Hot Stove Check-in

A lot has happened so far this offseason - and because I'm such a terribly inconsistant blogger, I'm going to take this opportunity to talk about EVERYTHING I've neglected thus far.

Let's start with the Red Sox. So far, we've replaced the manager and general manager, lost our closer (thankfully to the National League), and a starter (to Tommy John). We have a right fielder who is presumably retiring, and a few other players who might do well to consider that option.  So what's the good news? Hopefully Ben Cherington and Bobby Valentine can take the asylum back from the lunatics, and build us a winning team.  David Ortiz has accepted arbitration, and we can expect a typically good season from him, barring injury or unforeseen circumstances.

The biggest news of the offseason is the unexpected aggressiveness from both the Marlins and the Angels.  The Marlins will be moving into a new stadium soon, and it looks like they want to put the real deal out on the field, as well.  After signing Heath Bell, Jose Reyes, and Mark Buehrle, the Marlins went hard after Albert Pujols, but were beat out by the Angels.

So Pujols will stay in red, but on the west coast and (sadly for the Red Sox) in the American League.  As fun as it will be to see Pujols play more often, I don't relish watching him face off against our pitchers at Fenway.  The Angels also committed big money to former Rangers ace CJ Wilson.

I don't really expect the Sox to make any big splashes in this year's market: for one, most of the big names are already spoken for.  In addition, holes in right field and the bullpen can ostensibly be filled from inside the organization, without losing too much in translation.  The big questions won't get answered until players start reporting: will Daniel Bard start, as he's requested? If so, who will close?  Will we be seeing Josh Reddick, or maybe Ryan Kalish, in right field?

Hopefully I'll be blogging more in the next few weeks - school is winding down, and I still have my 2012 Bill James Handbook to look through... All this studying for finals is making me wait to pay attention to what really matters: baseball.

Yet another reason Japan is better then New Hampshire.

Have you ever seen anything this cool? I don't think I have...

Happy Trails, Paps.

We can now add Jonathan Papelbon's departure to Philly to the growing list of offseason things that are both sad and unsurprising. The closer's new contract joins:

1. The scapegoating and firing of Terry Francona
2. The departure of Theo Epstein to Chicago
3. The ever-growing list of rumors about the bad behavior of players
4. The fact that we have lost another starter to Tommy John (regardless of personal feelings about John Lackey, looking for a starter in this market is rather depressing)

We all knew this was coming.  Paps never wanted to take a home-town discount, and the Red Sox were perfectly content to go year-to-year with him in arbitration.  The strategy makes sense, especially when you looks at the recent lack of success the Sox have had with long-term contracts for pitchers.  Being bankrolled by John Henry and Co., the Sox can afford to overpay year after year; it's the failed gambles that trap them in terms of years that they're wary of.

But even though it all makes sense from a clinical point of view, it stings.  Papelbon was one of the few players this season who didn't make excuses, who worked his butt off all season, and who was reasonably consistent (his heartbreaking final inning notwithstanding), and I for one am going to miss him.  I trust new GM Ben Cherington to figure this out, and whtehr Bard steps in as the closer permanently or he finds someone via trade or free agency, I don't think we'll be without someone for the ninth inning.

Dan Shaughnessy (which, hilariously, my auto-correct just tried to change to "Haughtiness"), said it poignantly last week: "A natural in front of the cameras, Papelbon was Cinco Ocho. He was the guy who put the cardboard 12-pack box on his head when the Sox clinched the pennant at home against the Indians in ’07. He was the guy who wore the kilt when he rode the duck boat."

Paps loved the spotlight, and I think Philadelphia will be good for him.  We'll see if they regret giving him all those years, but one thing is for sure: the Red Sox will miss him.

World Series Review: I Suck at Predictions

 Despite worries from baseball elite that this year’s World Series would be boring and unprofitable due to the absence of large-market teams full of superstars, it turned out to be one of the most exciting Fall Classics in years.  Their worries were certainly valid, as the biggest audiences will typically tune in when teams from either coast are involved, and this Series was, as Sports Illustrated put it, “Central Casting,” with both the AL and NL Pennants going to teams far from the coasts, the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals, respectively.

The network carrying the Series also doesn’t begin to make a profit unless the two teams play five or more games in the best of seven series: since they pay Major League Baseball so much money to gain the exclusive televising rights, the advertising revenue after just four games (like the sweeps in 2004, 2005, and 2007) barely covers their cost.  If a Series reaches seven games, like this one, the network can charge huge amounts of money on advertising slots to get a return on their large investment.

 The games themselves were particularly compelling: on one side you had the Rangers, who have never won a World Series (including in their time as the Washington Senators), who were back after losing to the San Francisco Giants in last year’s Fall Classic, and who had been the no-doubt winners of the AL West for quite some time.  Across the diamond you had the Cinderella story:  the Cardinals had been ten games back in the Wild Card race with a month to play, and had just a 1.1% chance of even seeing the playoffs, before taking down the Braves to make it in, then the favored Phillies (who had been practically crowned World Champs in February), and the Brewers.

While Texas hunted fruitlessly for it’s first title, St. Louis tried to provide more incentive for free-agent to be Albert Pujols to stay with the team this offseason, and it might have worked – when asked if a repeat would be possible in 2012, Pujols grinned and said, “Why not?” 

The Series it self was compelling all the way through, as the two teams traded victories through Game 4, and then Texas gained a 3-2 advantage by winning Game 5.  If you didn’t watch what happened next, you missed a hell of a game.  Game 6 was one for the ages: the Rangers were one strike away from winning their first title – twice.  They had a two-run lead in both the ninth and tenth innings, and then David Freese and Lance Berkman (both with two strikes against them) batted in the tying runs.  Freese would hit a walkoff home run in the bottom of the eleventh inning to send the Series to its seventh game.

 After the drama of Game 6, Game 7 was slightly less exciting, as the Cards earned the lead in the third and never relinquished it.  Hometown boy David Freese was named World Series MVP, and the city of St. Louis earned the right to party in the streets for the second time in five years.  Despite the absence of a big-market team, this World Series was one for the ages – it’s only too bad that it’s over.

Surprise! John Lackey "needs" Tommy John

So there's your answer, Red Sox Nation.  While we've all been wishing for Theo to take John Lackey with him to Chicago, new GM Ben Cherington and the front office had their own plan in mind.  It was obvious to everyone that Lackey simply could not spend 2012 in a Red Sox uniform, especially once you added the allegations (and then confessions) of drinking and general gametime shenanigans to a moribund record that spoke for itself.

So John Lackey, like Daisuke Matsuzaka before him, will disappear onto the disabled list for the foreseeable future, while the Red Sox staff looks to clean up their act - and their collective reputation.  It is a rather neat solution, though it won't save John Henry and Co. any money.  I'm guessing they shopped him around, saw absolutely no one was biting, and decided to relegate the big righty to baseball purgatory.

I know many of you had worked out elaborate trade scenarios for getting rid of Lackey, and some had genuine merit for all parties involved, but you can't really be surprised that no other team wanted to take a chance on the overpaid hurler.  Lackey just turned thirty-three, he has a body type that doesn't age well (even before the now infamous weight gain of 2011), and he hasn't performed at a particularly high level in over two years.

Add to all of this the fact that he is owed more than $45 million for the next three years (a huge sum for a pitcher who has never logged a season ERA lower than 3.01, and that just once - his career ERA is over 4), and Lackey is a pitching pariah, without even tackling the allegations that he was one of the ringleaders of the *ahem* unprofessional behavior in the clubhouse this season.

All of these factors make for the perfect equation for the baseball cynic: banishment to pitcher hell.  Of course, Lackey has had documented elbow trouble, something the Sox brass were aware of when they signed him, which is why the team option for 2015 will now be at the Major League minimum (this vested with the news of Tommy John surgery).

This seems like a win-win for fans.  We've all been screaming to get him gone, and this will certainly see him out of sight for an extended period of time; the money is a bummer, but the Sox would have been eating most of the contract even if they had managed to scrounge a trade partner.  If the surgery is particularly successful, perhaps Lackey will return in 18 months better than we've seen him, and hopefully having eaten a large serving of humble pie (and very little actual pie).

And if not? Well, I'm sure management can come up with another creative solution for the John Lackey problem when the time comes. For now, it's out of sight, out of mind. Hasta luego, Lackey... I won't be missing you.

"World Series munchies"

Trinity's meal plan is advertising "game-time munchies." I do enjoy the Rangers and Cardinals logos slathered in butter, though. So classy.

World Series Preview: 2011

 Typically you would examine starting pitching matchups very carefully when attempting to predict the outcome of a seven-game series like the Fall Classic, but this postseason has been anything but typical for the hurlers of the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers.  During the LCS, the Card’s starters managed just one win in their six games, and posted an atrocious 7.03 ERA, while the Rangers’ starting staff didn’t do much better: zero wins in six games with an ERA of 6.59.

            Not a single Rangers starter has managed to make an out in the seventh inning all postseason, and there has never been a World Series Champion that could make that dubious claim.  On the other hand, both teams are averaging less than five innings out of their starters per game during these playoffs, and the last team to win the Fall Classic with that distinction was the 1960 Pittsburgh Pirates.  Both teams have relied heavily on their bullpens thus far, so it should be interesting to see how the pitching situation shakes out.

            Assuming starters can stay in the game for a reasonable length of time, the Rangers have the edge, despite the fact that the National League Cardinals have home-field advantage by virtue of the NL winning this year’s All-Star Game.  The Cards were just 20-20 this season against left-handed pitchers, and Texas boasts three southpaws in their playoff rotation. CJ Wilson will start the Series off tonight against Chris Carpenter (RHP).  Wilson has turned into a bona fide ace for the Rangers in the last two years, making a seamless transition from his bullpen days.  Tomorrow night will see righthander Colby Lewis starting for Texas, with lefty Jaime Garcia taking the mound for the Cards. The Rangers round out their rotation with lefthanders Derek Holland and Matt Harrison on Saturday and Sunday, while the Cards will counter with righties Edwin Jackson and Kyle Lohse.

            Star power is provided by the Rangers’ Ian Kinsler (2B), Josh Hamilton – hero of the 2008 Home Run Derby (CF), and Adrian Beltre (3B), while the biggest story on the Cardinals’ side of things is free-agent to be Albert Pujols (1B).  The Cards do have other star players (left fielder Matt Holliday, right fielder Lance Berkman), but the big questions revolve around Pujols: will he follow the dollars to greener pastures this offseason, or will he stay in baseball-crazy St. Louis? And either way, will he lead the cards to another Championship?

            The last time the Cardinals won the World Series was just fie seasons ago in 2006 – just two years after being swept from the Series by the Boston Red Sox.  The Rangers have a similar feel of unfinished business to them, as they return to the Fall Classic after falling to the San Francisco Giants in just five games last October.  The consensus in the baseball world seems to be that Texas has a pretty strong edge – even though they will not enjoy home field advantage – but that expecting St. Louis to bow out in four games would be just another fallacy. Texas should take it, but we’ll give them six games to do so, and they’ll win their very first World Series in their fifty year history.