Trust-Fund Brats

Ten years ago today, the Boston Red Sox defeated the New York Yankees, 13-1, at Fenway Park. Pedro Martinez was at the height of his dominance, pitching seven shutout innings and striking out twelve, while aging Roger Clemens went just two innings, giving up five runs (perhaps he forgot his magic injection that day?). In a vacuum, that sounds like a pretty good day: any time the Yankees get embarrassed is a great time, and if Roger Clemens gets to take the fall, even better.

However, that was the lone win for the Sox in the 1999 ALCS, as they went on to lose the series to the Yankees, four games to one. Of course, the Bronx Bombers were en route to their third Championship in four years, and the Sox were about to head into their eighty-first year without one.

Our old friend Pedro got absolutely ROBBED of a win this afternoon, as he pitched - you guessed it - seven innings of shutout baseball. Unfortunately for #45, the Phillies only gave him one run to work with, and then the bullpen coughed it up in the eighth. As much as I want the Yankees to be humiliated (read: eliminated as soon as possible), how epic would a Phils/Yanks World Series be? If Pedro could shut down the Yanks one more time, it would make their defeat even sweeter, if that's possible.

I miss you, Pedro!

I don't hate the Yankees now like I hated them ten years ago (partly because I was nine years old then, and I hated spinach more than baseball teams). In 1999, I hated the Yankees for having what we didn't: a World Series win (and some to spare!). In examining my current disdain, I came up with a perfect analogy to communicate my feelings.

To me, the Yankees are like that trust-fund kid in college... You know, the one who can do no wrong because Daddy and his credit card can bail him/her out of any problem; the one who can travel the world and take unpaid internships; the one who has never had to work, and if they did, it was to pad their resume. They've had everything handed to them, and they feel entitled to such treatment. If they're not the best at something, they throw a fit, and Daddy fixes it with his money and influence.

I can't stand those people, and that's exactly who the Yankees are: Hank and Hal are exhibits A and B. They missed the playoffs last year, and Daddy bought them whatever they wanted. It makes me want to vomit just thinking about it. I understand that the Sox are not the struggling poor kids in this analogy: that role is reserved for the likes of the Pirates, Nationals, and Royals (they're the kid that had to work all through high school to pay the family bills). The Red Sox (and the Angels, Phillies, and Dodgers) are more like the upper-middle class guy: the one who goes to college only because he gets some financial aid, and probably works part- or full-time in the summers.

I hate the Yankees because I hate people who feel entitled, who think that they DESERVE their good fortune, who think that everyone has the advantages they've been blessed enough to get. Right now, the Angels are losing in Game 1 of the ALCS: here's hoping for some divine intervention.

Yo, Angelica, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let your finish, but the Steinbrenners are the best spoiled brats of all time! Of all time!

Hindsight is 20/20 (Pitching)

Earlier this month, I did an entry comparing the Bill James projections of position player performances to their actual numbers. As always, James was correct more often than not. I had a reader request after that post that I do one concerning our pitchers, and I agreed to - once the playoffs were over. Alas, I would much rather be typing up Red Sox ALCS preview, but this will have to do:

STARTERS

Josh Beckett:
Projection: 29 games, 189 IP, 21 HR, 176 SO, 3.57 ERA, 13-8 record
Actual: 32, 212.1, 25, 199, 3.86, 17-6

Despite the panic in Red Sox Nation over Josh's late-season performance, he actual over-achieved in virtually every category except HR and ERA, and those were close. While Lester may have overtaken him as the ace, he remains a top-tier pitcher.

Jon Lester:
Projection: 32 games, 212 IP, 19 HR, 168 SO, 4.02 ERA, 12-11 record
Actual: 32, 203.1, 20, 225, 3.41, 15-8

Lester emerged as a true top of the rotation guy this year, breaking the franchise single season strikeouts record for a southpaw, and becoming the dominating force he was projected to be. Obviously, be smashed James' SO, ERA, and W-L projections, but there was some worry that his innings from the 2008 campaign might adversely affect him... Clearly, that wasn't the case.

Daisuke Matsuzaka:
Projection: 30 games, 184 IP, 17 HR, 174 SO, 3.58 ERA, 12-8 record
Actual: 12, 59.1, 10, 54, 5.76, 4-6

Obviously, James couldn't have predicted Daisuke's terrible offseason training regimen, which sent him to the WBC and then Spring Training completely out of shape and unable to perform. This, of course, resulted in a lost season from the Japanese enigma. However, the guy we saw in September was encouraging: here's hoping he actually does his workouts this winter.

Tim Wakefield:
Projection: 28 games, 160 IP, 21 HR, 107 SO, 3.91 ERA, 10-8 record
Actual: 21, 129.2, 12, 72, 4.58, 11-5

Knuckleballs are hard to predict on the field, and even more difficult to predict over the course of a season. Wake had an amazing first half, going to his first All-Star game, and let's not forget that gem he threw in April, which could be pointed to as an early turning point for the team. Though his second-half problems are becoming a habit, I'd like to see the team give him another year, especially for $4 million.

(Clay Buchholz was not listed in the 2009 Bill James Handbook)

RELIEVERS

Manny Delcarmen:
Projection: 71 games, 81 IP, 3.44 ERA, 6-3 record, 1 save
Actual: 64, 59.2, 4.53, 5-2, 0

MDC had a great start, lest you forget, but his second half slide was particularly bad, as he melted down in several important situations. People who would know (Curt Schilling, for one) often say that Delcarmen has some of the best stuff on the team, and could be a closer on many teams... It just doesn't look like he has the makeup - except maybe in the National League.

Hideki Okajima:
Projection: 61 games, 61 IP, 3.19 ERA, 5-2 record, 0 saves
Actual: 68, 61, 3.39, 6-0, 0

Oki was what we have come to expect: a quietly above-average pitcher who can get right- and left-handers out with nearly equal efficiency, who can come in to get a single out or go two innings. His consistency is a luxury that many teams don't have. Who's the throw-in now, Daisuke?

Takashi Saito:
Projection: 50 games, 52 IP, 3.09 ERA, 4-2 record, 20 saves
Actual: 56, 55.2, 2.43, 3-3, 2 saves

This one is more interesting: Saito's projections were based off what he would do if he were to stay the closer for the Dodgers. Clearly, when he came to Boston, his role changed: he didn't save games unless Paps wasn't available, and after Billy Wags came to town, forget it. However, his ERA was excellent for someone of his age and cost, and he exceeded expectations (numerically), even within the AL East.

Ramon Ramirez:
Projection:66 games, 67 IP, 3.74 ERA, 4-4 record, 1 save
Actual: 70, 69.2, 2.84, 7-4, 0

Again, Ramirez's projections were based on the assumption that he would be playing in Kansas City, yet he STILL exceeded all expectations across the board, even with the new pressures of a pennant race and a city that blows everything baseball-related out of proportions. Thanks, Coco!

Jonathan Papelbon:
Projection: 64 games, 71 IP, 2.04 ERA, 5-3 record, 41 saves
Actual: 66, 68, 1.85, 1-1, 38

Despite some shakiness in the first half, while he was "changing his mechanics," Paps had an extremely good year. His ERA was awesome, and despite the heart attacks, he converted his save opportunities more often than not. However, his most impressive stat is probably the combined 5,000 years he took off the lives of Sox fans everywhere.

(Daniel Bard and Billy Wagner are not listed in the 2009 Bill James Handbook)

Shipping Out of Boston?

This morning, on my way to class, I was gearing up to deal with Yankee-fan asshole-boy: I expected some sort of taunting remark, and I was prepared. Unfortunately, he foiled this plan by not saying anything to me about baseball at all - retort wasted (I was going to say something like "Now I know how you must have felt last year... Oh, wait, the Yankees didn't even MAKE the playoffs last year.").

When the professor came in, before he did anything else, he walked to the blackboard and wrote "PAPELBON." He then proceeded to circle the name, and draw a line through it, like a no smoking sign gone awry.

The class discussed the bizzare failures of some elite closers during this postseason, and then I committed blasphemy. I said that I could see Papelbon being traded this offseason. Then, from behind me, I heard a male voice say (in the most depreciating and belittling tone of voice in the history of the world), "Why?" He said it like suggesting Papelbon could be traded was equivalent to insisting that the world was flat.

Well, here it is, skeptical student of politics - all of the reasons Papelbon is not safe:

1.) He goes year to year in arbitration, rather than taking the security of a long-term deal. Theo doesn't like to overpay, and Papelbon will want more money than the Sox will be willing to give him when he's up for Free Agency in 2011. If we trade him now, we'll get something significant in return, and keeping him on is prolonging the inevitable: the Red Sox will not pay through the nose to keep him in the eventual bidding war.

2.) He's a closer, which means he is, by definition, fragile. Mariano Rivera is an anomaly: most closers have an extremely short shelf life. Paps changed his mechanics this year in an effort to lengthen his career, but if you recall, the Sox wanted him to go back to starting in 2007 because they were worried about the longevity of his arm. Jonathan then decided (as is his right) that he wanted to remain a closer. The organization is acutely aware that an electric closer is a short-lived commodity, and Theo is the king of buying low and selling high. Despite his meltdown in Game 3, Papelbon's value is extremely high right now.

3.) He seems to LIVE with his foot in his mouth. The Red Sox value talented players who don't cause too much drama, which makes sense, especially in a baseball hungry place like Boston, where everything is magnified tenfold. Papelbon can't seem to keep his mouth shut, whether he's calling Manny a "cancer in the clubhouse," talking about the money he deserves, saying he'd like to play for other teams, or a certain incident before last years All-Star Game...

(Bringing your pregnant wife along while you taunt Yankees fans IN NEW YORK is not the best plan.)

4.) The Red Sox have a possible closer waiting in the wings. Daniel Bard has a little more development to go through, but he proved he could be cool under pressure in that fateful Game 3. Bard came in with the bases loaded and none out, gave up just one run (on a double play ball), and escaped the inning (he also makes a sexy lion). Papelbon came in in the ninth (after struggling in the last of the eighth, and caved... which, for him, is an anomaly, but the point was made. Bard has the potential to be a closer, and it wouldn't shock me if Theo gave him that role next year, with Oki as a contingency plan for the inevitable growing pains.

(RAWRRR.... [via @flaxenmanes])

5.) Papelbon opens a lot of otherwise locked doors when it comes to trade possibilities. Despite how frequently the term "untouchable" gets thrown around, there are few players that are actually off-limits for the right package. For instance, Felix Hernadez would drive a hard bargain, but for Paps and Buch (and some other minor prospects), it might get done. If I'm Theo, I consider that. If Paps could get us Adrian Gonzales, or Prince Fielder, you look into that. Imagine Zach Greinke in Boston? I'm drooling just thinking about it.

Papelbon is a fan favorite, often for antics like this one:

(Ahhh, 2007: those were the days...)

Or this one:

(You just know he's thinking something like "Now everyone can SEE that I have sex with this woman... Look how MANLY I am!")

But the bottom line is this: it would not shock me in the slightest if Theo decided it was time to Ship Paps right out of Boston.

In Theo I Trust.

While I was driving back to Hartford, I was listening to WEEI, and heard them discussing possible trade packages that would bring King Felix Hernandez to Boston... Combinations like Jonathan Papelbon, Clay Buchholz, and Michael Bowden were thrown around.

And then, the kicker: "If you were Theo Epstein, would you even consider that possibility?"

Ummm... What? Theo entertains EVERY possibility. That is his job. No matter how far-fetched, you can bet out GM has looked into it.

Here, for instance, Theo discusses Roy Halladay for a pack of Big-League Chew and Javier Lopez with good friend JP Ricciardi.

We've come to appreciate Theo's style: covet your prospects; don't be afraid of a trade; don't get into bidding wars.

Just take a look at this year's postseason rotation: Lester, Beckett, Buchholz. Jon and Clay are products of the player development machine, and another homegrown talent (Hanley Ramirez), brought Beckett to town. Prospects are a valuable commodity, and the development team that Theo has put together continuously turns out good ones.

Everyone remembers Nomar: fan favorite, but causing unneeded drama in the clubhouse, accompanied by declining production. Theo shipped him off to Chicago at the deadline, cementing the roster of the eventual 2004 World Series Champions. Flash forward to 2008: Manny Ramirez heads to LA, Jason Bay comes to Boston, and prospects go to Pittsburgh (do the Pirates LIKE being a farm team for the rest of MLB?). That team came within one game of the World Series, and with a healthy Mike Lowell, might have gone further.

Last winter was an exception: Mark Teixeira was everything Theo looks for in a player (excluding the neurotic wife) - OBP, power, defense, relative youth. When it became clear that Boras and Leigh successfully drove Mark to the Bronx, Theo went with several low-risk, high-reward players... Not all of them worked out, but with some shrewd dealing at the deadline (hello, Gonzo and VMart), the Red Sox won their targeted 95 games and went to the playoffs.

The accepted sabremetric description of the playoffs is that they're essentially a crapshoot... This year didn't turn out so well, but everyone needs to calm down. Sure, the roster needs some tweaks, but Theo will make them. The 2010 Red Sox will be competitive: in Theo I Trust, and you should too.

Nine Offseason Questions

I went out to dinner tonight, and, in a bar full of Red Sox memorabilia, watched the first innings of the Phillies/Rockies game (guess they got all the snow off Coors Field). It felt wrong, but I have to face the music: the Red Sox season is over. So what's a girl to do for three plus months until Spring Training? I don't even get the MLBNetwork at school, so I'll revert to my offseason basket case self: obsessively checking Sox sites and blogs, and rereading all of my baseball books. To kick off the offseason (tragically early), here are my top nine problems for Theo and the Sox this Hot Stove season.

1. Jason Bay: As everyone not in a coma knows, the Red Sox leftfielder is a free agent this offseason. He and his agents were unable to come to an agreement with the Sox during the season, but Bay seems like a reasonable guy who has enjoyed playing for a contender. Theo's not going to overpay, but I'd say something like four years, $60 million should get things done.

2. The revolving door at the shortstop position: It's no secret that shortstop has been a bit of a problem since about... ohhh... 2005? Now, most of the fans I've talked too support picking up Alex Gonzalez's $6 million option for next season, but Theo recently made comments on WEEI that insinuated he is less than impressed. Gonzo has hit very well with us, but above his usual production. I've heard rumors about Stephen Drew (JD's younger brother, currently with the Diamondbacks), who is just Theos type. Throughout his career, his strikeout numbers have consistently declined, while the walks have steadily increased. I would be okay with another Drew on the team.

3. What's going to happen behind the plate: It's no secret that Captain Varitek had a BRUTAL second half. We can only assume the team will decline to pick up his $5 million option, but Jason has a player option he can activate for $3 million. I for one hope Varitek sees the light, swallows his pride, and calls it a career: the Sox would do well to hire him as a coach, though he's said in the past that coaching doesn't interest him. Victor Martinez had an electric bat for the Red Sox down the stretch, but he's essentially a younger Varitek: good game calling skills, good repertoire with the pitching staff, quality bat for a backstop, but not so good at throwing out basestealers. VMart has a club option, and I'm guessing that Theo will pick it up, while poking around for other possibilities... Joe Mauer would be the definition of a long shot, but a girl can dream, right?

4. The aging meat of the lineup: David Ortiz will be thirty-four next season (if you're cynical, like me, you might speculate he's a bit older, like many Dominican players), while Mikey Lowell turns thirty-six in February. Mike's bat looked fine this season, but his range was severely diminished due to the labrum surgery he had last offseason; the rest he had down the stretch seemed to help, but he didn't like sitting. Papi managed to finish with almost respectable numbers, but looked positively anemic in the short ALDS. We need both of them at their best, or the lineup won't be nearly deep enough.

5. Who's manning the bench: Baldelli was signed to a one-year deal last year, and he's been less than dependable. Kotchman plays a steady first base, but if Lowell can't go every day we'll need someone really good to hold down first base while Youk slides to third. I trust Theo will find a gem somewhere.

6. The back of the rotation: Tim Wakefield is forty-three years old, with a balky back, and minor shoulder problems. While the shoulder issue is old news (Wake plans to have it surgically repaired after he retires), the back is more problematic. However, Tim isn't the type to come back if he doesn't feel he can contribute, but if he can get the back fixed, I'd say he's as good an option (for the first half, anyway) as anyone, and at $4 million, it's reasonable.

7. What's going on with the bullpen: Obviously, Paps picked a TERRIBLE time to have a meltdown, but he's still a premier closer. In the same game that Cinco Ocho besmirched his postseason ERA, Daniel Bard proved he could be cool under pressure: coming into a bases loaded situation with no outs in an elimination game, and giving up just one run (on a double play ball). If the Sox development machine thinks Bard is ready to be a closer, I wouldn't be shocked if Theo traded the bigmouthed Papelbon for a big bat (Prince Fielder is rumored to be available).

8. Daisuke's offseason regimen: Matsuzaka came into camp in terrible shape, and then there was that public disagreement with the Red Sox strengthening program. However, he seemed genuinely contrite when he got back from the Disabled List in September. I'd like to think he'll be more responsible this winter... otherwise, I say the Japanese WBC team can pay his salary.

9. Tito's health: This one went under the radar this season, but the manager is far from perfectly healthy. I have nothing but the highest esteem for the Red Sox manager, and I know he'll use the offseason to get himself rested and ready for next year... But how long is he going to hold out? Is John Farrell staying on in his job as pitching coach because he knows that Tito is planning to step down in the next few years? This is wild speculation, but you have to admit, it makes sense...

Nuf Ced...

Forget Jerry Remy, Michael "Nuf Ced" McGreevey was the original President of Red Sox Nation. Back in the day, before Fenway Park and the Great Bambino, back when the Olde Towne Team was referred to as the Boston Americans, McGreevey owned the original sports bar in the greatest sports town in America: Third Base Saloon, named so because "it was the last place you stopped before home." McGreevey was the founder of the Royal Rooters, the first organized baseball fan club in the world, and was the most intensely loyal fan the team ever had.

Most modern day fans have only heard of Michael McGreevey because of the tremendously popular "Tessie" by the Dropkick Murphys:

Tessie, Nuf Ced McGreevey shouted

We're not here to mess around

Boston, you know we love you madly

"Tessie," was a Broadway song that was the rallying cry of McGreevey's Royal Rooters, and was most famously sung so boisterously by the troupe during the first World Series in 1903 that it distracted the opposing Pittsburgh Pirates enough for Boston's team to rally and take the series.

Now, McGreevey and his Rooters lived in a golden age of Boston Baseball - the Americans/Red Sox won the World Series in 1903, 1912, 1915, 1916, and 1918 - but you can bet he'd be ashamed to see the fairweather fans of today.

Today's loss was hard to take [understatement of the year]. After the final out, I got up, called my dogs, walked them down to the river, and sat there for more than an hour. When I had collected myself [and gotten uncomfortably cold], I returned to my house and made fudge [coping mechanism]. There are as many ways to cope as there are fans, but those who malign the Angels are poor sports at best. The Angels did their jobs. The Red Sox did not. As heartbreaking as that is, it's the truth: our closer had a meltdown at a critical moment, after proving his mettle in countless high-pressure situations.

Nuf Ced would roll over in his grave to see so-called diehards behaving this way. You always cheer on your team, but should also applaud worthy opponents. Just because we have dispatched the Angels in quick fashion in recent October memory does not mean it is our birthright.

This loss was hard to stomach, but some of the reactions are even worse: Sox fans are acting like spoiled children who feel they deserve October glory. If you want to behave in that manner, go cheer for the Yankees - Red Sox Nation doesn't need you.

I Blame CB Bucknor.

Early this morning, I was on Twitter and saw libbycrews blaming the Red Sox for oversleeping... So, being the irrational Red Sox fan that I am proud to be, I told her to blame infamous umpire CB Bucknor instead.

When I returned to the site later this evening, fangsbites and Gabs10272004 had replied, blaming Bucknor for such things as overindulgance at the bar, the botched 2000 election, communism, global warming, and gout. This got me thinking: what else can we blame Bucknor for?

Bucknor was:

the spark that caused the Hindenburg combustion.

the iceburg that sunk the Titanic.

the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs.

the drought that triggered the Dust Bowl.

the money that paid off the Black Sox.

the crash that kicked off the Great Depression.

the volcanic eruption that buried Pompei.

the rats that carried the bubonic plague.

Your suggestions are welcome!

After this was first posted, the CB Bucknor Twitter account had this to say:

cbbucknor @toesinthesand82 @LoveSox15 -- i'll admit it, I thought that iceberg was high and away, so I didn't bother to turn the titanic. my bad.