League Projections

Last year’s Major League Baseball season ended (in November, no less) with the New York Yankees jumping all over the field and spraying champagne into each others’ eyes. For some, it was the celebrated end of a drought, and for others, it was proof that everything, even baseball’s highest achievement, is for sale. However, regardless of how you feel about the Yankees, it’s time to finally put 2009 behind you, because Opening Day is here at last.

Opening Day is like New Year’s Day, the first day of spring, and release from a federal prison, all rolled into one glorious package: it’s a ritual of renewed hope. On Opening Day, the Kansas City Royals have the same record as the National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies. Fans of the hapless Nationals (yes, they have fans) can brag about the artificially inflated batting average of Adam Dunn, and Seattle fans can swear that “King” Felix Hernandez’s ERA will stay below 1.00 all season long.

However, though hope springs eternal, it will eventually be time to face the facts: baseball by its very nature wears down players, it is, as they say, a marathon, not a sprint. These men play 162 games in just over six months, and fatigue and injuries are all but inevitable (just ask the New York Mets). National and local publications have been putting out baseball previews all over the country for the last month, and though most MLB rosters will look vastly different by August, here come the projections for the end of the marathon.

NATIONAL LEAGUE:

Western Division: Both Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA rankings pick the Colorado Rockies to win the division, followed by the Dodgers, the Giants, the Diamondbacks, and then the hapless Padres. The Rockies have a solid rotation in a mediocre division, and their lineup is solid, anchored by SS Troy Tulowitski. Things to watch: Arizona’s Brandon Webb tries to recover from injury, San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum looks for a new contract, and San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez looks like trade bait. Off the Monster take: Rockies take it.

Central Division: Both ranking systems have St. Louis taking the division, with some dispute over the middle, and Pittsburgh finishing in last (yet again). The Cardinals have one of the best pitching 1-2’s in baseball, with young righties Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright (who were second and third in NL Cy Young contention), and a lineup boasting Albert Pujols. Things to watch: Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder is looking for an extension, the Astros have a new manager in Brad Mills, and the Cubs are at 101 years and counting. Off the Monster take: Cardinals win it.

Eastern Division: In another instance where SI and PECOTA agree completely, the Phillies are predicted to win it, followed by the Braves, the Marlins, the Mets, and the Nationals. Philadelphia has built an American League style lineup, and just added the best pitcher in baseball, Roy Halladay. “Doc” Halladay routinely won 17-20 games in the AL East, with an ERA hovering around 3.25. That’s death for an NL lineup. Off the Monster take: Phillies take the division, Braves take the Wild Card.

American League:

Western Division: SI and PECOTA could not be more different here: the former picks Las Angeles to come out on top, while the latter takes Texas. Though the Angels lost ace John Lackey and infielder Chone Figgens, they still have a formidable lineup and rotation, along with one of the best managers in the game. Off the Monster take: Angels take it, but the Mariners (led by Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez) will present a challenge.

Central Division: All SI and PECOTA can agree upon is that Minnesota will win the Central, and the Royals will finish last in spite of reigning Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke. Minnesota has lost closer Joe Nathan for the season, a tough break for a team celebrating an extension for hometown hero (and AL MVP) Joe Mauer. The White Sox seem to be the overlooked horse in this race, with Mark Buehrle and Jake Peavy heading the rotation. Off the Monster take: the Twins win the Central, but it’s close.

Eastern Division: In what is generally accepted to be the toughest division in the game, it’s no wonder that our two authorities disagree: SI has New York winning it, Tampa Bay second (Wild Card), and Boston in third. PECOTA has the Red Sox taking it, with the Yankees as Wild Card winners, and the Rays in third. They both agree that Baltimore will be fourth, and Toronto will mourn the loss of Roy Halladay with a last-place finish. Off the Monster take: New York takes the division, Boston the Wild Card – but it’s going to come down to the wire with the top three teams.

Tampa Bay has a legitimate MVP contender in Evan Longoria.

Of course, it’s likely that we’ll look back at these predictions and laugh – you can’t predict injuries, break-out rookie seasons, or blockbuster trades. The league’s going to look very different come October. But right now… who cares? Sit down and relax – baseball season is here again.



NOTE: THIS ARTICLE ALSO APPEARED IN THE TRINITY TRIPOD.

In Defense of JD Drew

I was in class the other day, listening in (okay, eavesdropping) on a conversation about the Red Sox. The participants seemed to have a good general grasp of the team; at least, they knew all the players - even the scrubs and the new acquisitions. However, there was one comment I just could not let go:

"JD Drew hates baseball."

Yeah, and he obviously HATES his fans, too.

Um, no. If Drew HATED baseball, he would have called it a career after the first few million bucks. Is JD the most enthusiastic player in baseball? Of course not, and you could even make the argument that he's not even the most enthusiastic guy in right field (I'm pretty sure the umpires show more passion). It's easy to see why JD has not endeared himself to the vast majority of baseball fans, but he's an extremely skilled player all the same.

JD Drew had the misfortune of replacing an absolute fan favorite in right field, the original Dirt Dog, Trot Nixon. Nixon never had a clean uniform by the third inning, as he dove all over the field, trying for any advantage he could. Not offense to Trot, but Drew doesn't NEED to do that: his physical gifts and superior positioning make diving for balls or bases unnecessary, and why risk injury when you can just as easily get there standing?

There was a fan on Twitter this evening who said Drew should soon be arrested for theft, as he steals his salary every game. This is absurd. Drew, by virtue of having the highest salary on the team, has a great big target on his back. The fans want their money's worth, and that's okay, but what most people don't realize is that Drew is a very valuable commodity.

JD Drew has a career OPS of .896. If you take out 2007, when his young son was ill for most of the season, that number jumps to .949. For a guy who is speedy enough to steal bases and get to most balls (10.5 UZR in 2009, 2nd best in baseball for his position) - in Fenway's vast right field, no less - JD is very good with his bat.

Pedroia has enough passion for the two of them.

Is baseball his passion? Of course not, and he'll never be a Dustin Pedroia or Kevin Youkilis in that regard. But a man who hated baseball would never put up the numbers he does. I was disgusted to hear the home town fans booing him on Sunday night: let's keep it classy, Boston. JD Drew earns his keep, and I'd like to see him get the appreciation he deserves.

Around the Horn; Opening Day 2010

Last year on Opening Day, I went down the Red Sox batting order, listing my favorite moment for each player. This year is a little different: because I was actually present at the game, some of the greatest moments weren't manufactured by the players, so I'll do my players list first, and then give you the best non-baseball moments at the end:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, LF: I know it might seem less than spectacular to some of you, but I was blown away by the patience Ells displayed during his at-bats last night. He struck out twice, and didn't reach base in any of his five plate appearances, but at one point I saw him take five straight pitches. I see an improved OBP in his future, and I like it.

2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B: Yesterday marked the second time in as many years that Pedey went deep on Opening Day. Last year, it gave the Sox the lead, as it came on the first pitch he saw all season, but this years was even more inspiring, tying up a game that had seemed out of reach. However, I also enjoyed the dive he took into first base, despite the fact that he was erroneously called out. I thought he was going to go all Mike Tyson on umpire Angel Hernandez.

Clearly, he was safe. Also, Sabathia is a large, large, GIANT man. How do you even get that big?

3. Victor Martinez, C: Ignoring the awkwardness in being the only person not named Jason Varitek to start behind the plate on Opening Day in many years, VMart did a good job, stroking a double in the sixth inning, and scoring the Red Sox' 4th run of the game.

4. Kevin Youkilis, 1B: YOUKKK went 3-for-4 with 2 RBI, 2 doubles, and a triple. Honestly, the triple was my favorite, mostly because it's likely the only one he'll have all year, and watching the Greek God of Sweat hustle around the bases is entertaining, to say the least.

Run, Kevin, RUNNN!!

5. David Ortiz, DH: Not a particularly impressive night for Papi, who has something to prove coming into the season. Theo is going to tolerate far fewer 0-for -3 lines this year than he has in the past. On the bright side, Ortiz managed to draw a walk.

6. Adrian Beltre, 3B: Tied things up the first time, in the bottom of the fifth. With two men on, he drilled the first pitch of the at-bat into center for a 2 RBI single. Also, made some verrry nice rabs in the field.

7. JD Drew, RF: First, let me say that it's absolutely disgusting that the home town fans were booing Drew, before he even had an appearance. For the record, he did have a hit, and I'm so over how underrated he is, especially in a town that claims to be so enlightened about baseball matters.

8. Mike Cameron, CF: They promised us a fan favorite, and I'm seeing one. Apart from snagging every ball that came near him in center field, Cameron went 2-for-3 with a walk, and a run scored. He's also rumored to be hilarious.

9. Marco Scuataro, SS: Scoots (that's what I've decided to call him) had an almost identical line to Cameron's, but with an RBI. A shortstop who can hit the ball AND catch it? Somebody pinch me.

NON-GAME FAVORITES:
Mikey Lowell got the longest ovation of anyone not named Johnny Pesky last night, and when he tipped his cap, it was obvious that he was touched. It's nice that the fans can appreciate what Mikey's done for us, and even if he's gone by May, he'll always have a place in my heart.

Pedro embracing Johnny Pesky brought tears to my eyes. Okay, Pedro's appearance in general brought tears to my eyes, but when he knelt down next to #6, I couldn't contain them. Johnny looked, well, old... and I have to admit it scared me a little, but he lit right up when Pedro was there.

Minor leaguer Ryan Westmoreland was in the house last night, and since the last thing we heard was that his brain surgery had been successful, I was thrilled to see he was healthy enough to come to Fenway Park. Westmoreland is not only one of the most talented prospects, he's younger than me, so it's nice to see him healthy.

This:

Bring it like Beckett

It's official. Barring some extenuating circumstances where the world gets taken over by alien rodents that elect him as their leader (or some sort of trade), Josh Beckett will be in a Red Sox uniform until 2014.



Though the fierce Texan didn't have his best stuff last night, I'm ecstatic to see him at Fenway in the foreseeable future, preferably telling Heidi Watney to shut her pie-hole and get out of his way. In all seriousness, Josh Beckett's signing means that for the next three years (at least) the Red Sox will have a 1-2-3 of him, Jon Lester, and John Lackey. Daisuke will be here too (unless his arm flies off while he's attempting to comb his hair, or something equally ridiculous), and Clay Buchholz is under Red Sox control until after the 2012 season. This rotation is absurdly stacked, and I like it a lot.

36,000 of my closest friends...

This morning, I went to the dining hall to get a quick brunch before I head off to Boston for the game, and I managed to become best friends with half of the workers, and mortal enemies with the rest.

I was sporting my "Fenway is Where I Pray" shirt, and one of them told me he liked it: "You should wear that every day," he said. I replied that it was, after all, Easter, which was good for a hearty laugh. Now, being in Connecticut means that I'm smack in the middle of the divide between Red Sox and Yankee Country, so there are a fair amount of fans on both sides working at and attending Trinity College.


At this point, one of the Yankee fans chimed in. "You'll be crying tonight," he told me with a grin. I decided not to get into CC Sabathia's April statistics, or the fact that Mark Teixeira is a notoriously slow starter. Instead, I went with something short and sweet:


"Nope. I'll be at Fenway Park, on my feet cheering with 36,000 of my closest friends."

See you there!

What [Not?] to Wear.

As most of you know by now, I'm going to Opening Day tomorrow night (what a strange sentence...). I'm having a bit of a struggle deciding which of many Red Sox shirts to wear, and I thought you guys could help me out. (Don't worry, I'll do a pitching preview tomorrow before I go!)


This one always makes me laugh. Beyond its obvious double-entendre, the shirt says "I never forget my fandom," which is certainly true of me.
I don't think I'll go with this one, mostly because I'll be in the presence of the actual Green Monster (though, alas, not atop it), and it seems strange to wear it while at Fenway Park.

My version of this shirt has "PEDROIA" and #15 on the back, so it has the wonderful duality of being a shirt that represents my favorite player and a sentiment I support.

This is the frontrunner so far, it being Easter Sunday and all. I don't want to offend anyone's religious sensibilities, though.
I bought this one for my mom last Mother's Day, and it says "MOM" #1 on the back. I know it meant a lot to her, and it's one of my favorite things to remember her by.

This one is great because it (a) rhymes and (b) it's about Dustin Pedroia. As you know, I LOVE HIM.


Again, about Dustin Pedroia. Also, I wore this to ALDS Game 4 (clincher!) and ALCS Game 5 (epic comeback) in 2008, so it's known to be lucky.Self explanitory. Opening Day is all about renewed hope and belief that your team will be playing deep into October, and I'm all for that.

So what do you guys think? Let me know in the comments, or via Facebook, Twitter, or email if you prefer. I'll take tons of pictures tomorrow, so never fear.

Happy New Year, Red Sox Nation!

I've spent much of the last week and a half screaming intermittently. Before you get all worked up, they have been screams of excitement: a few times every day, I remember that not only is Opening Day so close, I'm actually going to be there, and I simply have to vocally express my happiness.

Of course, I told all of my friends that I had tickets to Opening Day as soon as it happened, and they were happy for me, but they didn't really understand. They think they know the extent of my fandom - it's hard to ignore the constant wearing of Red Sox paraphenalia - but it's hard to truly express what this team means to me in terms that can be understood by those outside of Red Sox Nation.

My religion on Facebook is "Boston Red Sox." To put that in perspective, Merriam-Webster defines religion as "a set of beliefs concerning the cause, nature, and purpose of the universe, usually involving devotional and ritual observances, and often containing a moral code governing the conduct of human affairs." The beliefs? That the Red Sox are the best. Devotional and ritual observances? Buying hundreds of dollars worth of merchandise and tickets, and making the six-hour round trip to Fenway at a moment's notice. Moral code? Yankees suck. And voila! You've got yourself a religion!

In all seriousness, I spend more time thinking about the Red Sox than anything else: when I'm bored in class, I doodle field diagrams and possible lineups on my notebook.

My computer background is a rotating set of 20-something Red Sox pictures, including one of my favorites, which is especially fitting for today:

So, for those of you out there like me, who worship at the foot of the Green Monster, draw baseball doodles on your work, and scream intermittently (and increasingly frequently): HAPPY NEW YEAR! The wait is almost over!