:
2011 projection: 153 games, .266 BA, .339 OBP, .374 SLG, 10 HR, 60 RBI
2011: 113 games, .299 BA, .358 OBP, .423 SLG, 7 HR, 54 RBI
2012 projection: 143 games, .271 BA, .341 OBP, .378 SLG, 9 HR, 59 RBI

Though somewhat short of spectacular, Scutaro has been one of the better Red Sox shortstops in recent memory (not injury-riddled like the now-departed Jed Lowrie, nor error-prone as the abominable Julio Lugo).  He's been quite steady, both in the field and at the plate, and he'll likely continue that pattern.


Shortstop, Jose Iglesias:
2011: 10 games, .333 BA, .333 OBP, .333 SLG, 0 HR, 0 RBI
2012 projection: 50 games, .241 BA, .277 OBP, .277 SLG, 0 HR, 10 RBI

Everyone knows that this job is Iglesias' for the taking.  If he hits as James predicts, we'll see more of Scutaro for 2012 - if he exceeds these projections, we'll likely witness the shift away from Scuaro and into the foreseeable future. 

Catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
2011 projection: 110 games, .249 BA, .323 OBP, .422 SLG, 12 HR, 43 RBI
2011: 103 games, .235 BA, .288 OBP, .450 SLG, 16 HR, 56 RBI
2012 projection: 95 games, .245 BA, .311 OBP, .426 SLG, 13 HR, 45 RBI

Salty's playing time will likely depend on how skillful Kelly Shoppach turns out  to be as a backup.  As one of the only players pulling his own weight in September, I have faith in Saltalamacchia's ability to hold up the mantle of head catcher and game-caller that Jason Varitek held for so long.


Catcher, Kelly Shoppach:
2011: 87 games, .176 BA, .278 OBP, .339 SLG, 11 HR, 22 RBI
2012 projection: 85 games, .227 BA, .318 OBP, .431 SLG, 11 HR, 31 RBI

As you might remember, Shoppach was drafted by the Red Sox originally, before spending time in Cleaveland and Tampa Bay.  He bats righthanded, and hits better against lefties than Salty, but given the power in the Sox lineup, his playing time will probably depend more on how well the pitchers like throwing to him.


Catcher, Ryan Lavarnway:
2011: 17 games, .231 BA, .302 OBP, .436 SLG, 2 HR, 8 RBI
2012 projection: 77 games, .275 BA,.351 OBP, .527 SLG, 13 HR, 41 RBI

Obviously, the Red Sox are not going to be carrying three catchers, and the projections were calculated before the move for Shoppach.  If Shoppach struggles mightily, and Lararnway is tearing it up in Pawtucket, we might see him sooner rather than later.  Otherwise, expect to see the Sox give him some more time to develop.


Utility infielder, Nick Punto:
2011: 63 games, .278 BA, .388 OBP, .421 SLG, 1 HR, 20 RBI
2012 projection: 99 games, .243 BA, .329 OBP, .315 SLG, 1 HR, 23 RBI

I don't know too much about Nick Punto, but it's unlikely that he'll get the 99 games of playing time James predicted when it was assumed he'd be playing for the Cards.  If we can get passable offense and defense from our utility guy, I'll be happy.

Utility infielder, Mike Aviles (thanks to Paul for the reminder!):
2011: 91 games, .255 BA, .289 OBP, .409 SLG, 7 HR, 39 RBI
2012 projection: 101 games, .279 BA, .311 OBP, .423 SLG,  8 HR, 38 RBI

As Paul said in the comments, if Youkilis can't hack it for whatever reason, we'll be seeing quite a bit of Aviles this season.  The numbers are more than satisfactory from a utility man - but James is predicting a lot of playing time for him.


Designated hitter, David Ortiz:
2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI
2011: 146 games, .309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG, 29 HR, 96 RBI
2012 projection: 150 games, .277 BA, .378 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 104 RBI

Though the Red Sox struggled mightily in April, Papi escaped his usual struggles last spring, and surpassed most of James' predictions for him - here's hoping he can do that again, even at age 36.

[Final note: players not with the Red Sox at the beginning of 2011 do not have their 2011 projection numbers, because I left the 2011 Bill James Handbook in my dorm room - the Sox projections were recovered from last year's projection post.]

Andrew Bailey to the Sox

 According to Boston.com's Extra Bases blog, the Red Sox have traded for Oakland A's closer Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney.  Josh Reddick will be shipping out to Oakland, and  Class-A first baseman Miles Head and Class-A pitcher Raul Alcantara will be headed to A's minor league affiliate.

I know some of you grew pretty fond of Reddick last season, since he spent more than half the season with the big club, but his shoes are sure to be filled by someone capable.  While Rookie Reddick was serviceable, batting .280 with seven home runs and 28 RBIs in 87 games, he played just 56 of those games in right field.  According to the Globe's Pete Abraham, the Sox were downright deplorable in right field last season:

Red Sox right fielders hit .233/.299/.353 last season with 14 homers and 58 RBIs. Going by OPS, only Seattle was worse in the American League.

It's unlikely that Sweeney would end up being the full-time right fielder, as he's capable of playing all three outfield positions, and he seems to be more of a utility/fourth outfielder type, batting .265 with 25 RBIs and just one home run last season in 108 games.  We'll probably be seeing a lot of Ryan Kalish, who has hopefully fully recovered from all of his ailments.  Obviously, Kalish won't just be handed the job - there will be some competition in Spring Training.

But we all know that the gem of this deal is 27-year-old Andrew Bailey.  Since the departure of Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox Nation has been understandably worried about who is going to be closing games, especially because former heir-apparent Daniel Bard has expressed interest in starting.  Bailey should be a serviceable replacement, as he has 75 saves in his three-year career, and though his ERA went up considerably last year (1.47 to 3.24), he had nearly four times as many strikeouts as walks.

It will be interesting to see how Bailey fares in the AL East, especially after spending his career in the somewhat cushier AL West (though I'm sure he's happy he doesn't have to face the Angels and Albert Pujols 18 times a season).  All in all, this is a solid move for new GM Ben Cherington - maybe it will even get Red Sox Nation off his back.

Merry Christmas - have some copyright infringement!

I got an email from Brett Rudy the other day tipping me off to this post on Boston Sports Then and Now - apparently the Sox weren't allowed to use the image and name of Rudolph for their holiday promotion:

“We had discussed the opportunity of linking together Rudolph with the Boston Red Sox last year, and I know that you mentioned that was not something you were able to do. Then today, this message was distributed to their fans, and it currently is posted on their website. I’m wondering what changed.” Then it added, “We are disappointed that our concept and presentation seems to have been leveraged without our involvement.”
Well, it turns out the Red Sox liked the idea too much to let lack of a license slow them down, and they opted to proceed anyhow. According to Sharma later that same evening, there was still no deal. “Nothing has changed (and thank you for bringing this to our attention) – this use is unauthorized and will be dealt with appropriately.”

 This is obviously disappointing, since the Red Sox, as a subsidiary of Major League Baseball, are extremely strict about who uses their brand, but seem to have no qualms about using someone else's.  Definitely head over to Boston Sports Then and Now and check out the whole article.

Rudolph, the Red Sox Reindeer

If you have about ninety seconds to watch this e-card the Red Sox are sending out, please do. Best laugh I've had all day.

Time for Tek to bow out - gracefully

Bring on the haters, but I am seriously so tired of people saying that the Red Sox are treating Jason Varitek unfairly:

"it’s just not right for the Red Sox to treat him this way. He wants to finish his career in Boston. He will always be part of the Red Sox because he was the true first captain. You will be greatly missed Varitek, we love you." [Tumblr post]

First of all, the Red Sox do not owe Jason Varitek anything but respect. They do not owe him another year on the team, especially if there is a viable, cheaper, and possibly much more productive alternative.  He CAN finish his career in Boston if he really wants - the man will be FORTY YEARS OLD in April, and younger players than he have gracefully hung up their spikes after fulfilling careers.

Where were Tek's FANTABULOUS leadership skills last season when apparently the bulk of the team decided to ignore the manager and their work-out plan? I know he was in the bullpen or on the field for most games, but surely he knew about the clubhouse hijinks? Why didn't El Capitan SAY SOMETHING - and if he did, and was ignored, then his leadership certainly isn't reason enough to keep a man who hasn't broken .232 or fifteen homeruns in four years on the team.

I'm also extremely confused about the "true first captain" comment: I'm pretty sure these men would have something to say about that.

Let me be clear: I love Jason Varitek.  I practically have a shrine to him in my room:

I also attended his Celebrity Putt-Putt charity event this summer:

I had a fantastic time, and I truly believe that Tek is a genuinely awesome human being. But it's time to face the facts, Red Sox Nation.  His glory days are far behind him, and his greatest value comes from "game-calling skills" - something many teams leave to the manager on the bench, relayed to the pitcher with signs.  I will always look back on Tek's time with the team fondly - I came of age with him behind the plate, and he'll always hold a special place in my heart.


But baseball has no room for sentimentality, and it is Tek's time to bow out gracefully. I really hope that for his sake, and the sake of the organization, that he takes the practical path to retirement - maybe someday he'll return to us as a coach (though he has said he's uninterested in such a job).

Deja Vu: A return to roots for a former Sox catcher

Remember that time we traded a homegrown catcher to the Indians for Coco Crisp?  And then he went to Tampa Bay for a player to be named later (who ended up being Mitch Talbot)?  Can anyone name that player?

If you said "Kelly Shoppach," you get a cookie! [But not really - I can't send cookies through the internet.]  When we originally sent Shoppach to Cleveland, he was a pretty promising young catcher, who had the potential and the tools to be a qualified offensive and defensive player, though he has done some back-sliding since.

So what does his return mean for the Red Sox? Well, for one, it most likely means that we have seen the last of Jason Varitek's playing days, at least in Boston.  This should come as no surprise, since Ben Cherington has been hinting that he's reluctant to bring back Tek (or Wake, for that matter) for a while now.  In addition, it means that the Red Sox have a viable backup catcher who has spent significant time in the big leagues.  Ryan Lavarnway held his own last fall (17 games, .231 BA, 2 HRs, 8 RBIs), but he could certainly use some more seasoning in the minors.

Over at Boston.com's Extra Bases Blog, Pete Abraham mentions the possibility of using Lavarnway as trade bait now that the Sox have a viable alternative, but cautions that possibility is unlikely.  The most prudent course of action would be to keep Lavarnway around and continue his development, in case the Shoppach experience leaves something to be desired.  It also bears mentioning that Shoppach is no longer a young prospect, as he'll turn 32 at the beginning of next season, so keeping Lavarnway is insurance for aging, as well.

This isn't a huge move for the Sox, and it isn't a great deal of time or commitment, either, as the deal is a single year at $1.35 million.  It should be interesting to have a new face behind the plate.

Last but not least, three useless trivia facts about Kelly Shoppach:

• He drove in the first run at the new Yankee Stadium (April 16, 2009)
• On July 30, 2008, Shoppach had five extra-base hits in one game, against the Tigers (three doubles and two homers)
• For all you Tek fans, Shoppach has caught a no-hitter himself - calling Matt Garza's no-no on July 26, 2010