Victor Martinez to the Tigers

The first major event of the Red Sox offseason is imminent, and it's not the news any of us were hoping for. No, Theo didn't manage to trade for Adrian Gonzalez or Elvis Andrus, or perform a miracle and sign Cliff Lee (at least, not yet). Sadly, the first big-name signing this offseason involves the Detroit Tigers winning the services of former Sox catcher Victor Martinez.

According to MLB.com, the Tigers offered VMart four years and $50 million, and that was enough. We know that Martinez was rather miffed that the Sox didn't extend him before the 2010 season, a la Josh Beckett, or even during the season, despite Theo's well-documented dislike of carrying on contract discussions in-season.

At first glance, this looks bad. Catastrophic, even, since the Red Sox are left with the mostly-untried Jarrod Saltalamacchia and (possibly) the ever-aging Jason Varitek. However, there are reasons for the choice to not retain Martinez - and trust me, this was a CHOICE on Theo's part.

The Red Sox aren't sure how long Victor can continue to be an effective backstop, and his defense behind the plate has never been spectacular, despite some strides in that area in 2010. For a catcher, VMart is extremely effective with the bat, but once he has to make the inevitable transition to first base (or DH), his numbers will be league-average at best. The Red Sox are currently overpaying an aging designated hitter, and it's not a position that they like to be in.

According to boston.com's Extra Bases blog, the Red Sox offered Martinez two separate contracts: "three years and $36 million or four years and $42 million," but neither seemed to be enough for the soon-to-be 32-year-old, as he took Detroit's offer instead.

Before everyone storms Fenway Park's front office with their torches and pitchforks, please take a second to understand that Theo Epstein always has reasons for signing the players he does, and letting others walk - and usually, the reasons are good (excepting at the shortstop position). With Martinez's presumptive salary off the books, the Red Sox have a great deal of wiggle room for their 2011 payroll. They will also doubtless offer Victor arbitration, and thus receive two draft picks for him, as he is a Type A free agent.

This could be the non-deal that allows the Sox to go out and sign a Carl Crawford, or a Jayson Werth, and which could potentially give them the freedom to part with some prospects (and someone like Jacoby Ellsbury) for Adrian Gonzalez.

It's important to remember how things have panned out in recent years when Theo has allowed a Red Sox free agent to walk. Jason Bay came off a great season for the Sox and had a terrible, injury-plagued season for the Mets (though he would have fit in with the walking wounded at Fenway). Pedro Martinez was a shell of his former self by the middle of his deal, post-Sox. Nomar Garciaparra, anyone? (Okay, so that was a trade, but he was never the same.)

I trust Theo. Almost unconditionally. In fact, I might believe in him more than I do my friends and family (probably a problem in my personal relationships). I believe he has a plan, that he will leave no stone unturned, and that ultimately, he'll put a great team on the field in 2011. All they have to do is stay healthy...

Viva King Felix!!!

Seattle's Felix Hernandez took the American League Cy Young Award this week, and despite all the whining from the peanut gallery (ahem, New York and Tampa), King Felix was the right choice.

Obviously, with a record of 13-12, Hernandez wasn't even in the running in terms of wins, but we did learn from last year's winner (Zack Greinke) that the voters are beginning to understand that wins are by no means the most important statistic. If fact, wins are completely subjective; a pitcher could literally have a 0.00 ERA with no hits, walks, or hit batsmen, and end his season with zero wins.

On the other hand, it's conceivable that a player could have an ERA over 5 and win twenty games. Neither of these scenarios are likely, of course, but that fact that they are technically possible should set the alarm bells off in your brain: wins are practically useless as a statistic.

Felix Hernandez had the lowest ERA in the league (just .06 runs better than our own Clay Buchholz) at 2.27, and the highest WAR (6.0), all while pitching more innings than anyone in the American League.

Of course, the whining coming out of New York and Tampa Bay is predictable, since they can claim the third and second-place players, but the reasoning behind their arguments is bordering on absurd:

Keith, I expected better from you, but I guess I'll have to ask you to leave the sports talk to those who have done the research and actually UNDERSTAND the statistics. You could just as easily argue that Price and Sabathia (I presume he was referring to them) actually had the benefit of knowing a good lineup - a PENNANT CALIBER lineup, if you will - would bail them out if they turned in an occasional stinker. Hernandez? Not so much. HE was pressured to give up ZERO runs every time he pitched, and STILL not always get the win.

I also had someone make the argument that Price should have won because "he was young and carried the team on his back." Umm, okay... except King Felix is YOUNGER THAN PRICE, and Price was responsible for 19.7% of the Rays' total wins, while Hernandez was responsible for 21.3% of the Mariners' total wins.

So I guess the point here is this: despite the fact that the BBWAA has learned that there's more to life than a sparkly win-loss record, fans have not. I guess it's up to their peers to educate them, one stubborn traditionalist at a time.

Five-Minute Musings

I have a few minutes before class this morning, and thought I would post a quick rundown of recent events:

1.) The Oakland Atheltics have reportedly made a five-year, $64 million dollar offer to Adrian Beltre. According to the Globe's Nick Cafardo (as reported by Pete Abraham), the Sox are willing to go up to four years, $52 million. In fantasy land, Agent Scott Boras is claiming that the third baseman is worth five-years, ninety million dollars. So what is Beltre worth to the Red Sox? And what is being in a competitive, passionate city worth to Beltre? Last year, he turned down bigger money from the A's to come to the spotlight in Boston, but he was also looking to be showcased so he could get a big deal this year. Players don't hire Boras because team loyalty means a lot to them, so this could be interesting as it unfolds. Stay tuned.

2.) Tom Werner is looking to appease fans who were under the impression that the 2010 Sox were based on spare parts so he could fund his little soccer venture in England. [Pretend for a second that statement isn't ludicrous, that the Sox didn't have the second highest payroll in MLB last year, and that they didn't sign the biggest pitching free agent in the '09-'10 offseason. Theo said BRIDGE YEAR, so they obviously weren't trying.] He has gone on record as claiming the Sox will make a significant splash in the free agent market: “I think that we are going to sign, I won’t promise, but we’re going to sign a significant free agent. We are going to make a trade to improve ourselves,” Werner said. “I want to assure everybody that there is no bridge year here this year. [In] 2011, we’re committed to win.”

3.) The Red Sox were just honored by Major League Baseball for their charitable endeavors as an organization. From a release by MLB, via the Boston Globe Extra Bases blog: "Major League Baseball and Baseball Commissioner Allan H. (Bud) Selig have named the Boston Red Sox as the inaugural recipients of the Commissioner's Award for Philanthropic Excellence, which was created to recognize the charitable and philanthropic efforts of an MLB Club." Obviously, the Red Sox encourage their players to both be active within the Red Sox Foundation, and to support their own charities, and it seems like that work is getting some recognition. The really cool part is that this comes just week after Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield received the Roberto Clemente Award. It makes this organization easy to support.

4.) Ron Gardenhire (Twins) was named the AL manager of the year yesterday (the Padres' Bud Black took home the honor for the senior circuit). I was holding out some hope for Tito, who placed fourth, and if the Sox could have scraped a playoff berth, I really think he would have made it. People around here are constantly screaming about "Fran-coma" and how terrible he is, and how they could do his job so much better. To those people I say: SHUT UP. Terry Francona led a bag of beleaguered major leaguers and spare minor league parts to 89 wins last season. Do you honestly think you would have done any better?

5.) I would like to point out that the offseason coverage by the team over at boston.com has been spectacular thus far. Of course, I have come to expect a certain degree of excellence from the Globe, but the amount of info that they're giving us on a daily basis is more than you could expect from any other team in any other market. In particular, I would like to extend a shout-out to Pete Abraham, who is constantly updating the Extra Bases blog, and also because he's a generally nice guy (last spring, I had to do a project on athletes as role models, and Pete Abe was nice enough to answer the email I sent him, asking for imput). So, thank you Mr. Abraham, and thank you to your fellow writers on the Sox beat: without you all, we'd be even more starved for baseball.

The Periodic Table of Hall of Famers

[Click to enlarge.]

This is just too cool. I have a feeling I would like it even more if I was a chemistry and/or other sciences person. Via Larry Granillo at http://wezen-ball.com/other/other/the-periodic-table-of-hall-of-famers.html

Breaking News: I love Dustin Pedroia

This weekend, I learned that I am apparently not forthcoming enough about my personal opinion of Dustin Pedroia. Somehow, a friend of mine was under the impression that Jacoby Ellsbury was my favorite baseball player.

Now, this might be acceptable for someone who has never met me, or who knows next to nothing about the Red Sox... but the friend in question meets neither of these stipulations. Needless to say, I informed him that we are in a huge fight.

His excuse was that "Every girl I know is head over heels for Ellsbury." Excuse me, but in case you hadn't noticed, I'm not your average fangirl. I have three different posters of Sox players on my wall, and not one of them features Jacoby Ellsbury, no matter how "dreamy" some people find him.

Shockingly, THIS poster does, in fact, hang on my wall.

I've ranted about Ellsbury before, so I won't repeat myself (though I am rather proud to have coined the nickname "D-Ellsbury"), but I do want to get to the point of this post, which is, you guessed it, Dustin Pedroia.

It was three short years ago that the scrappy second baseman was named AL Rookie of the Year, and, a year later, the American League MVP. Since then, Pedroia has grown from an impressive rookie to a seasoned veteran, but he missed more than half of 2010 with injuries (which, by the way, totally ruined my summer).

So what can we expect from the feisty infielder next season? Just the usual: backtalk, dirty uniforms, laser shows, grit, spectacular glovework, tenacious hitting, and a work ethic that would make Paul Bunyan proud.

I know I should have spent today writing about THIS year's ROY winners, Neftali Feliz and Buster Posey, and I'll probably get to it later, but I was feeling particularly nostalgic for the days when Pedey was a young phenom.

And he's just so NICE.

So, for any of you who might be still confused (ahem, you know who you area), Dustin Pedroia is my favorite player. In my eyes, he can essentially do no wrong (even if the dipping is disgusting), and if I ever had the opportunity to meet him I'm quite sure I would hyperventilate. People are always talking about intangibles, and while I'm of the opinion that "veteran presence" and "calm eyes" are useless without a passable skill set ON the field, I'm equally confident that Pedey means a lot more to the Red Sox than simply his batting average, OBP, or even WAR.

And you know what else? He means the world to Red Sox Nation, too.

Best intangible ever? Adorable son.

Lefty for lefty: Andrew Miller to the Sox

Former Tigers and Marlins LHP Andrew Miller.

As some of you might have heard, the Red Sox recently (Friday) finalized a deal with the Marlins that will send left reliever Dustin Richardson to the Marlins for lefty Andrew Miller. On the surface, the two are pretty similar: both were draft picks out of college in 2006, Richardson is 6'6", 220 lbs, while Miller is 6'7", 210 lbs, and both hail from the south (Kansas and Florida, respectively).

However, this is where the similarities end. Richardson was brought along very cautiously by the Sox, as is their general pattern with pitching; he didn't make his big-league debut until September 28, 2009 against Toronto (1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 SO, 0 BB, 0 ER).

Successful debut? Yessir.

On the other hand, Miller was pitching for the big-league Tigers just twenty-two days after he signed with the club, and sixty-four days after his last game as a collegiate pitcher, debuting for the big club on August 30, 2006. The then 21-year-old pitched a scoreless eighth inning - at Yankee Stadium, no less - and I'm sure several Tigers execs patted themselves on the backs for rushing him to the bigs.

Unfortunately, Miller's success would be rather tempered after that, and he was traded to the Marlins in the winter of 2007, part of the package of players that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit.

Andrew Miller has literally never spent an entire season in the minor leagues - not even a shortened Low-A type season. His career numbers look like this: 15-26, 5.84 ERA, 294.1 IP. Dustin Richardson, on the other hand, spent all of 2006-08 in the minors, and most of 2009, and his numbers look like this: 0-0, 3.31 ERA, 16.1 IP. Miller's WAR stands at -3.8 for his career, and Richardson's is 0.3.

So at first glance, it looks like the Red Sox are getting a raw deal here. However, you all know that I trust Theo Epstein almost unconditionally, and you don't have to look all that deep to see Miller's appeal. Relief pitching is notoriously volatile, and Richardson is a young reliever coming off a generally consistent year, and so Theo is selling high, something he loves to do.

Miller is a former sixth pick overall, and he's also the former teammate of another Sox relief pitcher: fellow-2006-first-rounder Daniel Bard. Bard fell to 28th overall, where the Sox scooped him up, and kept him in the minors for three years before he made his debut in May of 2009. Bard, of course, has never looked back.

Daniel Bard (above) and Miller were light-out teammates at UNC.

Despite all of Miller's well-documented struggles, Bard still thinks he's a great pitcher, and that perhaps the Marlins tried to do just a little too much tinkering with his delivery: “The stuff was too good. The projectability with his body was there. To me, it still is. All the tools are still there. Nothing has changed. I’m sure he had some stumbles along the way he would like to get rid of, but he’s still only 25-years-old and on the cusp of being a really good major league pitcher.”

Of course, the Red Sox have some very good pitching coaches in the organization, even without the now-departed John Farrell, and I'm sure Theo has something in mind to get the still-young lefty back on track. The praise of Daniel Bard should not be taken lightly: by now, he's figured out what it takes to be an affective big-league pitcher, regarding actual skills and mental toughness, and if he thinks Andrew Miller has it, I'm inclined to trust him.




[Quote in this post from WEEI.]

Crazy for Cliff Lee (but not insane)

"The Rangers may do something crazy when it comes to Lee, but they won't do something insane." - T.R. Sullivan / MLB.com

What on Earth does that even mean? That they won't outbid the Evil Empire? I hate to be critical, but DUH. Even if the Rangers front office had half a mind to try to outbid the Yankees, such a thing is impossible (as Red Sox fans will remember). Yes, the Rangers have a lucrative new television contract... but the Yankees OWN their own network, and in the biggest market in the country.


Nolan Ryan, at least, fully understands just how hard it will be to retain Lee, but their best bet may lie with the three rules of real estate: location, location, location.

New York taxes and the cost of living (even if Lee should choose to live in New Jersey) will add up very quickly. The Rangers can offer the ace millions less than the Yankees, and the adjusted gross value after taxes and all that jazz will probably still be higher if the fireballer stays in Texas.

And, apparently Lee's wife was no fan of New York Yankees faithful:

Perhaps the Rangers' greatest sales pitch simply was having Kristen sit in the visiting family section at Yankee Stadium during the playoffs. She says there were ugly taunts. Obscenities. Cups of beer thrown. Even fans spitting from the section above. "The fans did not do good things in my heart," Kristen says. "When people are staring at you, and saying horrible things, it's hard not to take it personal." (Via Bob Nightengale, USA TODAY)

There's also the fact that both Kristen and Cliff Lee's families live a forty-minute flight away from Arlington, in Little Rock, Arkansas, and the couple recently purchased a home in the city.

Of course, the Yankees will have Lee's friend and former teammate, CC Sabathia, looking to recruit him, and the Bronx Bombers have the resources to commit more money and years to any offer they give.

The Rangers are quietly attempting to woo Lee - they haven't made any well-publicized treks across the country, but they're determined to give this their best shot, and prepared to offer him more money than any Ranger since A*Rod (remember him?).

Rangers second-baseman Ian Kinsler wants Lee to stay in Texas: "In the offseason, I'm probably going to call his phone, oh, a couple of hundred times."

You do that, Ian... Personally, I want Cliff Lee in Arlinton for a long time to come. Actually, in an ideal world, he would go to the National League, so I wouldn't have to see him mow down my boys a few times every summer - but I'll take Texas.

Come on, Jon Daniels.... Make it happen. Do something CRAZY! But not insane.