Memorable Moments of 2010: Part 1

During what are historically the slowest days of the year for baseball there's not too much to write about. Instead of waiting for news, I decided to look back on some of the spectacular plays from 2010 - there were more than I thought.

Today, we'll reexamine the heroics of Darnell McDonald:


I'm sure you guys remember it... McDonald had just been called up from Triple-A - for what was supposed to be a short stay. He prompty hit a game-tying 2-run home run in the late innings, and went on to win the game with a walk-off single.

At the time, I think we were all pretty confident that McDonald would be a passing blip on our radar, but he managed to stick around and be a solid contributor all summer. He was consistent in the field and at the plate, and while he was fall from an all-star, he certainly earned his pay.

The thirty-two year old outfielder has been bouncing around the minor and major leagues since 2004, when he made his debut with the Orioles, but the most games he's played for a major league club in a season was this year with the Sox, and it wasn't close. It was nice to see McDonald get a real shot in 2010 - he certainly made himself memorable.

Merry Fricken' Christmas, Red Sox Nation!

Josh Beckett is the key to 2011

I'm finally home for break, and I have to say that the thing I consistently look forward to about getting out of Hartford is renewed access to MLB Network. I've been watching it whenever I can commandeer the remote (pretty easy to do now that my older sister has her own house), and last night on Hot Stove, the analysts were asked to rank their top five teams of 2011, as they were constructed at airtime. That means no assuming the Yankees will flex their financial muscle, and no calculating the Rangers chances if Vlad Guerrero is back - the analysts agreed that both scenarios are all but certain.

However, of the three personalities asked to rank their five, all three had the Red Sox as the best American League team (one ranked the Sox first overall, with the Phillies second, while the other two ranked Philly first and Boston second). It's easy to understand Philadelphia's appeal: they have four legitimate aces in their rotation. Boston, on the other hand, has made a few MAJOR moves to add to an already formidable roster.

However, all three analysts - and the host - agreed that there was one thing that the Red Sox absolutely needed if they wanted to live up to their potential, and that was a rebounding Josh Beckett.

I'll spare you the ugly details, but if you're any kind of red Sox fan, you already know how bad Beckett's 2010 went: when he wasn't on the disabled list, he was floundering horribly. This was even more disappointing than it would normally be, because the fiery Texan had signed a very lucrative extension in the spring, and then immediately went out and sucked all season.

Next year, Bill James expects Beckett to make 26 starts (just five more than last year), with a 10-9 record and a 3.86 ERA. No offense to James or Becks, but we need better than that, and I think we can reasonably expect better. First of all, wins are dependent on the team's offense at least as much as they are dependent on the actual pitching performance, and the 2011 Red Sox should be an offensive force.

Also, Josh Beckett is a very proud man. I'm certain that he's all but ashamed of his fail-tastic performance last year, and he's apt to come out swinging.

If Josh can figure out his life and make this work, 2011 should be one for the ages.

Five-Minute Musings: Jenks, Paps, Greinke, Wheeler, and Hall

I know I have been terrible at updating this week... in my defense, it's finals AND I'm trying to pack up my whole room because I'm going abroad next semester. But I do have five free minutes this fine morning, which I will use to debrief the last week in Red Sox Nation (scope expanded due to the offseason).

1. Bobby Jenks to the Red Sox. The bullpen sure looks a hell of a lot better than it did before this signing, as we now harbor three power lefties, all potential closers. Jenks is a solid player, even if his ERA was up pretty high last season (4.44), and he provides much needed security in a bullpen that was a bigger hindrance to the Sox than the injuries last season. (I know, you don't believe me - but we lost too many games as a direct result of a faulty 'pen.) Jenks' career line can be found here at baseball-reference.

2. The status of Jonathan Papelbon. Everyone is freaking out, talking about how this trade means Paps is on the trading block, that we can't possibly keep three possible closers in the bullpen, and that somehow this is some great catastrophe. Calm. Down. Paps was always on the block for this year, because he will be a free agent next offseason. Cinco-ocho has been boasting about how he wants to "set the market for closers" for years now, and Theo never had any intention of paying him. If the presence of Jenks means we can get some impact talent for Paps (now or at the deadline) beyond the draft picks if we let him walk as a FA, I can support that. It's a smart move, and Theo knows what he's doing.

3. Zack Greinke to the Brewers. This is fantastic news for the Red Sox, as it means that a great pitcher is (a) not going to New York, Tampa, or another division rival, and (b) that he'll be in the National League. Honestly, if Greinke had ended up in New York, I wouldn't have been too worried, as his struggle with anxiety would not have boded well in a high-pressure place like the Bronx. However, this is the second time in a week that one of the game's premier pitchers jumped ship from the AL to the NL. Though the Sox play both the Phils and Brewers in interleague this season, I'll take it... the fewer top-tier pitchers my boys have to face, the better.

4. Dan Wheeler signs a one-year deal. The Rhode Island native professes to be thrilled that he'll be playing in Boston next season, even though he's making the switch from our division rival, the Rays. At least he'll have some familiar faces around, what with Carl Crawford (for whom Wheeler had nothing but praise), and the fact that his family still lives in the Ocean State. Wheeler has a 3.84 ERA in his career, and will most likely take the role of primary middle-innings guy in the bullpen.

5. Bill Hall is headed to Houston. Yes, Brad Mills (former Red Sox bench coach, and close friend of Terry Francona's) will finally get to enjoy the Bill Hall experience. Hall will be the club's starting second-baseman. I understand that, as a rule, a starter is more valuable than a sub, but the Red Sox would have been completely lost last season without Hall's super-utility abilities. The man played seven out of the nine positions (everything but first base and catcher), including a flawless inning pitched, and you just know he could have (and would have) played first base if he had been asked. Hall was a classy guy, always willing to fill in where he was needed, and I'm glad he's getting the chance to start if that's what he wants.


That's all for today, folks, but I am heading home for winter break tomorrow, so posting should be much more consistent for the next month or so. As always, thanks for reading!

It's beginning to look a lot like Cliff-mas...

Yes, the rumors are (apparently) true. Clifton Phifer Lee has turned down offers from the Rangers and Yankees to sign with that "mystery team" we've been hearing about all along: many fans assumed it was a ploy from agent Darek Braunecker, but it turns out that the mystery is for real, and it resides in Citizens Bank Park In Philadelphia.

This is literally the best-case scenario for Red Sox fans. I've been saying for weeks that I wanted Lee to go to the Rangers if given the choice between his two suitors, despite the fact that I was SURE he would be in the Bronx - and that what I wanted most of all was for him to end up in the National League.

Generally, I'm a giant skeptic, but Santa has really made a believer about of me this year, first with Gonzo and Crawford, and now this fantastic outcome in the Lee fiasco. Seriously, we Red Sox fans should be kissing Cliff Lee's feet, both for distracting the Yankees for long enough for the Sox to sign Crawford (surely he was their Plan B heading into the offseason), and for ultimately spurning the Yankees offer to return to Philadelphia, thus ensuring that our batters won't see him until the World Series or during interleague play in June.

Apparently, the Yankees had offered Lee $138 million over six years, with an option for a seventh year (for another $16 million), the Rangers offered "a menu of contract options," but it was the Philly's offer of five years, $120 million, with a vesting option for a sixth year for a whopping $27.5 million if he pitches 200 innings in 2015, or 400 combined between 2014-15.

It is interesting to note that the Lees turned down New York, not in favor of being closer to their Arkansas home while playing for Texas, but to go back to someplace Cliff felt comfortable. Lee is really a stand-up guy: we all heard about how uncomfortable Mrs. Lee was in New York for the ALCS, with Yankees fans apparently spitting and throwing beer from the upper decks into the visiting family section, and it seems the couple has taken that into consideration.

It certainly wasn't the money that sent Lee to Philly, so it seems we have no choice but to take it at face value when he claims to simply feel like he belongs there. Lee's former teammates in Philadelphia from the 2009 title run are thrilled to have him back, and rightly so, as he brings the number of aces in their rotation up to four.

I don't know about you, but I'm very glad Cliff Lee will be in the National League for the foreseeable future. Usually I'm a secularist when it comes to holidays, but this year I'll be celebrating Cliff-mas with all of Philadelphia.

2011 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Lineup

I know, I know, this is what you've all been waiting for - and I have kept you waiting. In my defense, had I done this any sooner, I wouldn't have been able to include Adrian Gonzalez or Carl Crawford, and their presence certainly changes things in a big way. Two weeks ago, I presented the Bill James projections for the rotation (58-48 from the front five), and it's high time I did the same for the lineup. Keep in mind, this batting order is just my guess - I'm sure it will change based on who the other team has pitching, who needs rest, and how everyone is doing, so take it with a grain of salt.

CENTER FIELD: Jacoby Ellsbury: 2010: 18 games, .192 BA, .241 OBP, .244 SLG, 0 HR, 5 RBI
2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI

If Goldenboy lives up to these numbers, I promise to stop calling him D-Ellsbury, and maybe even become a fan. In all seriousness, you could ask for more form a leadoff hitter, but it would be pretty demanding. I could definitely live with this line from Ells.

SECOND BASE:Dustin Pedroia: 2010: 75 games, .288 BA, .367 OBP, .493 SLG, 12 HR, 41 RBI
2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI

Hubby is expected to be back to his old voracious, impressive, and loudmouth self in 2011, after a season that was a wash due to injury. Pedey hits best when he's batting second, and he seems to like it, so I expect Tito to keep him there.
LEFT FIELD:Carl Crawford: 2010: 154 games, .307 BA, .356 OBP, .495 SLG, 19 HR, 90 RBI
2011 projection: 149 games, .300 BA, .350 OBP, .453 SLG, 14 HR, 93 RBI

Let's deal with the elephant in the room first: is Crawford worth $20+ million a year? Probably not, but I'm thrilled he's coming to Boston at any cost. I REALLY wish he was willing to bat leadoff, but apparently he hates it, and Tito's not one to go against a player's wishes, but he'll definitely be somewhere near the top. His numbers might be slightly better at Fenway than the Trop, but the difference won't be anything crazy.

THIRD BASE:Kevin Youkilis: 2010: 102 games, .307 BA, .411 OBP, .564 SLG, 19 HR, 62 RBI
2011 projection: 151 games, .294 BA, .398 OBP, .507 SLG, 25 HR, 95 RBI

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Kevin Youkilis is under-appreciated by this fanbase - and that's hard to do. He's wildly consistent, and his willingness and ability to slide across the diamond to third base next year is huge.
FIRST BASE:Adrian Gonzalez: 2010: 160 games, .298 BA, .393 OBP, .511 SLG, 31 HR, 101 RBI
2011 projection: 161 games, .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG, 33 HR, 102 RBI

Keep in mind that Gonzo's numbers are likely to improve due to the Fenway effect. He spent last season playing in Petco Park, where doubles go to die, but even if we only (ONLY!) get the numbers predicted by James, I'll be happy.

DESIGNATED HITTER:David Ortiz: 2010: 145 games, .270 BA, .370 OBP, .529 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI
2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI

Expect the usual from Papi: he'll struggle mightily in April, and then find his stroke sometime in May, just as the howling about his $12.5 million salary reaches fever pitch. In the end, he'll produce what we've come to expect from him, which isn't too shabby when you really look at it.

RIGHT FIELD: JD Drew: 2010: 139 games, .255 BA, .341 OBP, .452 SLG, 22 HR, 68 RBI
2011 projection: 145 games, .263 BA, .370 OBP, .460 SLG, 22 HR, 77 RBI

Mike Cameron: 2010: 48 games, .259 BA, .328 OBP, .401 SLG, 4 HR, 15 RBI
2011 projection: 121 games, .239 BA, .327 OBP, .425 SLG, 18 HR, 58 RBI

Because the outfield is so lefty-heavy, I expect Cameron to get more than enough playing time. I'm coupling him with Drew for the purpose of these projections simply because Drew tends to miss significant time with injuries each year. On the other hand, it is a contract year for Drew, so maybe he'll surprise us.
SHORTSTOP:Marco Scutaro: 2010: 150 games, .275 BA, .333 OBP, .388 SLG, 11 HR, 56 RBI
2011 projection: 153 games, .266 BA, .339 OBP, .374 SLG, 10 HR, 60 RBI
Jed Lowrie: 2010: 55 games, .287 BA, .381 OBP, .526 SLG, 9 HR, 24 RBI
2011 projection: 144 games, .270 BA, .361 OBP, .467 SLG, 17 HR, 75 RBI

Either James is predicting that Lowrie will be a utility guy and get a lot of games at other positions, or he's guessing one of these two will be traded. Either way, both players have respectable lines - though Lowrie's are a bit better across the board. If Lowrie can manage to keep himself healthy (I know that's a big "if" given the history) he'll probably play more, but let's face it: they're both just place-holders until Jose Iglesias is ready.
CATCHER:Jason Varitek: 2010: 39 games, .232 BA, .293 OBP, .473 SLG, 7 HR, 16 RBI
2011 projection: 72 games, .228 BA, .324 OBP, .386 SLG, 33 RBI
Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
2010: 12 games, .167 BA, .333 OBP, .292 SLG, 0 HR, 2 RBI
2011 projection: 110 games, .249 BA, .323 OBP, .422 SLG, 12 HR, 43 RBI

Not the best thing you've ever seen, but if Salty can come into his own defensively while Tek shows him the ropes, I think we can deal with this line. One more note: Salty hits righthanders better, while Tek is pretty good against lefties - I think that's what we'll see.


The very fact that I can plausibly design a lineup that has David Ortiz hitting sixth and JD Drew seventh makes me very excited. I'm sure Tito will figure things out, and his lineup will be fantastic - if we can just keep healthy (PLEASE?!?) this should be a fantastic team to watch.

It's all about the Benjamin$, baby.

You know, just once I would like to see a press conference introducing a player contain some honest candor. When the press asks you why you are on the podium in Boston, New York, or Philly instead of Tampa, Pittsburgh, or Kansas, tell it like it is:

"Honestly, it came down to the money. This club was willing to throw buckets of cash in my general direction, and I just want to be super-duper rich. Sure, it helps that they win and stuff, but it's all about the Benjamins, baby."

Executives, agents, and players are always telling us that baseball is a business when something bad happens - when a player doesn't get resigned, unpopular trades occur, etc. - but when there's a cause for celebration, all that talk gets swept under the rug, and it's all sunshine and rainbows and the love of the game.

Sure, it's nice when players get up their and wax poetic about Ted Williams or Carl Yastrzemski, or talk about how much they're looking forward to playing with the current members of the team, or how the fans' passion was a deciding factor. I'm sure all these things are true to a fault, and maybe it is every young Californian's dream to play in Boston or New York, but in the end, we all know it's the money and years that get things done.

"I appreciate the history of the franchise, but I also really just want more watches like this."

There is the occasional player that is willing to look closely at things besides the dollars, like proximity to family, or a winning atmosphere, but no one in their right mind will take (hypothetically) an offer of $1 million for one year from New York over $25 million over three years to play in San Diego.

I would just like to state that there is nothing wrong with this. It is human nature to always strive for the most - and the best - of everything. If Carl Crawford is coming to Boston, I don't particularly care if it's true that he values the fan involvement more than the millions of dollars, so long as he'll work hard and help us win.

It is, of course, in the player's best interest to suck up to the fans and the media, because no one wants to get booed by their own home crowd, and the media controls public perception of them to a large degree. The smart players start this butt-kissing when they're first officially introduced to the team. for instance, Carl Crawford was introduced at 10am, and by 2pm, he was addressing Sox fans on Twitter.

I'm sure Crawford is legitimately excited to finally play in front of a capacity crowd for 81+ games, but I'm equally certain that if Tampa Bay or Anaheim or anyone else had been able to top the Sox's offer, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

So why the cynicism? I'm not trying to ruin this joyous occasion for Red Sox Nation, just offering up a realistic view of the process. The system is built so that players will end up with the richest teams, and then praise them like the money didn't have anything to do with it. True Red Sox fans should be able to look at this and appreciate how damned lucky we are, because it doesn't matter how passionate your fans are if the money isn't there to back them up.