Twenty-three for me... Please?

I want an Adrian Gonzalez jersey. Right now. Unfortunately, as I mentioned yesterday, the first baseman's presumptive number is currently worn by outfielder Mike Cameron, who has no obligation to give it up (other than being slightly vilified by a rabid and excited fan base).

For all intents and purposes, Cameron has already agreed to give up #23 to Gonzalez for a small donation to charity, but these things have to be official. What does all this mean for fans? Nothing, unless you're like me and itching to get your hands on a Gonzalez jersey.

Neither the Red Sox online store through MLB nor the Yawkey Way store has Gonzalez T-shirts or jerseys on sale yet. So what, you might ask, they have the customize your own option. This is what I assumed, but apparently MLB has a rule that you're not allowed to use the name of a player on another team on your jersey.

Okay, but what about the guy who wants HIS name and HIS number on a jersey, and he happens to be named Gonzalez. Not exactly an uncommon name.

But I digress. The point of this is simply to implore MLB to get its act together and put those AGon jerseys on their (virtual) shelves in time for the holidays - and Hanukkah ends tomorrow night. It's not like MLB to pass up on money-making, and this one is a no-brainer: get on it, Selig!

Yo, Adrian [Gonzalez]!

It's official. Adrian Gonzalez (who, according to baseball-reference, has no middle name) is a Boston Red Sox. I've been pinching myself all day, and this is no dream - I can hardly contain myself.

I watched the press conference this morning (which started late, shocking), and was entertained and intrigued by turns. It's obvious that the Red Sox front office has coveted Gonzalez for years, almost to the point that Theo was more of a stalker than a scout. The baseball numbers are promising to say the least, and Boston.com's Extra Bases posted a very revealing graphic this afternoon:

[Click the graphic for the link]

Because Gonzalez has been hitting in Petco Park for the last five years, his numbers are an understatement - and they were nothing to sneeze at to begin with. The Padres ballpark is where doubles go to die, as illustrated by the graph above, which plots the location of Gonzalez's batted balls last year and overlays them in Fenway Park. As you can see, there are at least "15 balls at Petco that would have been hits at Fenway and most of those would have been for extra bases."

I'm sure most of you are aware that the lefthanded slugger was playing through some pain last year... I can't wait to see what Gonzalez will be able to do in a friendly ballpark when he's healthy.

Aside from that, I'm confident that Gonzalez will fit into the clubhouse with no trouble at all: he seems like a quiet, friendly, confident guy, and as Mike Cameron pointed out, it doesn't hurt that he's bilingual.

He also already has an impressive grasp on what it takes to be embraced by the fans of New England (being a top player doesn't hurt). Gonzalez had quite a few quotable quips during the presser, but the two that come most quickly to mind cover subjects near and dear to the heart of any true Boston fan. The first? "I'm very excited to be here in Boston. And I'm ready to beat the Yanks."

Slam. Dunk. Put down the Evil Empire and I'm with you. If that wasn't enough, he lavished praise on Ted Williams, and then mentioned that his "good friend" Dave Roberts had nothing but good to say about the Red Sox and their fans. Swoon:


The biggest controversy so far seems to be over jersey number. Gonzalez wore #23 in San Diego, but it currently belongs to Sox outfielder Mike Cameron. Cameron had initially wanted #25 or #44 when he came over, but #25 was Mikey Lowell's, and the memory of Jason Bay as #44 was still fresh in everyone's mind. Now, it's conceivable that Cameron will take #25, and give #23 to Gonzalez in if the new first baseman will make a donation to a Boys and Girls Club (via Boston.com).

So when can I get one of these jerseys? They're not on the Yawkey Way or Redsox.com online shops, and I was hoping to ask for one for Christmas. Hurry it up, MLB - you're losing money, and we all know that's not your style.

Yes, this is really happening...

More later.

The Red Sox are not cheap.

Remember this guy? Proof.

The Marlins are cheap. The Rays are cheap. The Pirates are downright Scrooge-like. If I hear one more Red Sox fan bemoaning the "fact" that the Sox front office is "too cheap" to sign Adrian Gonzalez, I'm going to scream in frustration.

The problem in these talks is not money. It's never money, unless the Yankees are involved, because we all know Midas himself couldn't outbid the Junior Steinbrenners. No, the Red Sox are not afraid to overpay in dollars for talent (for proof, look no further than the draft bonuses that they've given out in recent years), but they are afraid of overpaying in terms of years.

This makes sense. Think back to when the Sox signed Manny Ramirez, way back in December of 2000. The slugging outfielder was given a guaranteed eight years, with two team options for 2009 and 2010, with a total value of $160 million, plus bonuses for the usual things (MVP, ASG, etc.). I think you know where this is going, but the front office had soured on Manny by 2006, and even the fans were tired of his act by 2008. He was shipped off to Mannywood in LA, the Sox got Jason Bay, and the rest is history.

The moral of the story is, of course, that you can never anticipate what a player will look like in three years, let alone eight. I would never venture to guess that Adrian Gonzalez has the kind of ego and make up issues that Ramirez does, but the point stands: the Red Sox are cautious in giving out long contracts, because they've been down that road before, and it doesn't end well.

I know that AGon is crazily consistent (I posted about it yesterday, in fact), but you never know when he'll break a few ribs in a freak accident a la Jeremy Hermida and Jacoby Ellsbury, or foul a ball off his foot like Pedey, and he might never be the same.

I can totally support the front office standing firm on this issue, because they value roster flexibility, and handing out crazy-long deals isn't conducive to that kind of strategy.

All that said, SI's Jon Heyman is reporting that a deal DID get done, and the press conference will be tomorrow. Hopefully, the terms make sense for both sides.

Adrian Gonzalez to Boston

As I'm sure you've all heard by now, Adrian Gonzalez is headed to the Red Sox. The slugging first baseman will cost the Sox three of their most highly touted prospects, Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Rey Fuentes, but you have to give up value to get value in return.

Also, it's possible that one or all of the minor leaguers going to San Diego will never reach their potential, and the Red Sox are getting about as close as you can to a sure thing in baseball. Gonzalez was in Boston today getting a physical (he had surgery in October after playing through some pain in the later parts of the 2010 season), and the deal will be official as soon as the Red Sox and agent John Boggs can work on a contract extension.

Fun Fact: A-Gon played in Portland for the Double-A Seadogs when they were a Marlins farm team.

Adrian Gonzalez is a premier player entering into the prime of his career. The former Padre is twenty-eight years old, and in his seven MLB seasons (2 partial, 5 total), his numbers look like this: .284 BA, .368 OBP, 168 home runs, .511 SLG, and 525 RBI.

Bill James projects 2011 to be a typically great year for Gonzalez: 161 games played, .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG, 33 home runs, and 102 RBIs. It's also important to keep in mind that James calculated these predictions under the assumption that Gonzalez would be playing 81 games in the cavernous Petco Park, and that his numbers will most likely improve in the friendly confines of Fenway.

Current members of the Red Sox roster are excited to have Gonzalez join them. Daniel Bard, after being reassured that the deal did not include him, was enthusiastic, and Dustin Pedroia had nothing but praise for the All-Star: "I'm excited to play alongside him. It's going to be fun. When you hear his name for three years, something might happen. It's awesome to happen now. We picked up a player who's one of the best hitters in the game, so everyone's excited. We've got an All-Star. He's outstanding. We're excited and I think everyone's pumped to get to spring training and start everything."

Tim Wakefield, the grizzled veteran, acknowleged the long-term nature of the deal, noting that after a few years of discussion between the Padres and Sox, the trade has "finally some to fruition. It's a great addition to our club. Not only are we getting a quality player but we're also getting a quality guy." I don't know about you, but I trust Wake's opinion when it comes to class acts.

Obviously, this means that the Red Sox will not be bringing back the other Adrian, Mr. Beltre, despite his amazing 2010 performance for Boston at the hot corner. However, this does mean that the Red Sox will be awarded compensation picks for Beltre, Victor Martinez, and Felipe Lopez, meaning that they'll have five total picks in the first round and the sandwich round between the first and second rounds. This is nothing to sneeze at, especially since Theo has been very successful with drafting, and the 2011 draft class is projected to be very deep.

All in all, this is a fantastic move. I couldn't be happier, and I was itching all day to blog about it, and to get your reactions. Do you think this makes up for letting Victor Martinez walk? What kind of extension do you think Gonzalez will see? Do you expect the Sox to go after Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford as well?


[All quotes from this post are from Boston.com's Extra Bases blog; credit to Peter Abraham and the Globe staff]

10 Bizaare Gifts for a Red Sox Fan

It's that time of year again, Red Sox Nation, and regardless of your religious affiliation (or lack thereof), you will likely be expected to participate in some gift-giving. So what can you get for your fellow fan if you want to be truly creative? Thanks to some perusing of the redsox.com team store, I've gathered 10 of the strangest Sox related items out there... and I'd be willing to bet they're available for the 29 other teams as well, since MLB doesn't exactly pass up chances to get revenue.
A Red Sox tree face. Because a regular tree with a face on it just isn't creepy enough, now you can traumatize the neighborhood children AND show your team spirit! Go Sox!

A Red Sox bird feeder. In case you were worried that some of your feathered friends might be fans of the evil empire, you can set them straight with this. It should be particularly helpful to confused birds in rivalry border states like Connecticut.

I understand that dogs of a certain size need outerwear in New England winters, but I think the leather sleeves might be taking it a tad too far... In any case, Fenway, Tessie, or Papi should be warm for winter in this outfit (I made my sister name her dog Beckett).

For anyone who ever wanted tiny little batting helmets sticking out of their ears, this is the item for you. Be aware, however, that for $14.99 these might not have the best sound quality. Also, you'll have helmets sticking out of your ears.

I have absolutely no idea why you would ever want this, but if you're looking for a useless but expensive gift, you can go with the regulation size, handcrafted, crystal bat.

This holiday season, let your child snuggle up with a giant Fenway Frank. It's every kid's dream!

Stylish. I think they should give these out at the gates of Fenway for the entire crowd to put on when we're behind.

Whose idea was this, anyway? Hey, babysitters, if the kids won't sit still and watch the puppet show, you can punch them in the face, and blame it on the doll! For the violent superfan.

Okay, I kind of want this one.

I know what you're thinking: a pen? Really? Well, as you can see by the title, it's not a pen... It's a "Writing Instrument," and it can be yours for the low price of $184.99. Really.

Happy gift-giving, everyone, and I promise to be back to baseball posts ASAP.

2011 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Rotation

Yesterday we established that the 2010 version of the Red Sox performed at a poorer than expected level because of pitching, and not (exclusively) injuries. This was particularly surprising because the rotation was the one thing we all figured we wouldn't have to worry about: Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, and Matsuzaka - and we even had Wakefield, who, despite his age and lack of consistency, is a hell of a sixth man.

However, there were injuries to Beckett and Matsuzaka, and Lackey was rather less productive than we'd collectively hoped (I suppose you could say he was LACKing - get it?!?). The bullpen was a volitile mess, especially if you look at their performance without counting the stats from Bard and Paps (who had his worst season, but still superior to most relievers).

So what's in store for next year? No one can know for sure, but the Bill James Handbook at least offers predictions based on math I don't really understand, rather than total guesses pulled out of thin air.

So, without further ado, here are James' predictions for members of the presumptive pitchers for the 2011 Sox (accompanied by their 2010 numbers):

Josh Beckett:2010: 6-6, 21 starts, 127.2 IP, 5.78 ERA
2011 prediction: 10-9, 26 starts, 168 IP, 3.86 ERA
Beckett's lost season was a HUGE part of the reason the Sox missed out on the playoffs in 2010, and even a reasonable bounce back like the one James is predicting would give the Red Sox a fantastic edge.

Clay Buchholz:2010: 17-7, 28 starts, 173.2 IP, 2.33 ERA
2011 prediction: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA
I'm going to go on record here and guess that James is underestimating Clay. The dominance we saw last season was not a fluke, and I'm confident Buchholz can be consistent in 2011. There's a reason Theo hasn't accepted any trade offers for Clay, and what we saw last year was just the beginning.

John Lackey:2010: 14-11, 33 starts, 215 IP, 4.40 ERA
2011 prediction: 13-12, 33 starts, 227 IP, 3.89 ERA
When I actually saw Lackey's 2010 stats, I have to confess to being a bit surprised that he was such an innings-eater. If he can live up to these predictions as the third/fourth starter, I will be content.

Daisuke Matsuzaka:2010: 9-6, 25 starts, 153.2 IP, 4.69 ERA
2011 prediction: 10-9, 27 starts, 173 IP, 3.85 ERA
Again, I'll take it. No, Matsuzaka has never been the ace we thought we were getting way back in the offseason of 2007, but (aside from his lost 2009) he's been more than adequate for the back of the rotation, and I expect he'll continue to be consistent(ly infuriating to watch).

Jon Lester:2010: 19-9, 32 starts, 208 IP, 3.25 ERA
2011 prediction: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA
I think Lester will do better than this, especially if he can figure out how to avoid the awful April we've come to expect from him. James badly underestimated Lester in his predictions for 2010, and I think he's cut the southpaw short again this year.

Tim Wakefield:2010:4-10, 19 starts, 130 IP 5.34 ERA
2011 predictions: 6-6, 14 starts, 115 IP, 4.07 ERA
If Wake gets to start at all in 2011, it will be spot starts here and there. The knuckleballer's career is winding down, and though it's hard to say goodbye, this season will likely be his last.

I'm going to leave the relievers out of this equation for now, since roles and such will be in flux, and the Sox bullpen is likely going to see some serious revamping before Opening Day (which is MUCH too far away). But, if the members of the rotation listed above can match their projections (and if one or two of them *cough*Buchholz*Lester*cough* can exceed them), I think 2011 will be a much more productive year for the Sox, at least pitching-wise.