Josh, Jon, and John: Three Aces?

Like many of you, I follow several baseball sites, both on Twitter and Facebook, and I have more than a few bookmarked on my web browser. Many of them are primarily about the Red Sox, but I do follow a fair amount that cover all of MLB, and I saw an interesting argument popping up on Facebook this evening over the best rotation in baseball.

Being the homer I am proud to be, I would obviously say the Red Sox, but I'm willing to listen to debate. However, one of the posters contended that the Red Sox didn't have even one legitimate ace, but three #2 pitchers. This is, at best, absurd. Let's look at the numbers of the Red Sox top 3 starters, shall we?

Joshua Patrick Beckett:


Career: 206 (average) IP, 108-68 (.609 W-L%), 3.79 ERA, 1330 SO
2009: 212.1 IP, 17-6 (.739 W-L%), 3.86 ERA, 199 SO
2010 Bill James Projection: 221 IP, 15-9, 3.62 ERA, 206 SO
Most similar pitcher: John Lackey

Jonathan Tyler Lester:


Career: 207 (average) IP, 42-16 (.724 W-L%), 3.66 ERA, 487 SO
2009: 203.1 IP, 15-8 (.652 W-L%), 3.41 ERA, 225 SO
2010 Bill James Projection: 206 IP, 13-10, 3.84 ERA, 184 SO
Most similar pitcher by age: Johan Santana (!)

John Derran Lackey:


Career: 219 (average) IP, 102-71 (.590 W-L%), 3.81 ERA, 1201 SO
2009: 176.1 IP, 11-8 (.579 W-L%), 3.83 ERA, 139 SO
2010 Bill James Projections: 208 IP, 13-10, 3.81 ERA, 166 SO
Most similar pitcher: Josh Beckett

Now, let's compare these numbers to those of the best pitcher in MLB, one we can ALL agree is a bona fide ACE:

Harry Leroy Halladay [I guess we know why he goes by "Roy," eh?]:


Career: 232 (average) IP, 148- 76 (.661 W-L%), 3.43 ERA, 1495 SO
2009: 239 IP, 17-10 (.630 W-L%), 2.79 ERA, 208 SO
2010 Bill James Projection: 240 IP, 17-10, 3.23 ERA, 179 SO
Most similar pitcher: Tim Hudson

Clearly, a pitcher doesn't have to measure up to Roy Halladay to be an ace, because if that was the case, he would be the only one. So what makes an "ace?" All three of the Red Sox players in question have won clinching games of the World Series (all, interestingly enough, at age 23): Beckett for the 2003 Marlins , Lester for the 2007 Red Sox, and Lackey for the 2002 Angels. Now, you can't hold that against Halladay, as he was stuck in purgatory, pitching for the Blue Jays. However, credit must be given to the three in question for pitching so well, at such a young age, in high-pressure situations.

As far as straight-up statistics go, Jon Lester is probably the ace of the Red Sox staff, regardless of his actual position in the rotation. [It is interesting to note that Bill James, while very accurate in his predictions for Lackey and Beckett, severely underestimated Lester last year.] Lackey and Beckett are almost carbon copies of each other statistically, and either could be the number one pitcher on nearly 2/3 of MLB teams, while I would take Lester against just about anyone in baseball.

Are all three of the Red Sox top starters aces? Maybe not. But there's no way in hell you can label all three of them #2's - especially in what might be a contract year for Beckett (or a year when he has to prove he deserves his extension). In any case, the fact that we can even be having this conversation is exciting... Is it Sunday yet?

Optimism or Idiocy?

According to this Boston.com poll (screengrabbed by me), there are 28 people out there who think that the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to win the NL Central. In case you were wondering, the last time Pittsburgh had a winning season of any kind was nearly twenty years ago, in 1992 (96-66), when some guy named Tim Wakefield was on the team. The best the Pirates have done since then was 1997, when they went 79-83.

I appreciate the optimism (or morbid humor attempt) by those 28 fans, but in recent years the best thing to be said of the Pirates is that they serve as a wonderful farm system for the other 29 teams. In a state of perpetual rebuilding, the once-proud franchise routinely ships off their only good player in exchange for a few prospects... and once those prospects have developed, the process begins anew!


It's too bad, but at least Pittsburgh has the Steelers and Penguins to tide them over for the foreseeable future: if the Pirates win the NL Central, I'll eat Jim Leyland's awesome Pirates hat.

Not-So-Big Papi?

Today was the first day of classes after Spring Break, and there were some glitches, as always. I'm the TA for a 9am class, and after a phone call from the professor warning me that he would be late, I showed up to find out that the classroom was locked, even to the professor when he fought his way through traffic. So, while waiting for maintenance, you might think we would talk about the course material (American Government). I'm sorry to tell you that assumption would be false: we talked about baseball, of course!

I was (not unusually) the only female involved in the discussion, which was interesting to say the least. My classmates have some definitive opinions, the most memorable of which was "Papi's done. The guy sucks."

On one hand, the speaker (who had spent his break at Spring Training) had something of a point: David Ortiz's career is clearing winding down, and as much as he protests he has something left, his Spring numbers have been less than encouraging (.224 BA with 3 HRs in 49 ABs). However, as Tito has mentioned multiple times, Spring Training numbers don't mean too much, and Papi had a monster stretch run last season - if you predicted that he would finish with 28 bombs and 99 RBIs after that atrocious start, I'm going to start calling you Nostradamus.

As David's shirt says: "It's not how you start... But how you finish."

Ortiz is in a tough spot: Theo has made it clear that the Red Sox will not be as patient with him this year, and if fans are ready to categorically dismiss him, that's not a good sign. When I heard my classmate disparage Papi this morning, it made me sad. First, because it was part of an overall gripe about a "weak" lineup, which I've already addressed, but mostly because I'm not ready to let go of the old David Ortiz.

Lest you forget, David Ortiz is the most clutch hitter in Red Sox history - and he has the hardware to prove it.

David Ortiz was one of the twenty-five. The men that should never have to buy a drink in New England again. And Ortiz wasn't some bench guy or role player - he delivered some of the most memorable postseason hits in the 21st century, on the way to breaking an 86-year-old "curse."

Maybe Papi's productive days are over. Perhaps he can't play at the level necessary to help the 2010 version of the Boston Red Sox. But even if that's true, he deserves our respect. Are we so short-sighted that we'll forget what he did for us? I'm not advocating for Tito to play him if he isn't up to par, but he deserves to go out with some dignity. Personally, I'm hoping he has an adequate year, then rides off into the sunset - perhaps with another ring to show for it.

Athletes as Role Models?

Americans have always had an insatiable love affair with exceptional storylines, and professional athletes are not immune to the effects of this phenomenon. Athletes were not always role models in American society, but somewhere along the line that changed: great talent on the field is now expected to translate into great willpower, charity, and demeanor off the field. Due to the rise in modern media exposure and certain organizational rules athletes (role models) have lost their individuality and become commodities.



I'm currently working on a project for an American Studies class that concerns the idea of professional athletes as role models, and I'm curious as to what some of you might have to say on the subject. The above paragraph was the intro to the project proposal I submitted to my professor last week, and part of the project entails some polling of sports fans. Obviously, my readers are my very favorite sports fans, so I though I would give you first crack at answering some questions:



*Do you feel that the public (and, to a certain extent, the media) puts unreasonable expectations on the shoulders of professional athletes?



*Has this phenomenon worsened in recent years?



*How does this affect professional athletics as a whole?



Any opinion you have on the matter would be much appreciated, either in the comments, via Twitter, or via email (found in my profile).





The project encompasses all of professional sports, so if you'd rather spout off about Mike Tyson or Tiger Woods than Joba Chamberlain and Miguel Tejada, feel free, and I look forward to reading your responses!

My Apologies...

I'm sorry I've been MIA for the last few days.... and I'm equally sorry to tell you that it's only going to get worse. It's Spring Break, and while I'd simply LOVE so be jetting off to Ft. Myers, I'm running on a college student's budget, so travel will be limited to a week-long backpacking trip on the Appalachian Trail (Pennsylvania area). Thus, I will not have access to a computer from Sunday to Saturday, and will not be able to blog.

However, I promise you all some great long posts when I get back, and some hiking pictures with a great view! Until we meet again, enjoy this picture:

Image taken from a video on MLB.com, and screengrabbed by me. I hope my eventual children are this cool.

Photo of the Day

As teams all over MLB had their photo shoots for programs, commercials, and the like, there were bound to be a few goofballs in the bunch. Old friend Coco Crisp, now with the A's after an injury-marred season in Kansas City, is on the left, and Padres pitcher Heath Bell is on the right.

If you're looking for some Red Sox shenanigans, check out this video of our boys making some bloopers. I have to say, the part when Mikey Lowell opines, "It's not meant to be," made me a little sad, but good old Pedey comes through again with a laugh at the end.

Seriously, Daisuke?

In the least shocking news of Spring Training, Daisuke Matsuzaka's batting practice session as postponed yet again, though he did throw 19 pitches in the bullpen, according to Boston.com.

And so that old adage proves itself more than true once again: you can never have too much pitching. There were a lot of questions this offseason about what the Red Sox were going to do with six fully capable big-league starters, and speculation was wild, with suggestions ranging from sending the now 25-year-old Clay Buchholz to Pawtucket to start the season to relegating aging knuckleballer Tim Wakefield to the bullpen.

Wakefield was confident that he would find his way into the rotation to open the year, answering a question about his place on the roster if everyone was healthy with a query of his own: "When does that ever happen?" You guys know by now how I feel about the wily veteran, who has played for the Sox for more than 75% of my life, so I'll spare you the gushing praise.

Love, love, LOVE.

However, I'm more than a little fed up with Daisuke at this point, and I suspect you all might have similar feelings. When he came to the club back in 2007, his arrival was documented with more enthusiasm than Nixon's first trip to China, and he did reasonably well that year, and exceeded expectation's in 2008, before suffering a lost season of sorts last year. Now, in an attempt to rectify the lack of communication of a year ago, he's reporting injury after injury, putting him weeks behind the other starters.


Don't get me wrong, if Matsuzaka is hurting, I want him to get the treatment he needs. However, if this is what we're getting for $100 million, I can't be the only one who's a little exasperated.