Something's gotta give. Right?

Okay.  Enough is enough. The Red Sox may be a better team than they've been showing, but until they start putting their proverbial money where their mouths are, I'm done predicting their success.  The raw talent is obviously there, but something is clearly not clicking.  Can they do better than this? Certainly.  WILL they do better than this? I'm no longer so sure.

After tonight's travesty of a game the Sox fall to 1-7 against he Orioles, Mariners, and Indians.  This is unacceptable, especially in a division like the AL East.  to get to the playoffs the Red Sox must win about 95 games, and the easiest way to do that is to win series against mediocre teams like, I don't know, the Orioles, Mariners, and Indians.  If you can't even beat the Indians, how do you expect to beat the Rangers? The Rays? The YANKEES?

Again, this is clearly not a question of talent. The talent is there.  It's at every position, and in most cases that talent is backed up by awards like Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, All Star selections, and MVP votes.  But something isn't clicking. The Red Sox hitters left runners in scoring position tonight like it was going out of style (let's hope that's the case), and it's old news at this point.

During the first skid of the season, Dustin Pedroia called out the Sox pitchers for not living up to their potential.  He had a point, and now the tables are turned, so which Sox hurler has the gall to make a statement? My vote is on Josh Beckett - he's never been one to keep quiet about his feelings, and if the lineup wastes a good start of his like they did Lackey's tonight, heads might roll.

Either the Red Sox step up, starting immediately, or this season starts to slip out of reach. It's hard to dig yourself out of a hole like this one when you can't even beat the perennial cellar-dwellers of the American League.  Something's gotta give. Let's hope it gives soon.

Lester is a champion (especially against the O's)

The Red Sox were just 9-9 against the Baltimore Orioles last season, 4-4 against the Cleveland Indians, and 1-6 against the Chicago White Sox.  Beyond the 2010 Parade of Carnage, this poor performance against mediocre and bad teams was a large part of the reason that the Red sox missed the playoffs.

Thus far, the 2011 Sox are 1-2 against the Orioles, and 0-3 against the Indians (they are 10-8 against everyone else), and they need to do better. Jon Lester set the tone by turning in a 2-run, eight inning performance even when, according to Adrian Gonzalez, "his command was not quite there, but he still goes out there and gives us eight innings and two runs. He’s definitely a Top 5 pitcher in the league."

 Interestingly enough, Jon Lester has never lost to the Orioles, owning a 14-0 record with a 2.33 ERA.  You could chalk this statistic up to the Orioles now being a very good team while Lester's been in the league, but he certainly has notched losses to other mediocre teams, so it's likely an anomaly.  The southpaw did note that he enjoys playing at Camden Yards, but that's hardly reason for his ridiculous run of success against the O's.

I had to monitor the game on ESPN Gamecast last night, since MLB.tv was busy hating on me, and worked only for a very short time during the bottom of the second inning.  However, it was clear that Lester was battling, and he was finally supported by the bats.  Dustin Pedroia's RBI squibbler in the seventh inning to score Carl Crawford put the Red Sox on top for good, and then RBIs by Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jacoby Ellsbury (2) settled the final score at 6-2.

The Sox head home starting tonight, and will play the Mariners, Angels, and Twins, before heading out on the road again.  I see the turnaround starting now... for real this time.

Crumbling Clay?

So maybe my predictions were a little TOO optimistic, but I stand by what I said.  I'm entirely unsurprised that the Red Sox bas were stifled by left-handed rookie Zach Britton (who I have now added to my fantasy team), as thy've been struggling mightily against lefties this season, and Britton has been quite effective thus far.

However, things are looking up: the Orioles have two righthanders going for them in the next two games, and the Sox have Josh Beckett and Jon Lester on the docket, two of the hottest starters on staff - though, to be fair, the only starter NOT on a roll seems to be Mr. Clay Buchholz...

And speaking of Clay, he was very impressive at points last night, despite the four runs and 12 hits he gave up in 6.2 innings.  Three of Baltimore's runs came on sacrifice flies, which is interesting, even if it doesn't absolve Buchholz of any blame (he is, after all, the one who let the runners get to third base).

The most impressive moment, in my opinion, was in the second inning, after Matt Wieters hit that squibbler down the first base line that should have been an out but bounced off the bag and scored the runner.  Clay buckled down and struck out the next two batters he faced, a beautiful sequence of pitching.

So why didn't this dominance continue throughout the game?  Obviously, Clay Buchholz has the physical tools to dominate any lineup, and he was able to do it last night, at least in short bursts and flashes.  When asked about his performance, Buchholz mentioned "tipping [his] hat" to the Baltimore lineup, intimating that he had executed his pitches, and all TWELVE of their hits had been due to their own prodigious skill and not any mistkaes of his.

Sorry Clay, but I'm calling shenanigans on that.  The Orioles just aren't that good.  Sure, they don't look to be the laughingstock that they once were, but they're also no Murderer's Row.  Perhaps the focus just wasn't there last night, or maybe he needs more time to get a handle on his stuff, but the four runs given up last night were not luck, and they weren't a fluke.  Buch should take a leaf out of Beckett's book, and admit when he doesn't have his best stuff.

I do recognize that if the bats hadn't been so effective;y silenced by Britton this post would look very different: we would be celebrating the Red Sox' triumphant turn to .500 (which must now wait at least two more games) and their sixth straight victory.  So yes, the lineup takes some of the blame for this loss - scoring 5 runs is not out of the real of possibility for this team, and they were shut down by a hotshot rookie.

But I'm less worried about the hitters on this team than I am about Buch.  Not that I'm SUPER concerned about him, I think he'll get back on track, but at the very least I think he should be honest and look back on what wasn't working last night. Growth and improvement comes from reflection.

Sadly, I'll be missing tonight's matchup between Beckett and Jeremy Guthrie, because I'm attending a tango lesson in Buenos Aires (I know, tough life).  However, my thoughts, as always, will be at Camden Yards with the Red Sox - tonight should be better than last night.

Looking ahead...

Tonight, the Red Sox will head to Baltimore, where they will play a 3-game set against the free-falling Orioles, and then return home to the friendly confines of Fenway Park to play the Mariners (3 games), Angels (3 games), and Twins (4 games).  As of this afternoon, these teams are 38-49, a combined record well under .500.  However, since the Red Sox are currently ALSO under .500 (10-11), we know you can't take an April record and say what caliber team you have.

In the last 10 games, the Red Sox are 8-2, tied with the Marlins for best in the Majors in that span.  They are a different team than the one who started off 0-6, and thank goodness.  The Orioles are 2-8 over the last 10 games, and 5-7 at Camden Yards.  Their pitching for the upcoming series includes one lefthander (tonight) and two righthanders, and if the Sox can beat tonight then the Sox might be able to complete their second sweep in as many series.

Not to be overly optimistic, but if all of the Red Sox pitchers can continue to toss the ball the way they did during the last turn through the rotation, we might even pick up a few games on the Yankees and forget the horrible start that had all of Red Sox Nation reeling just a week ago.

I'm feeling optimistic, so I'm going to make some bold predictions:

1. Carl Crawford will take the next two weeks and pull himself above the Mendoza line - and then some.

2. Jed Lowrie will continue to rake.  Perhaps not at the ridiculously torrid pace he's been setting, but the numbers will be respectable nonetheless... Tito will be making some tough decisions, soon.

3. Adrian Gonzalez will knock a few more homers.  The much-heralded first baseman's rather slow start has gone unremarked upon because of the struggles of Crawford... but we've been saying all winter how perfect his swing is for Fenway - we'll start to see that now.

4. The Red Sox will finish this upcoming road trip (and 3-game series at Camden Yards) with a 10-3 record, bringing them to 20-14.  I know that's optimistic, but with everyone playing the way they have been, I can't help it - I know this team is that good.

Lackey turns hurt pride into increased drive

John Lackey turned in his second excellent start in a row yesterday, becoming yet another cog in a Red Sox rotation that is turning out to be a well-oiled machine.  One starter after another has turned in a great start over the last week or so, and Lackey was no different yesterday afternoon, tossing eight shutout innings, and giving up just 6 hits and one walk with 108 pitches, 73 of which were thrown for strikes.

According to Lackey, he was able to use the slight of being skipped in the rotation back on April 13th as motivation (to be fair, it was rained out, and instead of pushing everyone nack, he was skipped).  And why not?  The anger and annoyance of being underestimated and overlooked has been motivation enough for teammate Dustin Pedroia to build a ROY/MVP/All Star career on, so it should certainly work for Lackey.

Lackey reported that the skipped start "pissed [him] off," and when asked if he used that as motivation, he quipped, "What do you think?"  It seems that Lackey's got some snark, but it seems to be working for him.  Personally, I could get on board with a bit of sarcasm from the big righty: I find it wildly entertaining when Josh Beckett shuts down reporters (ahem, Heidi Watney) with his snipe.

The fact is, Lackey has always been a quality pitcher: he has a career record of 118-84, with a 3.92 career ERA, and he tosses an average of 219 IP per 162 games.  That's certainly nothing to sneeze at, and Lackey knows it, but he also knows that the expectations in Boston are a bit higher than they were out in southern California.  With the Angels, Lackey won more than 14 games just once, with 19 in 2007.  In his first year with the Sox, he went 14-11and tossed 215 innings during a Parade of carnage that saw nearly all of his teammates miss some time to injury.

But still, the fans howled: "We didn't pay $80 million for a 4.40 ERA!"  Lackey's paycheck is neither here nor there.  It obviously hasn't stopped the front office from going after other high-price talent, and the thing about rooting for a big market team is that they can afford to overpay when they deem it worthwhile.

It's certainly been worth it, in my opinion.  Clearly, Lackey is capable of brilliance, as he's shown us over his last two starts (giving up just one run in 14 innings).  Like Daisuke Matsuzaka, John Lackey seems to have found something to motivate him to turn in his very best every five days: anger.  If all it took to get John Lackey to turn into a bona fide ace was a few days of hurt pride, I can certainly support that.


[Quotes in this post found on the Extra Bases blog, Boston.com]

Fear: A powerful motivator for Daisuke Matsuzaka

Who was that man last night (and the start before, for that matter), and what has he done with Daisuke Matsuzaka?  In all seriousness, over the last two starts, Matsuzaka has given up two hits, and no runs in fifteen innings.  It's especially impressive when you consider that his first two starts of 2011 saw him giving up ten runs in seven innings.

So what's the deal?  Well, we may finally be seeing the pitcher that we thought we were getting: the one who's been missing for three years except when he's wearing the Team Japan WBC uniform.  Matsuzaka has pitched brilliantly of late, mixing speeds and pitches, and attacking the strikezone - you know, all those things John Farrell and now Curt Young have been trying to get him to do all along.

Apparently, Daisuke Matsuzaka is totally aware that these last two starts have been probably the best he's had with the Red Sox, but the surprising (and vaguely infuriating) thing is that he remarked after Monday's game in Toronto that "he was motivated by the fear of losing his spot in the rotation." (via Boston.com's Extra Bases.)

So basically, until he thought he might lose his job (something Tito says was never a possibility), the Red Sox were never important enough to Daisuke to really buckle down and give it his all.  Personally, I always suspected that the Red Sox and MLB came in at a distant second on Matsuzaka's list of priorities, far lower than #1 Team Japan.  In a culture where personal and national honor is the most important thing in a person's life, this is unsurprising, but still disappointing.

It's clear that hoisting the WBC trophy for Japan, and then the WBC MVP trophy was a much bigger point in Daisuke's life than holding the World Series trophy in 2007.  Perhaps we should be proud to have this sort of player on the team: one to which honor for his country and himself means more than $50 million - a rarity in today's world. But it IS sad that only fear of losing his slot in the starting rotation could truly motivate Matsuzaka into pitching to the best of his ability, but I'll take whatever works, at this point.

As Terry Francona said, "If that’s the case I’ll go out and threaten him.”  If it would help, I'll be happy to do the same.

Five-minute Musings (Live from Buenos Aires!)

The Red Sox won again yesterday afternoon, and slowly but surely seem to be emerging from their funk.  Though the team is just 6-11, 4.5 games behind the firs-place Yankees, they seem to be coming to life.  So since I'm sitting in class on a day when the entire country of Argentina is on holiday (again, BEST STUDENT EVER), I'll leave you with five semi-related points:

1. Clay Buchholz notched his first win of the season.  Sadly, I forgot to put him in my fantasy league starting roster for yesterday, so I didn't profit from his fortune.  I was unable to catch the beginning of the game, so by the time I tuned in Clay was out, but from what I hear he was pretty good until the sixth inning, when he loaded the bases with one out, which leads us to...

2. Daniel Bard: The Stopper.  Saves are a wildly overrated statistic.  Without Bard's brilliance in the sixth and seventh innings yesterday, Jonathan Papelbon would not have had the chance to give us all heart palpitations getting the save.  Bard came in with the go-ahead run at the plate and one out - a much more high-pressure situation than the one Jonathan Papelbon dealt with (bases empty, 3-run lead, no outs).  Bard is clearly capable of being poised under pressure, and I'm glad he's on our side.

3. Jed Lowrie is a champion.  The 27-year-old is demanding that terry Francona find a way to put him into the lineup every day, with his .462 batting average, 3 homers, and 11 RBIs in just 13 games. The beauty of Lowrie is that he can play all four infield positions (though only 19 innings in his career at first base), and so Tito can utilize him at a variety of positions to get his potent bat in the lineup.  Clearly, this crazy hot streak can't continue, but if Lowrie continues to produce better than Scutaro, something's gotta give, so stay tuned for that.

4. Despite struggles, the Red Sox CAN be successful against lefties.  Oakland starter Gio Gonzalez is a southpaw, and yet the Sox managed to score four runs off of him.  Notable lefthanded hitter David Ortiz was sitting, though part of that was the shuffling required to get red-hot Lowrie into the game (Youkilis DHed, Lowrie played at third).  However, lefties Carl Crawford, JD Drew, Adrian Gonzalez, and Jacoby Ellsbury were in the lineup, and they managed three hits and two RBIs between them. However...

5. ...Looking ahead, the Sox have a lot of right-handed opponents.  The Angels have four right-handed starters on the docket for this weekend, according to the match-ups just posted on Boston.com's extra bases Blog, and the Sox have Josh Beckett, John Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and John Lackey ready to go.  With the wealth of good left-handed batters on the Sox' roster, this weekend could be a slugfest - hopefully our pitchers can build off the success they had during the last turn through the rotation.

I see good things ahead for the Red Sox.  Sadly, I won't be watching much, as I'm still an hour ahead of Eastern Standard time, so today's and tomorrow's games won't end until after 2am for me... Hopefully Saturday and Sunday will find me watching some baseball.